22 Fantasy Football Takeaways From NFL Free Agency

March Madness is quite the spectacle every year. No, not the college basketball tournament. I’m talking about the flurry of trades and free agent signings that regularly shift the power balance of both NFL teams as well as fantasy football teams.

22 Fantasy Football Takeaways From the First Week of NFL Free Agency

NFL free agency doesn’t have a finite end point, but the first few weeks of offseason transactions have certainly provided plenty to talk about. The Fantasy Life crew will continue to update our objectively awesome free agency tracker as future moves occur, but today’s goal is to take a step back and review the most significant takeaways through three electric weeks of March.

1. The Lamar Jackson market is not booming

There’s still plenty of time for a non-Ravens team to invest heavily in the 2019 league MVP; the latest rumor mill points to the Titans and Vikings as potential suitors. Still, the lack of effort and apparent interest from teams with far clearer holes under center is perplexing to say the least.

Lamar Jackson would constitute a QB upgrade on a majority of NFL rosters, but it’s tough to be overly annoyed at teams like the Dolphins, Patriots, Steelers, and Bears for sticking with their respective former first-round picks under center.

Additionally, the Raiders (Jimmy Garoppolo), Seahawks (Geno Smith), Saints (Derek Carr), Panthers (traded for the No. 1 overall pick), and Texans (own the No. 2 overall pick) also get at least a slight pass due to having already addressed the QB position in some way, even if their respective starters have been objectively worse than Jackson over the years.

The real head-scratching denials come from the following three teams, all of whom are tentatively expected to enter 2023 with a veteran journeyman and/or unproven younger QBs without significant draft capital.

The Commanders should have interest in Jackson considering that their current QBs are Jacoby Brissett and Sam Howell.

Brissett was legit good in 2022, having ranked third in completion percentage over expected (+2.8%) and 11th in expected points added (EPA) per dropback (+0.12) among QBs who played at least 300 snaps.

However, the other six years of Brissett's career have painted a far more depressing picture. And while it’s still too early to completely give up on Howell, just realize that the hit rate of day-three picks isn’t good.

Jacksonville Jaguars defensive end Roy Robertson-Harris (95) reaches in on Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) during the first quarter of a regular season NFL football matchup Sunday, Nov. 27, 2022 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville. [Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union] Jki 112722 Nfl Ravens Jags 19

The Falcons likewise would be lucky to land a QB of Jackson's caliber, as Taylor Heinicke and Desmond Ridder are currently the top two QBs on their depth chart.

Heinicke deserves credit for his career 12-12-1 record as a starter, but he ranks just 25th in adjusted yards per attempt (6.6), 26th in completion rate (87.2%), and 26th in fantasy points per game (13.5 PPG) among 34 QBs with 16-plus starts over the last two seasons.

Perhaps Ridder can find a way to boom in Year 2 and beyond, but just two total TDs in four starts as a rookie certainly didn't inspire confidence.

And finally, the Buccaneers have a void at QB to fill after Tom Brady's retirement, and neither Baker Mayfield nor Kyle Trask is likely to be the answer.

Yes, Mayfield has at least flashed more upside than your typical low-level QB, having set the NFL record in 2018 for most touchdown passes by a rookie (27 before Justin Herbert broke it again in 2020). In 2021, Mayfield also led the Browns to their first playoff victory since 1995.

Still, Mayfield has spent the better part of the last two seasons being an objectively bad QB. And as for Trask, his most newsworthy moment through two seasons has probably been his own coaching staff dubbing him a slow learner. That's not exactly a glowing review.

These three teams should take a long, hard look at acquiring Jackson rather than focusing on mediocre QB battles between their current options. They should all ask the NFL equivalent to an old Superbad question: Why the f*ck would it be between McLovin and Mohammad?!

2. Aaron Rodgers will allegedly be taking his talents to the Jets

Aaron Rodgers told The Pat McAfee Show last week, “Since Friday, my intention was to play, and play for the New York Jets.”

While the trade isn't official yet, the saga appears to finally be over. The Jets’ decision to hand ex-Packers WR Allen Lazard a hefty four-year, $44 million deal with $22 million guaranteed further indicates that A-Aron will truly be taking a page out of Brett Favre’s post-Green Bay playbook.

But again, nothing is official just yet.

Obviously, going from Zach Wilson to Rodgers would be an upgrade, although the potential for Lazard and perhaps even Randall Cobb to infiltrate three-WR sets could make this new offensive environment a bit more similar to Green Bay than most would have probably expected.

Of course, there is one obvious difference: Garrett f*cking Wilson, whose ceiling might as well be the moon should this trade eventually take place.

3. The Giants are building around the artist known as Vanilla Vick

New York locked down Daniel Jones with a four-year, $160 million deal that includes $82 million guaranteed, but it was their auxiliary moves that really add credence to the idea that their rising fifth-year signal-caller could take a leap as a passer in 2023.

You see, the 2022 Giants boasted a rather brutal group of pass-catchers entering Week 1. PFF ranked them 22nd, and even that seemed generous. Either way, that was before their projected Week 1 starters at WR wound up providing next to nothing all season.

Kenny Golladay drew mannequin comps from training camp and made exactly *one* notable catch during his 6-81-1 campaign. Kadarius Toney played a total of 35 snaps due to a “hamstring injury” prior to being traded to the Chiefs before Week 9 and doing his best Kevin Nash impression. And finally, Sterling Shepard tore his ACL in Week 3 because God refuses to turn off injuries for whatever reason.

Jan 21, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; New York Giants quarterback Daniel Jones (8) hands the ball to running back Saquon Barkley (26) against the Philadelphia Eagles during an NFC divisional round game at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

I'll give credit to the likes of Darius Slayton, Isaiah Hodgins, and Richie James for picking up the slack throughout the season, but sheesh. It's nothing short of a miracle that Jones managed to set a new career-high in passing yards last season given the lack of receiving talent at his disposal.

Heading into 2023, the Giants have already brought back workhorse RB Saquon Barkley on the franchise tag and re-signed Slayton and Shepard to cheap deals to support Jones.

More importantly, New York has signed some new playmakers.

Former Raiders TE Darren Waller (90-1,145-3 and 107-1,196-9 receiving lines in 2019 and 2020, respectively) and former Colts WR Parris Campbell (he’s fast fast) should help make the passing offense more dynamic, and that's just the start. The Giants will surely look to further improve Jones's supporting cast via the upcoming NFL Draft.

4. “Rebuild? Never heard of her.” - The Saints

Every year, the Saints’ salary cap situation looks to be unmanageable…until it's not. This month alone, New Orleans has managed to find a new alleged franchise QB in Derek Carr (four years, $150 million) and early-down RB in Jamaal Williams (three years, $12 million).

They also handed out decently-sized deals to keep Michael Thomas (one year, $10 million), Jameis Winston (one year, $8 million) and Juwan Johnson (two years, $12 million) in town.

And yet, the Saints should still have $16 to $17 million in cap space, eighth-most in the league, to make additional.

Mar 11, 2023; Metairie, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr (4) speaks at Ochsner Sports Performance Center. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

This is largely thanks to some clever contract maneuvering and the usage of void years. Only Cameron Jordan ($15 million), Thomas ($14 million), Marshon Lattimore ($11 million), and Ryan Ramczyk ($11 million) carry eight-figure cap hits in 2023.

Obviously, the salary cap is real, and NFL teams are regularly forced to part with players they would prefer to keep. However, teams are often able to find short-term solutions by converting portions of salary into bonuses as well as through kicking the can (contract) down the road with extensions and void years.

It remains to be seen whether the 2023 Saints will be any good, but they are certainly trying hard to contend.

5. That one girl is finally done drawing Jimmy G every day until he gets traded

Thank you, Rita Oak. You are truly a legend.

Best of luck to Jimmy Garoppolo on his next chapter with the Raiders. Fantasy Life director of analytics and all-around baller Dwain “The Rock” McFarland and myself broke down all the implications of him reuniting with Josh McDaniels on the March 16th edition of The Fantasy Life Podcast.

6. Miles Sanders is suddenly a rich man

The Panthers handed the former Eagles RB a four-year, $25 million deal with $13 million guaranteed. This contract places Miles Sanders fairly high up the leaderboard of RBs who have recently signed big-money deals with a new team during free agency.

There's just one problem…this leaderboard of high-priced free agent RBs is riddled with busts. Only 17 RBs have gone to a new team and received a contract worth at least $10 million since 2016:

2016 Chris Ivory (Jaguars): five years, $32 million
2016 Lamar Miller (Texans): four years, $26 million
2016 Matt Forte (Jets): three years, $12 million
2017 Latavius Murray (Vikings): three years, $15 million
2018 Jerick McKinnon (49ers): four years, $30 million
2018 Dion Lewis (Titans): four years, $19.8 million
2018 Carlos Hyde (Browns): three years, $15.25 million
2018 Isaiah Crowell (Jets): three years, $12 million
2019 Le’Veon Bell (Jets): four years, $52.5 million
2019 Mark Ingram (Ravens): three years, $15 million
2019 Latavius Murray (Saints): four years, $14 million
2020 Melvin Gordon (Broncos): two years, $16 million
2021 Kenyan Drake (Raiders): two years, $11 million
2022 Chase Edmonds (Dolphins): two years, $12.1 million
2023 Miles Sanders (Panthers): four years, $25.4 million
2023 David Montgomery (Lions): three years, $18 million
2023 Jamaal Williams (Saints): three years, $12 million

Part of this is due to survivorship bias; a pool of older RBs is inherently more likely to bust than a sample of younger RBs considering what we know about peak ages in fantasy football and the sample sizes involved.

The biggest problem for Sanders's fantasy outlook heading into next season is that he'll be playing with a far worse offensive line and more inefficient offense overall in Carolina than he was in Philadelphia.

And while a major headline of the signing was that Sanders is now reunited with his former RBs coach in Duce Staley, remember that Staley said in February that he believes in using three RBs and that playing the position is like being in “a car wreck".

Sanders will need an awful lot of volume to make up for playing behind a porous Panthers offensive line, and said volume is far from a given. In addition to Staley’s comments, head coach Frank Reich has a history of being reluctant to truly feature any RB, with the lone exception being Jonathan Taylor.

7. “You really are a funny guy!” - Henry Hill on new Saints RB Jamaal Williams

Jamaal Williams, the football player, is fine. But don't expect too much fantasy upside for Williams in New Orleans alongside Alvin Kamara, even if Kamara were to miss time due to a possible suspension.

Last year, Williams scored 17 TDs in large part thanks to a league-high 28 carries inside the five-yard line – the next-closest player was Jalen Hurts with 20 carries inside the five-yard line.

Jan 1, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions running back Jamaal Williams (30) celebrates his touchdown against the Chicago Bears during the third quarter at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

In fact, all but three of Williams's TDs came from inside the five-yard line. Expect some major scoring regression for Williams in 2023.

More importantly though, Williams is hilarious. His introductory press conference included important information like:

“I’m high off life right now.”
“I don’t do well with dead things that are still intact.”
“Ankle socks tell a lot about you, man.”

Do yourself a favor and check out the 90-second highlight version of Williams’s first – but undoubtedly not last – entertaining presser as a member of the Saints.

8. Fantasy football players like D’Andre Swift more than the Lions do

This seems pretty clear after Detroit decided to sign ex-Bears RB David Montgomery to a three-year, $18 million deal that includes $11 million guaranteed.

The good news for Montgomery's fantasy prospects is that he doesn’t turn 26 until June and is a pretty solid RB with three-down ability. The bad news is his projected workload.

Even though Jamaal Williams scored 17 TDs with the Lions last season, he still finished as just the RB18 in PPR PPG thanks to seeing only 16 targets all year. Williams also played more than 50% of the offense's snaps in just one game in 2022 despite Swift being banged up for most of the season.

Likely splitting touches with D'Andre Swift and (to a lesser extent) Craig Reynolds, Montgomery will need to make the most out of his rushing attempts and match Williams's 2022 scoring efficiency to make a big impact in fantasy.

Workhorse RBs are few and far between in the year 2023; fantasy managers can live with two-RB committees, but things get tough when three or more backs maintain consistent involvement.

Montgomery had better hope that he inherits the heavy majority of Williams's goal-line touches, because only the Jets, Bills, Chiefs, and Dolphins were less willing to give their lead RB 20-plus touches in 2022 than the Lions.

As for Swift, the rising fourth-year talent received double-digit carries in just two of his 14 games last season. He’ll need to dominate passing-down work in order to come close to achieving the lofty expectations placed upon him since being drafted by Detroit with the No. 35 overall pick in 2020.

9. The reigning, defending, undisputed RB1 of fantasy football isn’t happy

The Chargers recently granted stud RB Austin Ekeler permission to seek a trade. No RB has scored more total TDs than Ekeler (38) over the past two seasons, and his borderline-erotic receiving ability would provide a boost to literally any offense in the NFL.

There's just one problem: Ekeler might have a hard time maintaining the fantasy-friendly usage he's enjoyed in Los Angeles with his new potential team.

Jan 8, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) hands off to running back Austin Ekeler (30) against the Denver Broncos in the first quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

Targets are earned to an extent, but his 127 targets in 2022 were a full 19 more than the next-closest RB (Christian McCaffrey saw 108 targets) and 39 more than the RB in third place (Rhamondre Stevenson saw 88 targets).

It’d be silly for a team to trade for Ekeler, pay him a more lucrative long-term contract, and then proceed not to throw him the football. Wherever he goes, Ekeler would likely be used heavily as a receiver, but literally no team has provided more expected PPR PPG to their backfield than the Chargers have over the past three seasons.

The best-case scenario for Ekeler’s 2023 fantasy stock would be to remain with the Chargers. We'll just have to wait and see whether a trade materializes for him this offseason, possibly during the NFL Draft.

10. The Dolphins' backfield is partying like it’s 2022

There appeared to be all sorts of newfound opportunities in Miami’s backfield with each of Jeff Wilson, Raheem Mostert, and Myles Gaskin heading into this offseason as unrestricted free agents.

Fast forward to present day, and you don’t need more than two hands to count the number of teams with fewer available RB touches based on their 2022 to 2023 backfield turnover, as the Dolphins surprisingly re-signed all three of Wilson, Mostert, and Gaskin.

Whoever wins the lead role in Miami will certainly carry plenty of fantasy upside in the league’s 11th-ranked scoring offense from 2022, although no team was less willing to give their RBs 20-plus touches than the Dolphins last season.

Ultimately, this Miami offense figures to continue flowing through Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle above all else.

Wilson deserves a slight edge in fantasy rankings thanks to his youth, marginally more expensive contract, and more playing time last year (though that was partially due to Mostert missing time due to injuries).

That said, it'll be tough to rank either Wilson or Mostert as a top-30 RB in 2023 without more information surrounding Mike McDaniel's plans for the position.

11. Parents should not allow their sons to play RB

The RB position is cherished at every level of football except at the pro level, mostly because of the reality that teams are forced to operate under a salary cap.

The idea that "RBs don’t matter” is due to NFL teams having a finite amount of money to spend during any given season as well as the fact that the RB position is more dependent on surrounding talent than most.

That said, damn.

Five recently-signed RBs managed to join a team with plenty of backfield questions heading into 2023, but not a single one received anything close to a big-money deal:

Devin Singletary (Texans): one year, $3.8 million
Chase Edmonds (Buccaneers): one year, $1.1 million
D’Onta Foreman (Bears): one year, $3 million
Rashaad Penny (Eagles): one year, $3.5 million deal
James Robinson (Patriots): two years, $8 million
Samaje Perine (Broncos): two years, $7.5 million

Even the RBs who received the franchise tag this offseason, Saquon Barkley, Tony Pollard, and Josh Jacobs, aren’t exactly rolling in cash, as the tag amount for RBs is far cheaper than any other position that doesn’t include kicking a football.

It’s certainly possible for lesser-paid RBs to still put up big-time fantasy production. But it’d be a lot cooler if the guys who touch the football more than any position other than QB received a bit more love in a business that isn’t exactly short on cash.

12. The Cowboys are…making smart moves?

While the days of Jerry Jones making wild trades and absurd moves during the draft have been mostly over for some time, the team still hasn’t exactly been a model for great roster decision-making. Recent examples include agreeing to pay Ezekiel Elliott $90 million and trading Amari Cooper for just a few Day 3 picks.

Oct 30, 2022; Houston, Texas, USA; Houston Texans wide receiver Brandin Cooks (13) makes a reception as Tennessee Titans cornerback Terrance Mitchell (39) defends during the fourth quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

This offseason, though, Dallas finally rid themselves of Elliott's cumbersome contract, and they acquired Brandin Cooks for essentially the same amount of draft capital that the team received for Cooper last offseason.

On defense, the Cowboys acquired stud CB Stephon Gilmore for just a fifth-round pick, and they re-signed key starters in LB Leighton Vander Esch and S Donovan Wilson to reasonable deals.

It’s hard to give the Cowboys anything other than two thumbs up for their offseason moves thus far.

13. There are still some big-name RBs on the open market

Most of the major dominoes have already fallen after a wild first week of free agency, but there are still a handful of available RBs with the ability to make a name for themselves in fantasy land heading into 2023.

Last season, 82% of Jerick McKinnon's fantasy points in PPR formats came purely from receiving production. The next-closest among the top-36 RBs in per-game scoring was Leonard Fournette, who saw 63% of his PPR production come from receiving production.

Speaking of Fournette, he was rather terrible in pretty much any rushing metric last season, but his 73-523-3 receiving line was enough to finish as the RB12 in PPR last year and the RB13 in PPR PPG.

Another free agent RB still floating around is Kareem Hunt. He saw a decline in efficiency in 2022, ranking just 40th in missed tackles forced per carry and 38th in yards after contact per rush attempt (YAC/R). However, in four of five seasons from 2017 to 2021, Hunt finished as a top-five RB in missed tackles forced per carry and as a top-15 RB in YAC/R.

And finally, while Melvin Gordon will be 30 years old in April and failed to do much of anything right in 2022, an NFL team could talk themselves into signing him as a “proven veteran”. After all, he did log six consecutive seasons of 900-plus total yards and nine or more total TDs from 2016 to 2021.

14. The top QBs drafted in 2023 won't have very good pass-catching groups

The Panthers and Texans have been widely linked to the likes of C.J. Stroud, Bryce Young, and even Anthony Richardson at the top of the 2023 NFL Draft.

There's just one problem for whoever winds up leading these franchises next season: there aren't great WRs or TEs for them. In fact, one could argue that Carolina and Houston have the worst receiving corps in the league.

The Panthers' top WRs consist of Adam Thielen, Terrace Marshall, and Laviska Shenault with Hayden Hurst and Ian Thomas at TE. The Texans' top WRs consist of Nico Collins, Robert Woods, and John Metchie with recently-signed Dalton Schultz and Brevin Jordan at TE.

Jan 15, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen (19) is unable to catch a pass while defended by New York Giants cornerback Fabian Moreau (37) during the fourth quarter during a wild card game at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

While neither team should fancy themselves as a legit contender in 2023 (don't tell Thielen), both teams have plenty of draft capital to add talent at WR and TE. The hope is that both Carolina and Houston will eventually build strong supporting casts around their future young signal-callers.

However, the lack of talent on their current depth charts at WR and TE is all too similar to what Justin Fields had to deal with during his first two seasons in Chicago. The Panthers and Texans' current depth charts are far from ideal, and as such, their future rookie QBs will face an uphill battle to immediately produce in 2023.

15. The Patriots are addicted to free agency

New England's 2021 offseason pass-catcher spending spree wasn’t and probably shouldn’t ever be matched, but that didn’t stop Bill Belichick and company from spending more money to address WR and TE this offseason.

The Patriots recently gave JuJu Smith-Schuster a three-year, $33 million deal with $22.5 million guaranteed. Give the TikTok star some credit for rebounding with a 78-933-3 receiving line with the Chiefs in 2022. His 9.2 yards per target were the most JuJu has averaged since his rookie season.

Most impressive was JuJu's ability after the catch. His 5.9 yards after the catch per reception (YAC/R) ranked seventh among 80 qualifying WRs last year, and his efficiency wasn’t overly fluky, as evidenced by his sixth-place ranking in yards after the catch above expectation per Next-Gen Stats.

In addition to JuJu, New England also recently signed Mike Gesicki to a one-year, $4.5 million deal with $3.55 million guaranteed. Despite his 95th-percentile athleticism, the Penn State product has relied on volume to generate fantasy points.

But even in his 2021 breakout season where Gesicki saw 106 targets, he was productive but far from elite. That year, Gesicki's 3.2 YAC/R ranked 20th among TEs, and his 1.45 yards per route run (YPRR) and 0.16 EPA per target both ranked 13th at the position.

His target volume then declined significantly in 2022, as Hill and Waddle were the primary options for Miami's passing offense. The silver lining is that Gesicki could see ample red-zone targets with the Patriots, as they lack size at WR position outside of DeVante Parker, another former Dolphin.

With an absolutely brutal history of drafting WRs, Belichick's GOAT status as a head coach hasn't translated particularly well to his decisions as general manager.

Both JuJu and Gesicki have some upside in New England, but the organization's troubling track record in free agency following Brady's departure a few years ago doesn’t bode well for their fantasy outlooks.

16. There are still some potentially valuable WRs available

As with the RB position, there remains a handful of available WRs who could at least provide some solid complementary value to offenses in need of pass-catching playmakers.

Odell Beckham Jr. missed the entire 2022 season recovering from an ACL tear, but the last time we saw him, he averaged 4.2 receptions for 52 yards and 0.6 TDs in 11 full games with the Rams in 2021.

Extrapolating that out to a 17-game fantasy season would give Beckham a 71-889-11 receiving line, which would equate to 13.4 PPR PPG. That would've been good enough to make Beckham a top-30 PPR WR in fantasy last year.

Like Beckham, D.J. Chark missed time in 2022 due to injuries. However, he has tantalizing upside, as few 6'3 WRs have his 4.34 speed.

Chark’s 16.7 yards per reception ranked fifth among 80 qualifying players at the position last season, and his 2022 tape was better than any other player on that list.

Another free agent WR with strong physical traits is Mecole Hardman. Still just 25 years old, Hardman has flashed at times but needs to prove that he's capable of being more than just a speedy gadget player.

Thus far, 36% of Hardman’s career receptions and 26% of his career receiving yards have come on targets from behind the line of scrimmage, and both metrics place him in the top five among 125 qualifying WRs.

Unlike Chark or Hardman, Jarvis Landry doesn't have superb athleticism at the age of 30, but he can still contribute as a complementary WR somewhere.

That said, Landry has played just 12 and nine games over the past two seasons after having missed just one game total from 2014 to 2020. His 2.5 YAC/R was also a career-low last season, ranking just 109th among 118 WRs who saw at least 25 targets.

And finally, Cardinals WR DeAndre Hopkins has come up recently in trade talks. A potential trade would impact Marquise Brown in Arizona as well as the WR depth chart of wherever Hopkins were to go. At least Hopkins has managed to keep his sense of humor throughout the trade process.

17. This 2023 Jaguars offense looks rather loaded

The decision to trade for Calvin Ridley was made back in November, but the move is looking better than ever.

Ridley recently discussed the cause of his tumultuous 2021 season in a truly moving Players’ Tribune piece, and the NFL has also officially fully reinstated him. The best sign is that on-field GPS tracking has shown that the 28-year-old veteran WR is far from washed up.

Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence (16) scores a two point conversion between Los Angeles Chargers defensive tackle Sebastian Joseph-Day (69) and defensive tackle Breiden Fehoko (96) during the fourth quarter of an NFL first round playoff football matchup Saturday, Jan. 14, 2023 at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jacksonville Jaguars edged the Los Angeles Chargers on a field goal 31-30. Pom 2023 Jan 05

On top of Ridley's return, Jacksonville placed the franchise tag on TE Evan Engram after a strong 2022 season from him. It sure looks like rising third-year QB Trevor Lawrence will have no shortage of talented pass-catchers to throw to in 2023.

If the epic comeback against the Chargers in the playoffs was any indication, the Jaguars could be dangerous with Lawrence at the helm for the foreseeable future.

18. NFL teams have figured out that investing big money at TE isn’t smart

High-priced TEs who have signed with new teams in free agency have been a disaster in recent history. Kudos to NFL front offices for not going on a spending spree at the TE position this offseason.

Schultz got a one-year deal worth up to $9 million, but guys like Gesicki (one year, $4.5 million) and Robert Tonyan (one year, $2.7 million) didn't exactly get a bag. Other established options such as Irv Smith, Austin Hooper, and Foster Moreau remain free agents at the time of this writing.

There were still some questionable contracts this offseason, as the Panthers gave Hayden Hurst a three-year, $21.8 million contract, and the Vikings gave Josh Oliver a three-year, $21 million deal.

Overall though, NFL teams seem to have refrained from taking a page out of Belichick’s 2021 offseason playbook.

19. The Eagles’ bill is due

Never count out general manager Howie Roseman’s ability to improve his roster, but Philadelphia's 2023 roster is going to look very different from the team that came up just short against Kansas City in the Super Bowl.

Credit to the front office for bringing back their stud CB duo in Darius Slay (two years, $42 million) and James Bradberry (three years, $38 million), but their seven lost starters give them the worst “improvement index” of the offseason cycle thus far per the always wonderful Kevin Cole.

20. Gotta respect the big uglies

Having a baller offensive line certainly makes life easier for everyone on offense. In particular, credit to the Broncos and Falcons for reinforcing their group up front. All in all, eight different offensive linemen have landed a new deal or extension worth at least $30 million so far this offseason:

OG Chris Lindstrom (Falcons): five-year, $105 million extension with $63 million guaranteed
OT Mike McGlinchey (Broncos): five-year, $87.5 million deal with over $50 million guaranteed
OT Jawaan Taylor (Chiefs): four-year, $80 million deal with $60 million guaranteed
OT Laremy Tunsil (Texans): three-year, $75 million extension with $50 million guaranteed
OT Orlando Brown (Bengals): four-year, $64 million deal with $31 million guaranteed
OG Ben Powers (Broncos): four-year, $52 million deal with $28.5 million guaranteed
OT Kaleb McGary (Falcons): three-year, $34.5 million deal with $15 million guaranteed
OG Nate Davis (Bears): three-year, $30 million deal with $19.3 million guaranteed

21. The 49ers' defense might be even more terrifying in 2023

The 49ers will return 19 of 22 starters from their loss to the Eagles in the NFC Championship game. On top of that, San Francisco signed ex-Eagles DL Javon Hargrave to a four-year, $80 million deal.

As a reminder, the 2022 49ers defense was a top-five unit in virtually every single defensive metric. San Francisco's defense has also ranked top three in fewest points and yards allowed to opponents in three of the last four seasons. Don't be surprised if they're an elite defense yet again in 2023.

22. The Bears are done messing around

And by messing around, I mean sucking at professional football.

First, the Bears received quite a haul from the Panthers in exchange for the No. 1 overall pick. Chicago got the No. 9 and No. 61 overall picks in 2023, Carolina's 2024 first-round pick and 2025 second-round pick, and D.J. Moore on top of all that draft capital.

Next, general manager Ryan Poles addressed the defense, which ranked dead last in points allowed in 2022, by adding LB Tremaine Edmunds, LB T.J. Edwards, DL DeMarcus Walker, and DL Andrew Billings.

Even after those free agent additions, the Bears still have more available cap space than any other team in the league, and they have four draft picks in the top 64 overall in the upcoming 2023 NFL Draft.

It remains to be seen whether Moore and the additions on defense will be able to immediately turn around a franchise with just nine total wins over the past two seasons. But heading into 2023, Bears fans have good reason to be optimistic for arguably the first time since Chicago's double doink playoff elimination in 2019.

22 Fantasy Football Takeaways From NFL Free Agency

22 Fantasy Football Takeaways From the First Week of NFL Free Agency

1. The Lamar Jackson market is not booming

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

2. Aaron Rodgers will allegedly be taking his talents to the Jets

3. The Giants are building around the artist known as Vanilla Vick

4. “Rebuild? Never heard of her.” - The Saints

5. That one girl is finally done drawing Jimmy G every day until he gets traded

6. Miles Sanders is suddenly a rich man

7. “You really are a funny guy!” - Henry Hill on new Saints RB Jamaal Williams

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

8. Fantasy football players like D’Andre Swift more than the Lions do

9. The reigning, defending, undisputed RB1 of fantasy football isn’t happy

10. The Dolphins' backfield is partying like it’s 2022

11. Parents should not allow their sons to play RB

12. The Cowboys are…making smart moves?

13. There are still some big-name RBs on the open market

14. The top QBs drafted in 2023 won't have very good pass-catching groups

15. The Patriots are addicted to free agency

16. There are still some potentially valuable WRs available

17. This 2023 Jaguars offense looks rather loaded

18. NFL teams have figured out that investing big money at TE isn’t smart

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+

19. The Eagles’ bill is due

20. Gotta respect the big uglies

21. The 49ers' defense might be even more terrifying in 2023

22. The Bears are done messing around

Get $25 Guillotine League Credits When You Join FL+