Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars

The Jaguars went off as -7.5 favorites in their game last week and proceeded to get spanked by the Houston Texans (whom they are now tied with at 1-2) in pretty much every facet of the game. 

The play of Trevor Lawrence (279-1-1, 3-12) this year has to be a little concerning for the Jaguars organization. While not all of the Jaguars' early season struggles belong on his shoulders, Lawrence has regressed in nearly every metric so far in 2023 and his -0.171 EPA per play metric is third-worst among all starting quarterbacks—ranking him behind such luminaries as Ryan Tannehill and Sam Howell. 

It’s still early and a three-game sample size is incredibly small, but Lawrence also plays in a weaker division and got a major upgrade in his receiving core this year with the addition of Calvin Ridley (3-40-0). Speaking of Ridley, he posted his second weak line in a row and only managed an 18% target share in Week 2, even with starting WR Zay Jones not suiting up. 

One encouraging note on Ridley is his continued usage downfield. He had a couple near misses against the Texans that could have gone for big plays and has a 38% air yards share through three weeks. He’ll have a tougher matchup against physical corner AJ Terrell in Week 4 but has a strong narrative factor with him going up against his former team. 

It’s not panic time yet, but considering that the Lions were able to average a healthy 7.4 yards per attempt against the Falcons, if Lawrence and Ridley can’t get it together this week, there will be legitimate cause for concern going into Week 5. 

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Travis Etienne Jr. (1) rushes for yards against Houston Texans cornerback Shaquill Griffin (0) during the second quarter of an NFL football matchup Sunday, Sept. 24, 2023 at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla. The Houston Texans defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 37-17. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union]

One player the Jaguars don’t need to panic on is RB Travis Etienne Jr. (19-88, 4-50) who has done everything in his power to keep the Jaguars in games. While there were rumblings that Etienne might lose big snaps to Tank Bigsby (2-10-1) this year, that hasn’t occurred and doesn’t seem likely to happen anytime soon. 

Atlanta has been a mostly middling run defense thus far but allowed some big gains to Jahmyr Gibbs (4.7) last week down the stretch. Etienne was one of the leaders in explosive plays (20+ yards) in 2022, and seeing him break free for a long TD this week wouldn’t be overly shocking. 

If Atlanta can keep a cap on Etienne, they certainly have a fighting chance. The Jaguars' defense got beat numerous times for big plays last week and have only managed six sacks on the season. The issue for Atlanta is that while the Jaguars' coverage breakdowns hurt them against a stout pocket passer like C.J. Stroud, the Falcons' rush-first mentality feeds directly into the Jaguars' strengths as their defensive line has only allowed 3.4 yards per carry on the season. 

It could be another tough go for Bijan Robinson (10-33, 4-27), who was shut down last week by a solid defensive line in Detroit. The Falcons allowed Desmond Ridder (201-0-0, 2-3) to get sacked seven times last week, and overall, Ridder has been the fourth most-sacked quarterback to date—not great considering the Falcons are also just 26th in pass play percentage. 

As poorly as the Jaguars have played to start the year, this matchup really does scream “more of the same” from a Falcons angle. They’re taking on a team in the Jaguars who are likely going to employ the same approach Detroit did, which is to “dare” Atlanta to beat them through the air. 

You’d like to make an argument that Atlanta is capable of responding—and certainly having weapons like Drake London (2-31) and Kyle Pitts (5-41) makes this a tantalizing proposition—but the fact remains that those players are afterthoughts in this offense that is built around “establishing the run,” getting a lead, and then grinding out the clock. 

With the Falcons' offensive line pass-protecting poorly, and their secondary regressing last week, a similar outcome to the Detroit game (a 20-6 loss) seems like it could be on the table for one-dimensional Atlanta.