Philadelphia Eagles @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The final game of the week might be the hardest to handicap. The Eagles will travel to Tampa Bay to take on the Buccaneers, and it’s hard to get a good feel for either of these teams.

The biggest questions lie with Philadelphia. This team has an outstanding pedigree after having made it to last year's Super Bowl and having started this season 10-1. However, their early results belied some shaky performances. The Eagles won four consecutive games where they were outgained by at least 98 yards, and those kinds of performances simply weren't sustainable. Their luck ran out down the stretch, as Philadelphia lost five of their final six games.

Their last two performances have also been the most alarming. The Eagles lost to the lowly Cardinals at home in Week 17 and then dropped a must-win game on the road against the Giants in Week 18 where they were outgained by 290 total yards. Philadelphia simply got outplayed by two teams with top-six overall picks of the 2024 NFL Draft, which doesn't bode well for their odds to make it back to the Super Bowl.

The big reason for their demise has been on defense. From Week 8 onward, the Eagles have ranked an abysmal 30th in EPA allowed per play defensively. They’ve struggled mightily against both the run and the pass, ranking in the bottom-four in success rate in both departments.

But as bad as all that sounds, this is still a team with a borderline top-five offense and a QB who was among the top MVP candidates at one point this year.

New York Giants linebacker Bobby Okereke (58) goes after Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) just before sacking him in the second quarter, Sunday, January 7, 2024. Photo Credit: Kevin R. Wexler / USA TODAY NETWORK

While defense can vary from week-to-week, a potent offense is much more sustainable over the course of the season. Philadelphia still managed to finish the regular season as a top-eight team in both points and yards per game, so they have the ability to keep up in potential high-scoring playoff affairs.

On the other side, Tampa Bay managed to emerge from the extremely weak NFC South. That said, much like the Eagles, the Buccaneers didn't exactly enter the playoffs on a high note either. They lost to the Saints in Week 17 and barely beat the Panthers with just nine points on the board and a lucky fumble by D.J. Chark at the goal line. Plus, Tampa Bay's 228 total yards on offense against Carolina was hardly encouraging.

When the Buccaneers have been at their best this season, it’s been due to Baker Mayfield. In their nine wins, Mayfield has averaged 8.36 adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A). In their eight losses, he's averaged only 6.30 AY/A.

Jan 7, 2024; Charlotte, North Carolina, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield (6) passes in the first quarter at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

It’s been a major bounce-back season for Mayfield overall, as he ranks 12th among QBs in EPA + CPOE composite on the year. Mayfield has spent the past few years searching for a home after having been ousted in Cleveland, and it seems that he may have found it in Tampa.

So, which version of these Jekyll-and-Hyde teams will show up on Monday night? That remains to be seen, but the early betting numbers suggest that the sharps like the Eagles. Philadelphia has received the majority of the spread dollars per the Action Network, which has pushed this number to Eagles -3.0 across most of the industry.

Now that the Buccaneers are getting a full field goal, they’re my preferred side in this matchup. It’s hard to justify the Eagles being road favorites over any team at this point given how they fared against the Cardinals and Giants in recent weeks.

The Week 18 Massey-Peabody Power Ratings had Philadelphia as roughly 2.3 points better than Tampa Bay on a neutral field, which means that they should be approximately one-point favorites in Tampa. It wouldn’t shock me if the gap were to close a bit more following last week’s performances, so the Buccaneers stand out as a value in this game.

Still, I’m not sure that I’ll actually bet on Tampa Bay in this spot. Philadelphia still has a clear talent advantage, and they could flip the switch at any moment. Their stock is also at an all-time low, which is typically when you want to buy teams, not sell them. Personally, this game feels like a pass.