Falcons at Saints (-3.5) – 43.5 Total

The Desmond Ridder era begins this week for the Falcons who sent Marcus Mariota to IR over their bye. Ridder was a third-round pick but the second-overall quarterback taken in last year’s draft. There were some rumors that a lot of teams considered him the player with the best pure upside at his position and it’s worth noting that he improved every year during his college career, throwing for 8.8 yards per attempt and 30 TDs (against just 8 INTs) in his senior season. Ridder also ran for 28 TDs in four seasons of college football and his mobility out of the backfield may be somewhat overlooked as to how effective he can be in the pro game. 

Despite the best(worst) efforts of both these teams, Ridder also finds himself making his professional start in a game that has legitimate meaning in terms of the NFC playoffs. The 5-8 Falcons still stand just one game behind Tampa Bay and could move into a tie for first if they grab a win and Tampa Bay loses out to Cincinnati (the Bucs are +3.5 underdogs). The Saints aren’t dead yet either, although a loss would likely finish them. 

The Saints have underperformed in pretty much every metric this year yet have stuck with Andy Dalton even as he’s accumulated a 1-4 record over the last five games. New Orleans ranks below average in both offensive rush and pass DVOA with Alvin Kamara potentially on pace to set career lows in the yards per rush metric and TDs. Kamara hasn’t exceeded 3.5 yards per carry in any of the Saints' last six games but will be taking on an Atlanta rush defense that has started to show some regression of late, allowing over 80 yards to an opposing RB in three of their last four starts. 

Neither of these offenses feels likely to move the ball with any sustainability. Ridder’s mobility and live arm could breed some excitement into this game but his upside could be capped by the conservative approach favored by HC Arthur Smith. Falcons WR Drake London is one potential breakout candidate who comes in averaging over 14.0 yards per catch in his last two games. His receiving yardage prop is under 45.0 this week and he takes on a Saints secondary against whom he posted 5 rec. for 74 yards in Week 1. 

Both these teams rank below average in points scored and situation-neutral pace of play so the 43.5 game total looks very attackable to the under. Atlanta likely rallies around their rookie quarterback and it wouldn’t shock me if Ridder’s mobility set up some kind of late score and a Falcons win. 

Still, neither of these teams are elite in any singular aspect so expect a sloppy game with the team who makes the least mistakes to eventually win out.