Falcons at Ravens (-7.5) – 37.5 total

The big question for the Ravens this week is who will be starting at quarterback? Lamar Jackson has missed the past two games with a knee injury, and he sat out of Tuesday’s practice to start the week. With the Ravens playing a day earlier than usual, Jackson is going to need to get back on the practice field by Thursday if he has any shot of suiting up against the Falcons.

If Jackson is unable to go, Tyler Huntley should start his third consecutive game. Huntley has the reputation for being a decent backup quarterback, and he is capable of racking up some fantasy points with his legs. However, his work as a passer leaves a lot to be desired. He’s averaged just 4.31 adjusted yards per attempt in his two starts this season, and he’s yet to throw a single touchdown.

The Ravens’ offense has struggled with Huntley at the helm, averaging less than 10 points over their past three contests. That includes just three points last week against the Browns, who rank just 26th in defensive DVOA.

The Falcons do represent a strong matchup for the Ravens on paper – they rank 30th in defensive DVOA – but it’s very tough to have much confidence in them at the moment. Baltimore should be able to run the ball effectively, but only if Huntley proves that he’s capable of keeping defenses honest with his arm.

On the other side, Desmond Ridder will make his second start for the Falcons. The Falcons managed to lose by just three points in Ridder’s first outing, but it was not due to their young quarterback. He was pretty miserable, completing just 50% of his passes for 97 yards. He didn’t turn the ball over, but he did take four sacks and failed to record any touchdowns. Ultimately, he averaged just 3.73 adjusted yards per attempt, which is significantly worse than Marcus Mariota’s average for the year (7.0).

Things don’t figure to get any easier for Ridder this week. The Ravens’ defense hasn’t been quite as dominant as they’ve been in years past, but they’ve improved as the year has progressed. They’re up to eighth in defensive DVOA, and they have a top-10 unit against the run and the pass.

Regardless of who is at quarterback for the Ravens, expect both teams to lean on the ground game in Week 16. The Falcons rank 31st in pass rate over expectation this season, while Baltimore has run the ball at the fifth-highest rate over their past three games.

That could make the under an appealing option. Unders have done well in general this season, posting a record of 123-100-1, and the under has gone 20-14-1 since 2003 in games between teams averaging at least 150 rushing yards per game. Running the ball keeps the clock moving, and both of these squads average more than 164 rushing yards per game.