Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks

Oh, how the mighty have fallen. The Eagles were sitting atop the NFC standings alone not so long ago with a league-best 10-1 record. However, back-to-back losses to the 49ers and Cowboys have dropped them to 10-3. Philadelphia still controls their own destiny for the division crown, but another loss would open the door for the Dallas to swoop in and steal the NFC East.

There is certainly no shame in losing to good 49ers and Cowboys teams, especially in Dallas last week. However, the way in which the Eagles lost those games is majorly concerning. They were outscored by a combined 75-32 in those two contests, and Philadelphia has now dropped to 11th in the league in scoring differential. They’re also only 15th in yardage differential on the season, so it’s hard to look at this Eagles team as one of the best in football.

Their big problem is on defense. Philadelphia made the Super Bowl last season on the back of their fantastic defense, but they lost a bunch of key pieces in free agency. As a result, the 2023 version of this Eagles defense has struggled mightily. They currently rank an awful 29th in EPA allowed per play defensively on the year, and they actually rank 31st since Week 8.

Week 8 was a bit of a turning point in the Eagles' 2023 season. They’ve been outgained in all six of their contests since then, and while they managed to pull out four victories over that span, it’s not surprising that their house of cards came crumbling down the past two weeks.

The Eagles are still very good offensively, but they’re not good enough that they can be a complete non-factor on defense. Still, the silver lining is that Philadelphia's offense does rank fifth in EPA per play, and Jalen Hurts ranks a respectable sixth among qualifying QBs in EPA + CPOE composite.

Dec 10, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) rolls out in the game against the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

It’s tempting to say that the Eagles will bounce back this week against the Seahawks. However, Hurts doesn’t have the greatest ATS record following a loss for his career (6-7 in that scenario for a -10.4% ROI). That’s obviously a fairly small sample size, but most elite QBs tend to be significantly better ATS bouncing back from losses.

On the other side, the Seahawks put up a good fight against the 49ers last week even without starting QB Geno Smith. They ended up losing by double digits, but they did manage to cover the closing spread with Drew Lock under center.

Dec 10, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Drew Lock (2) throws a touchdown pass against the San Francisco 49ers in the third quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

The fact that this game will be played on Monday Night Football gives Seattle a slightly better chance of getting Smith. That would be a big development, especially against a vulnerable Philadelphia secondary. After all, D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba are a formidable trio of WRs.

Smith hasn’t been quite as good this season as he was in 2022, but he’s still averaged a respectable 7.0 adjusted yards per attempt. He also ranks 14th among qualifying QBs in EPA + CPOE composite, and he ranks 15th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grade. That's good enough to put up some points against the Eagles at home.

The Seahawks will take the field as home underdogs on Monday night, which is a spot where Pete Carroll has historically thrived. He’s 18-10 ATS as a home dog, including 4-2 with Smith under center.

Most of the public money has sided with the Eagles to start the week, but the sharps are starting to see some value with the Seahawks. In fact, Seattle has already dipped from +4.0 to +3.5 at some locations, so the rest of the industry could follow suit shortly.

Personally, I’m going to continue to fade a good but not elite Philadelphia team. Although the Eagles are stronger playoff contenders than the Seahawks, I don’t think that Philadelphia deserves to be laying more than a field goal on the road against a competent team like Seattle.