Fantasy Football Strategy. Drafting from the 1.09 in 2023.

The 1.09 spot is probably not going to get you very excited about your fantasy draft.

All of the elite receivers are going to be off the board, and you’ll likely miss out on Christian McCaffrey, Travis Kelce, and Austin Ekeler as well.

Does that mean the 1.09 is a bad draft spot? Absolutely not.

Drafting from the 1.09 allows you to go in a few different directions with your first two picks, which means you can accomplish a bunch of different draft strategies from that slot.

With an earlier selection, you might feel “forced” to draft a certain player, but we’re not locked into anything at No. 9. We can simply take whatever the draft hands us, giving our squads plenty of flexibility.

Let’s dive into one of my favorite approaches from the No. 9 slot.

Party Like It’s 1999

In our first eight draft slot previews, we’ve seen the following players come off the board: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, McCaffrey, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, Kelce, Ekeler, and Stefon Diggs. That leaves us with a choice between the remaining second-tier receivers and running backs.

Drafting RBs in the first round doesn’t feel sexy. It’s not going to get you invited to the cool kids' table in the fantasy football cafeteria. But getting a legendary season from a running back is still one of the easiest ways to build a championship-caliber squad.

I think Bijan Robinson has the path for a legendary season to start his NFL career.

Robinson will take over as the lead back for a team that loved to run the football last year. They were 31st in pass rate over expectation, with Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier, and Caleb Huntley combining for 430 carries.

You don’t spend the No. 8 pick in the NFL Draft on a running back and not feature him, so expect Robinson to get the bulk of the opportunities this year.

The Falcons have also invested heavily in their offensive line, spending the second-most cap space in the league on that unit. Overall, they have the potential to boast an outstanding ground attack in 2023.

That leaves us with a few different options in the second round (via the ADP Grid Tool):

If Garrett Wilson falls to me in the second, I’m not hesitating to grab him. Aaron Rodgers has talked him up all offseason, and Wilson had three targets, three catches, 30 yards, and a touchdown in their two preseason drives together. We know how good Rodgers’s No. 1 receivers have done in the past, so I don’t think you can take him too early.

That said, the most likely scenario is he’s off the board at that point.

If that’s the case, I’m happy to pivot to an RB-RB start and secure Tony Pollard.

Pollard was the No. 8 running back in PPR scoring last season, and he was ninth in PPR points per game. That was in spite of Ezekiel Elliott siphoning off 231 carries, 23 targets, and 12 touchdowns.

With Zeke out of the picture, Pollard should assume a solid chunk of that workload.

Ultimately, pairing him with Robinson gives us two chances to land a legendary season at the position. It also allows us to avoid the dreaded “RB dead zone” in the middle rounds and focus instead on loading up on pass-catchers.

Hammer Pass-Catchers in Rounds 3 Through 7

Since we’re set at running back, it’s time to focus on the other positions. Failing to secure a high-end wide receiver in the first two rounds puts us a bit behind the 8-ball at that position, but we can make up for it with volume.

In the third round, guys like Amari Cooper, Deebo Samuel, and Keenan Allen are all coming off the board in this range. Our rankings experts have all three players right next to each other, with Rob Waziak favoring Samuel, Matt Freedman preferring Cooper, and Ian Hartitz and Dwain McFarland opting for Allen.

Personally, I prefer Allen in this spot. He remains the No. 1 option for the Chargers, who have the potential to be one of the top passing teams in the league. They’re a prime candidate for some positive regression in 2023, with Justin Herbert throwing 8.3 fewer touchdown passes than expected last year, per Pro Football Focus.

The options aren’t quite as plentiful in the fourth round, but we are positioned to secure Christian Watson. His ADP puts him basically right at pick 40, and he’s another player our rankers are high on. In fact, McFarland touted him as one of his “my guys” in 2023:

If Watson isn’t available, it’s possible that D.J. Moore slips to pick No. 40, while DeAndre Hopkins should almost certainly be there. Both guys would be solid fallback options.

Rounds five and six are a great time to look at tight end. Darren Waller typically comes off the board around 5.09, while George Kittle is a popular option at 6.04:

Ideally, I’m looking to grab Waller in the fifth round, which sets me up to draft Jahan Dotson in the sixth.

Dotson has been a riser during the preseason, with the Commanders' passing attack looking solid under second-year quarterback Sam Howell. Howell torched opposing defenses for 265 yards and three touchdowns during his seven preseason drives, resulting in a 122.0 quarterback rating.

There’s no guarantee he maintains that level of success during the regular season, but Dotson is #good. He was elite at getting open as a rookie, so he’s poised to improve in year two.

We can close out our pass-catching shopping spree with one more receiver in the seventh round, with Brandin Cooks, Courtland Sutton, and Elijah Moore as the most likely targets. All three are ranked around WR40 by our experts, making them acceptable choices as our fourth option.

Grab an Upside Quarterback

With our starting running backs and pass-catchers intact, we can focus on landing a signal-caller. Unfortunately, waiting until the eighth or ninth round means we’re not going to land one of the premium options at the position. Guys like Jalen Hurts, Patrick Mahomes, and Josh Allen are long gone, while the next tier of QBs has also been depleted.

That said, we still have the potential to land a really good fantasy passer.

The two options that stand out here are Deshaun Watson and Anthony Richardson. Watson might be off the board by pick No. 88, but Richardson should certainly be available.

Richardson may be a rookie, but he brings elite athleticism to the position. We’re not just talking “run of the mill” quarterback athleticism, either. This guy might be the greatest athlete in NFL history to take snaps at the position.

His Relative Athleticism Score (RAS) paints him as either a quicker version of Cam Newton or a more powerful version of Lamar Jackson.

I don’t know about you, but that sounds like someone I want on my fantasy team.

When it comes to fantasy football, rushing is EVERYTHING at QB.

Justin Fields was the No. 5 QB in fantasy last season despite throwing for just 2,242 yards and 17 touchdowns. With Jonathan Taylor seemingly out of the picture, Richardson could serve as the Colts’ featured runner in 2023.

Aug 24, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) in action against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

It’s not unheard of for rookie quarterbacks to put up huge fantasy seasons. Newton scored more than 386 points as a rookie, which would have made him the QB3 in 2022.

Herbert, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson also had at least 285 points as rookies, and they did it in just 16 games. Richardson could easily join that group in 2023.

Overall, I’m happy to have him as my starting quarterback in leagues where I miss out on the top options at the position.

Target Upside and Values in the Late Rounds

The one constant in all my drafts, regardless of draft slot, is that I’m hunting for value and upside running backs in the late rounds. Your odds of finding a “league-winner” at receiver, quarterback, and tight end aren’t nearly as high as it is at running back.

This isn’t to say that you should completely ignore the other positions. If a receiver that you like is available, don’t be afraid to pull the trigger. But, in general, we want to hunt for running backs that have the potential to be every-week starters by the middle of the season.

The ideal targets in this range are young players who might have some obstacles in front of them on the depth chart. Think of guys like Kenneth Walker and Dameon Pierce from last season. Neither player started the year atop the depth chart, but they were weekly fantasy starters by the end of the year.

The other types of targets to consider are pass-catching specialists in timeshares. There will be weeks where their pass-catching ability can make them viable options, and they have an upside for bigger roles if there are other injuries at the position.

Guys like Antonio Gibson, Samaje Perine, and Jaylen Warren fit this archetype perfectly.

Final Results

Let’s take a look at one possible version of this team from the 1.09 using Underdog ADP. Of course, there’s no guarantee that each of these players will be available when you’re on the clock, but it should at least give you an idea of what you can accomplish:

Round 1 (Pick 9) – Bijan Robinson
Round 2 (Pick 16) – Tony Pollard
Round 3 (Pick 33) – Keenan Allen
Round 4 (Pick 40) – Christian Watson
Round 5 (Pick 57) – Darren Waller
Round 6 (Pick 64) – Jahan Dotson
Round 7 (Pick 81) – Courtland Sutton
Round 8 (Pick 88) – Anthony Richardson
Round 9 (Pick 105) – Jaylen Warren
Round 10 (Pick 112) – Samaje Perine
Round 11 (Pick 129) – De’Von Achane
Round 12 (Pick 136) – Damien Harris
Round 13 (Pick 153) – Jonathan Mingo
Round 14 (Pick 160) – Tyjae Spears
Round 15 (Pick 177) – Evan Hull
Round 16 (Pick 184) – Hunter Henry

I didn’t include a backup QB in this draft, but it’s something you can certainly consider with Richardson. I wouldn’t draft a second QB if I had one of the top options at the position, and while I love Richardson’s upside, there’s certainly a scenario where he busts. You could pretty easily swap out Henry as a backup tight end for a QB if that makes you more comfortable.

Whether you choose to do something like this from the No. 9 spot or go in a completely different direction, best of luck in your upcoming draft!

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