Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Commanders

40. 

You know that I use a lot of numbers, metrics and stats to contextualize every bit of analysis I write about. And the game previews are no different. But if there’s any number to take away from this game, it’s 40.

It’s the number of sacks Sam Howell has taken in seven games. 

I’m pretty sure I have a stress fracture just from thinking about getting hit by an NFL player. Howell’s done it 40 times. Obviously, with that many shots, he leads the league in sacks taken by a QB. The gap from Howell to Daniel Jones with the second-most sacks (28) is the same gap going from Jones to Lamar Jackson, who has the 11th-most. And after watching the Eagles’ defense on Sunday night, Howell is in store for a few more this weekend.

But before we figure out if Howell can stay upright or not, let’s look at the Eagles’ offense real quick. 

Actually, Philadelphia’s offense is pretty straightforward, fantasy-wise. Jalen Hurts, currently the QB2, has the sixth-most passing yards and second-most rushing yards of any passer. His turnovers (one per game over his last three) are a nuisance, but he’s had more than 20 yards on the ground (the equivalent of an interception or lost fumble) in every match.

A.J. Brown is another easy start. The Eagles’ WR1, who just made history, had 15 targets on Sunday night. Besides, Brown already smoked the Commanders’ defense for 175 yards and a score back in Week 4. Fantasy managers don’t need to worry about him.

Feb 12, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, US; Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown (11) before action against the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII at State Farm Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

D’Andre Swift still owned 68.9% of the snaps and posted a higher success rate on his 15 attempts than Kenneth Gainwell’s eight, although it was Gainwell who got in the box. Dallas Goedert now has five or more targets in three straight games. Everyone with an Eagles’ skill-position player is happy with the results. 

Well, except for DeVonta Smith managers.

While Smith has looked elite off the field, the Eagles’ WR2 has had less-than-elite results on the field. He has fewer yards on the season than Tank Dell. Dell hasn’t played a full game since the beginning of the month. Jake Bobo, Seattle’s backup WR, has twice as many touchdowns. But from an opportunity standpoint, not much has changed for the Slim Reaper.

• Target Share: 24.7% (through Week 7 of 2022), 21.9% (2023)
• Air Yard Share: 32.1%, 31.3%
• TPRR: 20.0%, 17.9%

Slight dips, but nothing drastic. If the Commanders try and bottle up Brown in their rematch, let’s see if Smith can rebound against a secondary allowing two or more touchdowns in four straight games.

On Washington’s side, it feels like a gamble starting any of the pass-catchers attached to Howell. Not just because of his penchant for getting dropped by the defense (40!) but the number of options he has in the passing game. In the last month of games alone, the number of guys with a target share over 10.0% makes it tough to trust any of them:

• Overall target share: 4
• Red-zone share: 4
• Obvious passing situations: 4
• Downfield: 5

Luckily, Terry McLaurin has started to separate as the WR1, giving us some clarity. He’s the only Washington WR with a target share over 20.0%, and his 34.1% air yard share ranks in the Top 20 at his position. With the Eagles’ front limiting opposing rushers to a maximum of 53 yards in a single game, the Commanders will have to rely on their passing attack. If so, look for McLaurin to shine in his third consecutive game.