Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

We have another Monday Night Football doubleheader slated for Week 3, and the first game will feature the Buccaneers at home against the defending NFC champs.

On paper, this game seems like a mismatch, but it could be closer than some people think. The Eagles are listed as just 4.5-point favorites, so Vegas certainly isn’t expecting a blowout.

Philly looked like an absolute juggernaut on their road to the Super Bowl last season. They only lost three games during the regular season, and two of them came without starting QB Jalen Hurts. 

Sep 10, 2023; Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) rushes against the New England Patriots during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

They steamrolled the NFC during the postseason, and ultimately came up just a bit short against the Chiefs. Overall, they were first in yardage differential, third in points differential, and had phenomenal units on both sides of the ball.

It’s only been two weeks, but is there cause for concern in Philly?

The short answer is probably no. The team is arguably just as talented as they were last year, and they’ve managed to win their first two games. They haven’t been nearly as impressive as teams like the Cowboys and 49ers, but you can’t have more wins than the Eagles do at this point in the year.

Still, it is worth noting that there has been a noticeable dropoff in production. 

The offense has still been effective, ranking fifth in points and 11th in yads, but the passing game has been a bit shaky. Hurts has averaged just 6.4 adjusted yards per attempt, which is two full yards lower than his mark from last season. In terms of EPA + CPOE, Hurts is merely 15th among 32 qualified quarterbacks.

That’s not a huge issue over just two games – Patrick Mahomes ranks merely 14th in the same time frame, and he’s arguably the best QB that ever lived – but it is something to monitor.

The bigger concern is the defense. The team lost some key contributors from last year’s squad in free agency, including Javon Hargrave, C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and T.J. Edwards. They used two first-round draft picks to help fill those holes, and defensive tackle Jalen Carter looks like a future star. Still, their production has been lackluster.

The Eagles allowed the second-fewest yards per game in 2022, but they’re down to 26th in 2023. In terms of points per game, they’ve dipped from eighth to 16th. It’s not like the Eagles have faced a gauntlet of a schedule, either. The Patriots are expected to be a weak offensive team this season, while the Vikings are merely an above-average unit.

The pass defense has been particularly porous. They’re 31st in net passing yards per game allowed, and they’re 22nd in yards per attempt.

There’s still plenty of time for the Eagles to turn things around, but it’s reasonable to be a bit skeptical of this unit at the moment. That’s particularly true if James Bradberry and Reid Blankenship are forced to sit out for the second straight week.

The good news for Philly is that they’re facing a weak Buccaneers’ offense on Monday.

Like the Eagles, the Buccaneers have managed a 2-0 start this season. However, their success has been a lot more smoke and mirrors. They were outgained by the Vikings by 127 yards in Week 1, but Minnesota shot themselves in the foot with three turnovers. Minnesota lost that game more than the Buccaneers won it.

Their win in Week 2 over the Bears was also less impressive than the final margin might suggest. They were up merely three points late in the fourth quarter before Justin Fields threw a pick-six to a defensive lineman.

Sep 17, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker Cam Gill (49) sacks Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) and forces him to fumble the ball during the second quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Tampa did manage 437 yards in that contest, but that feels more like a testament to how bad the Bears are than how good the Bucs are. Chicago was also shredded by the Packers in Week 1, and their offense wasn’t nearly as impressive in Week 2 vs. the Falcons.

From a betting perspective, this is setting up to be a classic “sharps vs. squares” spot. The public will undoubtedly be on the Eagles, especially since this line has dipped from seven on the advance spread to just 4.5.

However, the sharps appear to like the Bucs in this spot. They’ve received 66% of the early dollars on just 42% of the tickets (per the Action Network), which is a pretty significant discrepancy. The fact that this number has also moved towards the Bucs is another indicator that the pros like the underdog.

Ultimately, I think this number is about right. I have the Bucs as roughly 6.5 points worse than the Eagles on a neutral field, so factoring in home-field advantage puts this number at around five.

If this line dips to 4.0, I might have some interest in the Eagles, but this seems pretty accurate.