Eagles at Cowboys

The Eagles come in reeling off their 42-19 shellacking at the hands of the 49ers. While there is likely a lot of deflation in the Eagles' locker room right now, the fact that that mammoth game is in the rear view mirror may also be a good thing. The Eagles still maintain the number one seed in the NFC and still lead the NFC East—with the tiebreaker over the Cowboys. 

The narrative on Philadelphia has changed as well. They enter this game not as trumpeting favorites or heroes, but as +3.5 road underdogs, which is insane when you think about it given that they have gone 24-3 straight up in the regular season since the start of 2022 in games that Jalen Hurts has started and finished. 

Certainly that record shouldn’t distract us from the fact that the Eagles have some issues right now, and that those issues were exploited (in spades) by the 49ers Terminator-like efficiency on offense. Philadelphia’s defense has eroded this year to the point where they are 28th in EPA per play and 20th in success rate against the pass. Making matters worse this week, they face MVP co-favorite Dak Prescott who is second in EPA + CPOE composite and QBR ranking. 

Prescott’s stats have all come from his most recent output surge, as well, and he enters this game having compiled 2,173 yards, 21 touchdowns, and just two interceptions over his last seven games—with a passer rating of 121.5 over that span as well. The Cowboys are also 6-1 over that seven-game span.

Nov 30, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) throws a pass against the Seattle Seahawks during the second half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The gaudy stats are great, and certainly fans are pleased with the run they are on, but all that recent history won’t mean much if they lose this game. The Cowboys' win over the Seahawks last week marked just their first win in 2023 over a team with a winning record, and they still trail the Eagles in the divisional race. 

The good news is that the Cowboys showed they can hang with the Eagles in that first game, and also that they may even be the better team at the end of the day. Dallas had some poor red zone luck against Philadelphia in Week 9 and outgained the Eagles 406 - 292 in terms of total yards. 

CeeDee Lamb, who now ranks 3rd in PPR points per game for fantasy purposes, had his way with the Eagles' secondary in Week 9 (11-191-0) and lately has seen off-season addition Brandin Cooks step up more and more as coverage has tilted in Lamb’s direction. 

The Eagles have allowed the most fantasy points and most receptions to opposing WRs this year already, and Cooks’s emergence is bad news for a secondary that is under the microscope after allowing 4 TDs to the 49ers' WRs and over 11.0 yards per attempt against. 

So how does Philadelphia win? By turning this into a track meet and hoping that MVP candidate Jalen Hurts is the last man standing at the end of all the chaos. Hurts is on pace to break Cam Newton’s rushing TD record (14) for QBs and also throw for more TDs and yards than he did last year in his injury-shortened, 15-game campaign. 

The Cowboys' corners did get exposed last week against the Seahawks, allowing 3 TDs and 8.1 yards per attempt to Geno Smith and will certainly have their hands full against DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown.

However, Dallas also produced a big turnover in that game, and, on the season, their 13 INTs as a group is tied for third among all defensive units. Ultimately, the combination of CBs Stephon Gilmore and Daron Bland give them a better shot at grabbing some key gamebreaking plays and turning the tide in their favor, in a game that is almost assured to be dominated by the offenses. 

The Cowboys opened at -2.5, but the line has shot up to -3.5 already, even before mid-week. I don’t expect it will drop much either. If you like the Eagles, then acting now might be your best bet. It’s likely we’ll see some Philadelphia fandom and public money take the +3.5 on offer, just given how good the Eagles have been for bettors over the last couple of years. 

I would rather be on the Dallas side, but waiting for -3.0 to appear (likely on the weekend if it does) would be the way to play the spread in that case.