Ian Hartitz previews Week 12 of the fantasy football season by going team by team answering the most important fantasy questions.

Grab some leftover turkey and hunker down because there remains all sorts of NFL action going on this weekend — and I’ve got some questions that simply need answers.
What follows are my 10 biggest questions ahead of this week’s action along with a bunch of other shit that I just so happened to find cool for one reason or another.
As always: It’s a great day to be great.
With all due respect to Derek Carr (concussion) in his recovery: I sure hope so. Sadly Luckily, Carr got in a full practice on Wednesday and seems to be progressing through the protocol.
Winston has the sort of arm and gunslinger mentality that simply makes watching Red Zone better — and this combination immediately proved fruitful for No. 1 WR Chris Olave after Carr was sidelined back in Week 10.
Winston’s target shares upon entering the game were as follows:
Look, Olave’s good-not-great production has hardly always been Carr’s fault, but when you throw in an injury to Michael Thomas (knee, IR): It seems likely that Olave will see as much volume as he can handle. He’s a borderline WR1 for Week 12 and beyond regardless of who winds up being under center; it would just be a lot more entertaining for better or worse if that man happens to be Jamo.
This situation is also a bump to usual No. 3 WR Rashid Shaheed, who has been making big-time plays all season already anyway. Fifth among 99 qualified WRs in yards per reception (16.9), Shaheed is a legit borderline WR3 this week and someone I would start ahead of guys like Rashee Rice, Odell Beckham Jr., and Brandin Cooks among others.
A.J. Terrell and company hardly form a weak secondary, but they have posted bottom-seven numbers in yards per attempt (15.3, 26th), pass TD rate (18.4%, 29th) and passer rating allowed (120.1, 31st) on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield this season.
Seriously, Derek: Take your time, man.
That’s what he’s been over the last three weeks!
You don’t have to be a Joshua Dobbs rocket scientist to figure out that Dell is good at football and benefiting from being the No. 1 target of one of the best rookie QBs … ever.
Still, it is worth wondering if Dell’s production is just a bit inflated at the moment relative to his actual real-life standing to his WR peers. Again: The rookie is obviously already really good, but seeing not one, not two, but three Texans WRs ranking among the position’s top-12 most efficient options in yards per route run is absolutely wild:
C.J. Stroud hasn’t just been good for a rookie: The Ohio State product now ranks among the league’s top-10 signal-callers in yards per attempt (8.3, third), EPA per dropback (+0.15, seventh) and PFF passing grade (80.9, 10th).
Seriously: We are talking about the real-deal-holyfield here.
The continued absence of Brown (knee) would keep this down to a three-man rotation — but even then: I’ll be answering the vast majority of close start/sit questions featuring Dell or Collins with them as long as the Texans continue to look like one of the game’s single-most lethal passing attacks. Stroud is literally on pace to throw for 5,035 yards this season. Madness.
There’s really been nothing wrong with Najee Harris this season. His average of 3.9 yards per carry is the same as guys like Austin Ekeler, Javonte Williams and Joe Mixon. Harris’ marks in yards after contact per attempt (2.9, 23rd) and missed tackles forced per carry (0.21) are legit good. Credit to the former first-round pick for also converting two of his three rushing attempts inside the five-yard line into scores.
Here’s the thing: Warren has been … the best RB in the league at making defenders miss and creating explosive plays on the ground.
“Gen-Z Austin Ekeler” has ripped off PPR RB15, RB8 and RB2 finishes over the past three weeks with touch totals of 14, 17 and 12. Not exactly the sort of usage one might expect for one of the game’s most efficient rushers, but perhaps this changes in the post-Matt Canada era.
Overall, Warren is the consensus Fantasy Life RB24 this week ahead of guys like Jerome Ford, Gus Edwards and James Cook. The matchup certainly doesn’t hurt: Only the Broncos (2) have allowed more rushing yards before contact per carry than the Bengals (1.8).
The following teams have truly prime schedules in Weeks 15-17 in terms of their opponent’s ranks in PPR fantasy points per game allowed to the position:
The following RBs played at least 70% of their offense’s snaps in their team’s last game:
Giants RB Saquon Barkley (91%): Looked good last week on his way to an overall RB1 finish. Things won’t always be pretty inside this Tommy DeVito-led attack, but Barkley is as safe a bet for 15 to 20 touches per game as any back in the league.
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor (89%): That’s right: JT finally has the every-down Zack Moss role. Man, not a sentence I thought I would be typing this season, but here we are: Taylor has overall RB1 upside down the stretch should his post-bye efficiency return to 2022 levels — let alone 2020-21 heights.
Texans RB Devin Singletary (85%): The ex-Bills veteran has ripped off PPR RB3 and RB11 over the past two weeks on the back of an elite 83% snap share. One problem: Dameon Pierce (ankle) looks to be on the verge of returning, likely relegating Singletary back to more of a 1.A/1.B situation — both are risky RB3s against a Jaguars front-seven that has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards to the position this season.
Buccaneers RB Rachaad White (81%): Has ripped off PPR RB12, RB10, RB1, RB10 and RB12 finishes in his last five games. White has always had a massive workload, and this Buccaneers offense is #goodenough to supply ample scoring opportunities. Shoutout to the second-year back for being ESPN’s top-ranked RB in terms of receiving rating.

Nov 5, 2023; Houston, Texas, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers running back Rachaad White (1) breaks the tackle of Houston Texans safety Jalen Pitre (5) in the fourth quarter at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports
Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert (78%): Friendly reminder to check those fantasy lineups because there is Friday Dolphins-Jets football, baby! Mostert is my overall RB8 on the week.
Falcons RB Bijan Robinson (77%): Arthur Smith finally caved and gave the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 8 overall pick his highest snap share since Week 6. Robinson remains a weekly recommended start as an upside RB2 even if top-five dreams are likely out of reach.
Raiders RB Josh Jacobs (76%): Remember all those unserious studies about how RBs who have massive workloads one season never seem to have any sort of success the next season? Jacobs presently has a league-high 231 touches and is working as the RB17 in PPR points per game. Not great, but more success should be ahead with this sort of every-down role.
Saints RB Alvin Kamara (74%): Currently averaging career-worst marks in yards per carry (3.7) and yard per target (5.4), yet is returning PPR RB3 per-game production thanks to a career-high 7.1 receptions per game — the seventh-highest mark regardless of position:
Chargers RB Austin Ekeler (71%): Has ripped off PPR RB24, RB36, RB5, RB4, RB4 and RB20 finishes since returning from injury in Week 6. As bad as he looked on this run, few RBs boast anything close to his fantasy-friendly blend of goal-line and receiving volume.
The likes of James Conner (68.9%), Rhamondre Stevenson (68%), Joe Mixon (66%) and Travis Etienne (65%) were close, but we have to draw the line somewhere. We HAVE to. You know?
Still, those latter two backs in particular still very much deserve every-week starting treatment and were more so victims to blowout game script. Breece Hall (61%) also falls under this category.
Anyway, RB volume is always subject to change courtesies of coaching or the will of the dreaded injury gods — but lucky for you: The Friday evening edition of The Fantasy Life Podcast always features myself and Fantasy Life Betting Lead Matthew Freedman breaking down all of the week’s fantasy-relevant injury news.
Pretty much. Patrick Mahomes and company are currently posting six-year lows in PFF offensive grade (73.6), EPA per play (+0.013) points per game (22.5). The latter mark is nearly more than a TD lower than the Chiefs’ previous “worst” scoring seasons back in 2019 (28.2) and 2021 (28.2).
So is Mahomes washed? Not exactly.
The Chiefs have four qualified WRs among 88 qualified players at the position in ESPN’s Receiver Rating metric. They rank as follows:
Yes, it’s just one metric, but Rice remains the only Chiefs WR inside the top-60 in PFF receiving grade and passer rating when targeted: Good things have generally not been happening when Mahomes throws the football to anyone not named Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice or one of the team’ RBs; just look at his passer rating differences depending on the targeted receiver:
The inconsistent WR play has helped limit Mahomes to under 20 fantasy points in six of his last seven games. October 22 was the last time this group scored a second-half TD for crying out loud.
Good news: Sunday’s matchup with the Raiders should provide some level of a get-right spot for the game’s best QB. Overall, Mahomes has posted 340-2-1, 348-2-1, 406-5-0, 258-2-0, 292-4-0 and 202-1-0 passing lines against this group since 2020; it just sucks that nobody other than Kelce is a must-start fantasy option.
This includes Rice, who sadly did NOT see a post-bye bump in usage. Still a solid enough FLEX option in good matchups like the one on Sunday, but he’s still only seen more than five targets in a game twice all season.
Sure would be cool if it was!
Henry managed to gain 100-plus yards and score a TD in four of five games before his recent two-game slide. Overall, tough run-D matchups against the Buccaneers and Jaguars yielded just 64 scoreless yards on 23 touches.
Enter: The Panthers’ 31s-ranked defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position. Carolina has allowed at least 100 yards on the ground in all but one game this season, letting opposing RBs of all shapes and sizes largely do whatever they want.
Overall, this defense has allowed an opposing RB to score 15-plus PPR points in all but two games this season, notably getting absolutely fleeced by Raheem Mostert (34.2 PPR points), Kenneth Walker (30.6), Tyler Allgeier (24.4), David Montgomery (20.9) and Bijan Robinson (20.3).
There’s a chance for showers and the weather is starting to get colder: It’s almost that time of the year when more and more professional football players start making business decisions when presented with the opportunity to meet Henry head-on. His career regular-season average yards per carry by month are:
Yes, Henry and PFF’s 30th-ranked offensive line aren’t exactly the same juggernaut as in years past. Also yes, the Panthers let Tony Pollard score a TD last week. Tony Pollard! I know! Can you believe it?
Obviously, fantasy managers are continuing to start Henry regardless through thick and thin; just realize the expectation for an explosion should be ESPECIALLY high ahead of this smash spot.
Also note that backup RB Tyjae Spears remains rostered in only 38% of Yahoo leagues — he’d instantly be in the upside RB2 conversation should Henry be forced to miss any time down the stretch. The rookie is good with the football in his hands.
Oh you bet your ass it was.
There were other passes that were of the exceptional variety, but it was Fields’ rushing prowess earned top billing in Dwain McFarland’s ever-excellent Utilization Report:
“Fields rushed for 104 yards on 18 attempts against the Lions. He handled a season-high 33% (14) of the team-designed rushing attempts, and his 14% (4) tied a season-high mark. Fields ranks No. 2 in the NFL in scramble rate at 9% – trailing only Lamar Jackson (12%).
The Bears registered their lowest DBOE (dropback rate over expectation) of the season at -17% in a close loss to their division rivals. Fields only dropped back to pass 23 times, throwing for 169 yards and a TD.
Regardless of the game script, Fields is a huge part of what the Bears do and offers immense fantasy upside.
The former first-round NFL pick averages 9.7 attempts (designed plus scrambles) and 20.3 fantasy points in six healthy starts. Since 2008, QBs with nine or more attempts per game have averaged 21 fantasy points per contest.
Outlook: Fields is a mid-range QB1 with high-end QB1 upside.”
I generally absolutely hate Dwain’s opinion on everything, but I have to agree with him here: Fields is the Fantasy Life consensus QB7 ahead of guys like Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa and Justin Herbert ahead of his Monday night matchup against a Vikings defense that gave up a quick 46 rushing yards to Field in a half before he injured his thumb all the way back in Week 6.
(Also, just kidding, Dwain. Love ya brother. Please give our fantasy rosters a quick run-through before Sunday if you’re reading this because I’ll either be celebrating or crying to epic proportions depending on the outcome of Ohio State-Michigan. Thanks, man.)
Maybe Isaiah Likely! It just depends on whether you want to invest more stock in the second-year TE’s performance with a full-time role in 2022, or in the two games he’s played without Andrews (foot, IR) this season:
Here’s the thing: Likely has posted elite route participation numbers in each of these contests, clearing the 75% mark in each and every contest. He’s the consensus TE13 in the Fantasy Life rankings ahead of guys like Kyle Pitts and Logan Thomas for now, but a bigger leap could be incoming with a bit more evidence of volume in this 2023 offense.
Seriously: Likely’s rest-of-season schedule is HOT:
Maybe not necessarily all layups for this passing game, but perhaps more importantly these are matchups that will inevitably feature gaudy fantasy-friendly game totals thanks to the firepower involved on both sidelines.
There’s also rest-of-season optimism for this WR room with Lamar Jackson’s go-to target suddenly out of the picture:
Every week I put together matchup-specific charts to help determine the week’s biggest advantages by combining offensive and defensive rates in explosive plays, pressure, yards before contact, passing yards per dropback and EPA. This provides singular metrics to help quantity advantages on both sides of the ball instead of always having to go, “Offense ranks x, defense ranks y.”
The following three players might have a red flag or two in their Week 12 projection — that’s why they aren’t ranked as sure-thing top-12 options at their position — but I believe there’s enough of an edge in the matchup to warrant enhanced optimism.
Will these bold calls work out? Probably not! But should that stop us from trying to predict some cool f*cking shit? Absolutely not!
Hope you all had a good time celebrating Thanksgiving with your loved ones — because now it’s more imperative than EVER to ignore your friends and family in order to focus on winning fantasy championship gold.
Just kidding. Kind of. Best of luck in Week 12!
