Philadelphia Eagles @ Kansas City Chiefs

After having suffered through some truly terrible primetime games in Week 10, we're rewarded with some absolute gems in Week 11. That includes Monday Night Football, which features a rematch from Super Bowl LVII between the Eagles and Chiefs. This game will be played in Kansas City with the Chiefs currently listed as slim favorites.

It’s been a bit of a weird year for both squads. Both are still really good with the Eagles leading the league at 8-1 and the Chiefs entering with a respectable 7-2 record, but each team has their share of questions despite strong records and strong play overall.

For the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, Kansas City has legitimate question marks on offense. After having led the NFL in both yards and points per game last season, the Chiefs are down to 13th and eighth in those metrics in 2023, respectively, with former offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy now in Washington.

Mahomes is still the unquestioned best QB in football, but he doesn’t have much talent to work with outside of Travis Kelce. Rookie WR Rashee Rice has shown flashes as the preferred No. 2 pass-catching option behind Kelce, but Justin Watson currently ranks third on the team with only 276 receiving yards. That’s an average of less than 35 receiving yards per game!

In fact, Kansas City's top three receiving options have totaled nearly 700 fewer yards (1,251) than the Eagles’ trio A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert (1,948) thus far, which really highlights the Chiefs’ struggles to find playmakers outside of Kelce.

Nov 5, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) scores a touchdown against Dallas Cowboys cornerback DaRon Bland (26) during the third quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Is that enough reason to be concerned? Probably not, especially with how well the Chiefs' defense has been playing. They’re fourth in EPA allowed per play, which makes them the best defense Mahomes has ever had in his young career. The days of needing to rely on Mahomes and the offense to score 40 points to win games are in the past.

On the other side, the Eagles’ offense remains as good as ever. They were third in the league in points per game in 2022, and they’re third once again thus far in 2023. Philadelphia boasts one of the most efficient rushing attacks in the league, and Jalen Hurts currently ranks fourth among QBs in EPA + CPOE composite.

However, the Eagles' defense has taken a major step back compared to last season. They lost some key contributors on that side of the ball in free agency last offseason, and while they landed some quality replacements in the draft, it hasn’t been enough.

Philadelphia ranked second in yards allowed per game in 2022, and they’ve dipped all the way to 14th in that metric in 2023. They've also gone from eight in points allowed per game last year to just 18th this season. 

From a betting perspective, you can make a case for either Super Bowl contender. While the Chiefs’ defense has impressed this season, they've struggled to stop the run with star linebacker Nick Bolton on IR, and that could spell trouble against a strong Eagles run game.

However, Philadelphia's injury-riddled secondary has forced them into shootouts this year, so perhaps this could be a breakout spot for Rice and a Kansas City passing attack that's started slowly out of the gate in 2023.

Nov 5, 2023; Frankfurt, Germany, ; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass against the Miami Dolphins in the first quarter during an NFL International Series game at Deutsche Bank Park. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Personally, getting Mahomes as a small favorite is too tempting to pass up. He’s played 20 games as an underdog or favorite of less than a field goal in his career (including playoffs), and Mahomes has gone 15-4-1 ATS in those spots. Basically, all we need Mahomes to do is win to cover the spread, and he’s really good at winning football games.

The Chiefs beat the Eagles on a neutral field in the Super Bowl back in February, and on Monday night, they’ll have home field advantage. Arrowhead is one of the few venues in football that still intimidates opponents, and I expect their fans to be out in full force for this game.

Additionally, both teams are coming off their bye, but that's especially helpful for Andy Reid to craft an offensive game plan with some wrinkles. He was able to find a flaw in the Eagles’ goal line coverage last season that led to two TDs on the same play during the Super Bowl. Who knows what he’ll find this year?

I’ve already locked in a play on the Chiefs -2.5 in our Bet Tracker, and some books have since moved the line to 3.0 points. Kansas City is a lot less appealing at that number, so make sure to grab the Chiefs at -2.5 while you still can.