Week 7 features a big NFC South showdown between two playoff hopefuls. The Buccaneers are currently leading the division at 3-2, but the Falcons are right on their tail at 3-3. The Saints are also in the mix at 3-3, so this is shaping up to be a three-horse race. Getting a big divisional win over one of your rivals this early in the season could have massive implications.

Both of these squads are coming off losses in Week 6. The Buccaneers suffered a 14-point loss to the Lions, and while there’s no shame in losing to Detroit, the game was still far less competitive than expected. They closed as just three-point home underdogs, but they were outgained by nearly 130 yards.

Still, the Buccaneers have been far better than expected. Their defense has been a bright spot, ranking eighth in points per game. They’re also 11th in EPA/play against, and they’ve been particularly stout against the run. They’re third in EPA/rush against, which matches up beautifully for their matchup vs. the Falcons.

Atlanta has been an average team this season, but their offense is predicated around being able to run the football. They’re dead-last in Pass Rate Over Expectation, throwing the ball nearly 14% less than the average squad in their actual game environment.

Unfortunately, the Falcons haven’t been nearly as successful on the ground as they were last season. They’re 20th in EPA/rush and 28th in rushing success rate, so their rushing attack isn’t good enough to beat teams by itself.

Dec 24, 2022; Baltimore, Maryland, USA;  Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder (4) looks down fire during the first half against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

When the Falcons have been forced to pass, things have gone about as poorly as expected. Desmond Ridder is still young, but it’s becoming harder and harder to justify his position as the team’s starting quarterback. He’s 29th in EPA + CPOE composite, and he’s dead last among qualified passers in Pro Football Focus passing grade.

Ridder’s struggles were on full display last week. While his overall numbers weren’t awful – 307 yards and two touchdowns – he had three fourth-quarter drives with his team down by one score. Those drives ended with two interceptions and a turnover on downs.

In short, when this team is forced to pass, they are unable to do so.

The Falcons were unable to cover as small home favorites vs. the Commanders, who were a far easier matchup on paper. Now, they’ll attempt to cover as small road underdogs.

While homefield advantage has decreased massively in recently years – some people believe it’s worth less than one point in 2023 – getting the Bucs at less than a field goal is pretty appealing. Not only is Tampa Bay the better defensive team, but Baker Mayfield is far superior to Ridder.

I did not have Mayfield being an above-average starter on my 2023 bingo card, but that’s been the case so far. He’s 10th at the position in EPA + CPOE through the first six weeks, and he’s 12th in PFF grade. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter if you’re looking at the numbers or grinding the film: Mayfield has been pretty good.

Even if he regresses a bit, I think it’s safe to say that he’s better than Ridder. The prospect of getting a sizable quarterback and defensive edge while sacrificing only 2.5 points is too tempting to pass up.

The sharps and public both seem to like the Buccaneers in this matchup. Tampa Bay has secured 74% of the tickets and 86% of the dollars to start the week (per the Action Network), and if that continues, this line will likely move to 3.0. I’m locking in the Bucs -2.5 while I still can.