Eagles (-9.0) at Bears – 48.5 total

The Eagles just keep rolling. They picked up their 12th win of the season last week versus the Giants, and they blew their divisional rivals out of the water. They racked up 48 points and 437 yards against Big Blue, and the Giants’ offense could do nothing to keep up.

Outside of one shocking defeat to the Commanders, the Eagles have barely had a wrong step this season. They’ve dominated on both sides of the ball, ranking first in points per game and third in yards per game offensively, while ranking seventh in points per game and second in yards per game on defense. Unsurprisingly, the team ranks first in the league in both yardage differential and point differential, and they’re first in overall DVOA as well.

Jalen Hurts and company should have no problems racking up points against the Bears’ defense, which has been vulnerable this season. They rank dead last in defensive DVOA, and they have a bottom four unit against the run and the pass. Hurts has looked unstoppable in recent weeks, and the Bears should provide minimal resistance.

On the other side, the Bears have reasons to feel optimistic about their future. They’re currently sitting at just 3-10, but they’ve played some of their best football in recent weeks. Specifically, quarterback Justin Fields looks like he might be an NFL-caliber starter after all. His career got off to a rocky start, but things have turned a corner as he’s looked to lean on his legs. He’s averaged over 100 rushing yards during his past seven contests, and he’s added seven scores with his legs. His passing numbers during that stretch are still nothing to write home about, but the offense has looked vastly improved.

The Bears are coming off a bye in Week 14, but it remains to be seen how much that will actually benefit them. Bye weeks have historically been more beneficial to good football teams, and underdogs are just 118-137-6 against the spread with additional time to prepare since 2003. However, large underdogs have fared a bit better, with teams getting at least seven points posting a mark of 40-41.

The biggest thing working in the Bears’ favor is that the Eagles have to play the Cowboys next week. That is a huge matchup, and those teams are already taking shots at each other. With such a big showdown on deck, it’s possible that the Eagles don’t bring their best performance to Chicago. If that happens, there’s a chance for the Bears to cover this number.