Fantasy Football Strategy. Drafting from the 1.07 in 2023.

Oh no. You got stuck at the 1.07.

You’ll miss out on the elite WRs and Christian McCaffrey. Plus, Travis Kelce might not be there. Unfortunately, your luck put you in a weak spot.

Well, maybe.

Of course, it’s not as bleak as I made it out, but drafters may look at the names off the board before their pick and envy their leaguemates. However, after looking at the first-round options and potential early builds, the 1.07 might be one of the optimal positions for the 2023 season.

Process Notes

So, I talked about drafting from the 1.03, and there’s a fair argument about the chasm between the third and seventh overall pick. But our process shouldn’t change. Let’s review a couple general tips to consider.

First Round Informs the Second Round (And So On…)

I still feel a nervous tension before my first pick in each draft. It’s the excitement of building what could be (will be!) a championship roster. But let’s not get carried away. Understanding which positions to select up top will give us a method of narrowing down what player we should take.

I’ll talk about the onesie positions (QB and TE) in a bit, so let’s focus on the RB and WR. The first round is our best chance to hit on a top scorer in either role. First-round receivers (19.9 PPR PPG) and rushers (16.8) tower over their peers typically taken just a few rounds later (14.2 and 12.2 PPG). And we have to start more than one of each.

So unless an elite option like Kelce falls to you, anchoring your core with a high-end WR or RB is the optimal open, independent of draft slot.

Early-Round QB or TE

The key word in the title is “or.”

If you don’t want to worry about who you’ll start at the onesies, it’s OK. But here’s where opportunity cost comes into play (i.e., who or what position you're bypassing). And your roster suffers if you try to fill both spots. I’ll explain.

Average PPR PPG by round

Average PPG steadily declines as we get out of the early rounds.

Spoiler alert: It doesn’t magically get better later.

So if you bypass RB *and* WR in favor of the onesie spots, your starting roster and your depth takes a hit. As a result, you’re more reliant on offseason uncertainty working in your favor. But if you’re eyeing Mark Andrews or Jalen Hurts, examine your earlier pick(s), evaluate where you’re weak, and address it over the next few rounds.

The First Round

Let’s first look at our options.

Travis Kelce could slide to this spot, and Jonathan provided excellent analysis on whether or not to take the TE1 from the 1.06. But let’s assume he’s gone. So, we have to look at the board from a value standpoint. But value can be subjective when you have so many big names to select.

Simply put, I want what I can’t find later. Whether it’s an RB with pass-catching upside or a WR in line for a 30% target share, your first pick should mirror your excitement. And honestly, Austin Ekeler has a role and situation you won’t see outside of the first round.

Ekeler was 2022’s RB1 after a legendary 42.1-point performance in Week 17. But his seasonal performance isn’t as much of an outlier as detractors may make it seem.

Despite only having a 52.7% share of the Chargers’ backfield, Ekeler was top 20 in rushing yards over expected (RYOE) and yards after contact per attempt. And, critically, he was the guy Justin Herbert looked to when the team got into scoring position.

Graph of target share and rate of team red zone carries

Ekeler was the only RB with top-5 marks in red-zone carry rate and overall target share. And not much has changed about his situation. Even with Joshua Kelly shining in the preseason, Ekeler should still be their primary back from inside the 20. Adding Quentin Johnston may lower his target share, but not where it matters the most.

The Chargers had a healthy roster down the stretch, with Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Gerald Everett on the field together. Despite the added (returning?) weapons for Herbert, Ekeler still stuck out.

Allen - 7 red-zone targets
Ekeler – 5
Everett – 4
Williams – 2

Vegas projects the Chargers to have the fifth-best weekly team total, and Ekeler will lead the backfield in carries and targets yet again. With his role, he’s been my primary target from the 1.07.

Filling Out the Early Rounds

As I said, your first pick informs your second. And by taking Ekeler, we’ve neglected the WR position. So, by using our (free) ADP Grid tool, we can see if we can balance out our roster.

Of course, if any of the WRs taken at the start of the second round slide to you, the decision becomes automatic. There’s no analysis there. But I’m grouping them with Garrett Wilson (likely available at the 2.06) to highlight the ideal WR profile for Round 2: the WR1 for their team.

Quantitatively, there’s no question about their opportunity.

A.J. Brown: 28.7% target share; 40.7% air yard share
Amon-Ra St. Brown: 27.8%; 25.8%
Davante Adams: 32.1%; 40.6%
Garrett Wilson: 24.6%; 31.6%

Chris Olave is the only other receiver boasting similar usage at a lower ADP. Regardless, pairing one of these WRs with Ekeler provides strong starters at both core positions. Based on last year’s data, an Ekeler-Wilson combo averaged 23.4 touches per game (TPG). And based on preseason action, Wilson’s contributions to the hypothetical duo should increase.

But let’s approach this exercise from another angle.

Let’s say you took Stefon Diggs at 1.07 instead of Ekeler. You’d need an RB to add to Diggs’s 6.8 touches per game to get close to our mark of 23.4 (TPG). Luckily, we’ve got a couple of choices.

Derrick Henry had the ball 23.9 times a game, and Tony Pollard got the rock on 22.5 of Dallas’s offensive plays when Ezekiel Elliot was inactive. Either combo totals nearly 30 touches a week and still offers prime starting options at the core positions. And we can apply the same process as the early rounds unfold.

Preseason news, like Jerry Jeudy’s injury, will shift the names around, but we can project workloads. As a result, we can continue to maintain a balanced roster and build a championship squad.

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