Eagles (-7.0) at Giants – 44.5 total

What do the Giants have to do to get some respect from Vegas? All this team has done this season is cover the spread. They’re 9-3 against the spread this season, tying them with the Bengals for the best mark in the league. They’re a near-perfect 7-1 against the spread as underdogs, with their only loss coming in Seattle in Week 8.

The Giants are coming off a rare tie last week versus the Commanders, but that was still good enough to cover the spread as home underdogs. They actually led by a touchdown with less than two minutes to go in the fourth quarter, but the Commanders were able to score a late touchdown to send the game to overtime.

Of course, covering as home underdogs against the Commanders and doing it against the Eagles are two different animals. The Eagles have been one of the best teams in football this season, posting a league-best 11-1 through their first 12 games. They’re coming off one of the most impressive performances of the season last week against the Titans. They outgained Tennessee by nearly 250 yards of total offense and they rolled to a 25-point victory, which was the Titans first loss by more than four points since Week 2.

With the Eagles rolling, it’s easy to see why this team is favored by seven points on the road against a current playoff team. It would be tough for the Giants to keep up with the Eagles at full strength, and unfortunately, they are far from full strength. Their secondary has been ravaged by injuries of late, and top corner Adoree Jackson was unable to practice to start the week. Stud defensive lineman Leonard Williams was also sidelined, and his absence would potentially be devastating.

That said, there are some strong trends working in the Giants’ favor. For starters, teams that are as good as the Eagles tend to start seeing inflated spreads late in the year. Teams with a win percentage of at least 90% are 25-53-1 against the spread in December or later. In road games, those teams fall to just 8-32-1 in that sample.

Additionally, Jalen Hurts has historically struggled in road games. He’s just 5-11 against the spread away from Philly and the Eagles are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven road games against division opponents.

The Giants have been extremely frisky all year, and seven points feels like it might be too much. That said, I’d really like to see them get a few bodies back in the lineup over the course of the week.