Falcons at Commanders (-4.5) – 41.0 total

The Commanders are flying high at the moment. The NFC East has shockingly been the best division in football this season, with all four teams posting winning records. The Commanders got off to a slow start this season, dropping four of their first five games, but they’ve turned things around since then. They’ve won five of their past six contests, with their lone loss coming against the Vikings. The Commanders held a 10-point lead in the fourth quarter of that game, so they could very easily be riding a six-game winning streak.

The big reason for their turnaround has been replacing Carson Wentz with Taylor Heinicke at quarterback. Heinicke’s numbers aren’t significantly better – he’s averaged 6.4 adjusted yards per attempt with five touchdowns and four interceptions – but he’s been far more aggressive pushing the ball down the field. More specifically, he’s been far more willing to lean on Terry McLaurin. McLaurin has a 31.6% target share and 54.6% air yards share since Heinicke took over, both of which are among the best in the league. Turns out that getting the ball to your best players is a good thing. Who knew?

On the other side, the Falcons are sitting at 5-6, which puts them just half a game behind the Buccaneers for the top spot in the NFC South. They’ve been better than expected on the offensive side of the ball, ranking 12th in the league in points per game.

However, the Falcons have clearly been a bit fortunate. They rank just 26th in the league in yards per game, which suggests they’ve struggled to consistently move the ball. When combined with their subpar defense, they rank 31st in the league in yardage differential.

They’re also going to have to overcome an injury to Kyle Pitts. The second-year tight end has struggled to live up to expectations after being drafted fourth overall in 2021, but he’s been a huge part of their offense of late. He’s racked up 30.3% of their targets and 36.5% of their air yards over their past five games, both of which lead the team by a wide margin.

This also sets up a brutal matchup for them. The Commanders have one of the best run defenses in the league, anchored by defensive tackles Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. They rank second in rush defense DVOA, and the Falcons rank second in run rate over expectation.

There’s also a chance that Chase Young returns to the lineup in this game, which would give the Commanders another boost on defense. Overall, they should be able to take care of business.