Atlanta Falcons at Tennessee Titans

The Falcons managed to grind their way to another win last week when they downed the Buccaneers 16-13. Despite their penchant for playing in ugly games, you do have to credit Atlanta for consistently coming out on the right side of these matchups. They are now 4-3 on the year, and their four collective wins have come by a mere 20 points (with 14 of those points coming from their Week 1 win over the Panthers). 

One big shift that has happened with Atlanta over the past few games is their transition to a slightly more pass-based offense. The Falcons were running the ball on 55% of plays back in 2022, but to date have only run on 46% of plays in 2023. That’s still near the top of the league, but as their efficiency on the ground has wavered, so has their patience in sticking with the run. 

Teams facing Atlanta have done well at stacking the box, and that’s meant Desmond Ridder has therefore been tasked with winning the Falcons more games. While he has produced a 2-2 record over his last four starts, his turnovers are starting to pile up. After throwing three INTs against the Commanders (a game they lost), Ridder fumbled the ball three times for Atlanta in the red zone last week, each of which resulted in a turnover. 

Oct 22, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Atlanta Falcons quarterback Desmond Ridder (9) drops back top pass against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the third quarter at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

The glass half-full story suggests that the Falcons winning despite this insane level of inefficiency should be commended, but the fact remains that teams that force Atlanta to the air will benefit from Ridder having to make more critical decisions. 

Enter Tennessee, who is 4th in yards per rush attempt against (3.6 YPC) and has remained a classic funnel to the pass kind of defense ever since Mike Vrabel took over as head coach. Ridder will certainly have his chances to win this game for Atlanta, and he’ll likely need to again. Bijan Robinson was held under 50 yards rushing and under 4.0 YPC in three of his previous four starts before Week 7 (illness), and Tennessee hasn’t allowed one RB (Zach Moss in Week 5) to average over 4.5 YPC against them this season. 

What makes this game dicey, if you want to back Tennessee, is the Titans' offense, which ranks 22nd in overall offensive DVOA and will almost certainly be without starting QB Ryan Tannehill (ankle) this week. Of course, Tannehill’s absence could be looked on as a good thing. He’s not a spring chicken anymore and has looked completely cooked at times in 2023, entering Week 8 with a terrible 2 TD - 6 INT split through 5.5 games. 

As of now, the early talk is that the Titans may actually split reps at QB between rookie Will Levis and Malik Willis. Willis has not looked good in his limited NFL action, but he’s a physical runner and would be up against a weaker defensive line than he faced in Baltimore. Levis is a complete wild card but would certainly bring more upside in the pass game and likely provide some life to DeAndre Hopkins for fantasy purposes, who would be a near bench in fantasy if Willis gets the nod. 

This will be the third week in a row that Atlanta has faced a tough defensive line and defense that projects with a weaker secondary. They are 1-1 in that span but survived last week by the skin of their teeth. The movement in this game has been toward Atlanta (-2.5), but I don’t really see the loss of Tannehill as anything but positive for Tennessee, especially against a defense like Atlanta that is good in coverage but doesn’t produce a ton of sacks (13 – 4th fewest) or turnovers (6 – 7th fewest). 

Mike Vrabel is 28-18-1 ATS as an underdog for his career and is even better when the line gets to +3.0 or larger. You probably don’t need to rush out and bet Tennessee if you like them as there is a chance the line breaches that 3.0 mark once Tannehill finally gets ruled out.