One week separates us from the fantasy football playoffs. Maybe your team is already eliminated. Maybe a first-round bye has already been secured. Maybe you’re fighting for your f*cking life to stay alive.

Want to know the best solution for all three problems ahead of Week 14? Just win, baby.

What follows are my 10 biggest fantasy-relevant questions ahead of this week’s slate of action along with a bunch of other cool shit I managed to dig up throughout the week.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

1. So … are we suddenly all the way back in on this Bengals offense?

It’s certainly a lot easier to feel good about the prospects of everyone involved following Jake Browning’s 354-yard effort during the Bengals’ Monday night victory over the Jaguars. No, the performance didn’t consist of one 40-yard strike after another, but that really wasn’t a problem thanks to Browning’s consistent efficiency and accuracy.

Yes, this may be the best performance that Browning ever has. Also yes, it makes sense that things went a bit smoother against the Jaguars (No. 15 in EPA allowed per pass) than the Ravens (No. 2) and or Steelers (No. 7). Joe Burrow is obviously awesome, but the Bengals are regularly on the NFL’s shortlist for best WR trios for a reason: There are plenty of places to go with the football in Cincy. 

While the Colts happen to offer a top-10 defense in their own right in EPA allowed per pass play, they have benefited mightily from getting to face one mediocre QB after another for the better part of the last two months:

• Week 7: P.J. Walker
• Week 8: Derek Carr
• Week 9: Bryce Young
• Week 10: Mac Jones
• Week 11: Bye
• Week 12: Baker Mayfield
• Week 13: Will Levis

I’m not buying that this defense is one to overly fear by any stretch of the imagination. Ja’Marr Chase was never someone we were putting near the fantasy bench anyway, but he’s back to getting WR1 treatment in this spot. A similar sentiment is true for Joe Mixon, who has ripped off four top-10 PPR finishes in his last six games following the team’s Week 7 bye.

Even Tee Higgins deserves to be in far more lineups than not on a week with enough severe weather concerns to warrant legit downgrades to some of the WR position’s brightest stars. While his 3-36-0 receiving line on three targets was hardly anything to write home about, Higgins looked healthy and ran a route on 81% of Browning’s dropbacks. I’m firing up the now healthy 24-year-old talent as a legit WR3 ahead of guys like Jakobi Meyers, Josh Downs and Gabe Davis among others.

You can also target the Bengals pieces on Underdog Fantasy, where you can get a 100% deposit match of up to $100 when you sign up below with promo code LIFE!

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2. Is this Chiefs offense broken?

Things certainly aren’t functioning at peak efficiency right now. Since racking up 31 points and 483 total yards of offense during a Week 7 trouncing of the Chargers:

• Week 8 at Broncos: 9 points, 274 total yards
• Week 9 vs. Dolphins: 21 points (1 defensive TD), 267 total yards
• Week 10 bye
• Week 11 vs. Eagles: 17 points, 336 total yards
• Week 12 at Raiders: 31 points, 360 total yards
• Week 13 at Packers: 19 points, 337 total yards

One impressive performance in a month and a half isn’t exactly the standard inside of arguably the single-best offense over the last half-decade of football. Consider: The Chiefs have already totaled seven games with 21 or fewer points this season after totaling zero, one, two, five and three such instances from 2018 to 2022.

While the easy answer is to blame the return of Matt Nagy, the larger problems come down to the fact that nobody other than Travis Kelce and (to a lesser extent) Rashee Rice have been consistently great this season.

Mahomes’ average time to throw is longer than ever this season (3.02 seconds), yet his average target depth is a career-low 7.3 yards. These two numbers aren’t always extremely correlated, but it’s curious that no other QB taking at least three seconds to throw on average has an aDOT lower than even 7.6.

Somehow, the Chiefs have become one of the game’s least efficient offenses when throwing the football at least 20 yards downfield. Among 34 QBs with at least 15 passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield this season:

• PFF pass grade: 64.3 (31st)
• Yards per attempt: 9.2 (30th)
• Completion rate: 27.7% (31st)
• Passer rating: 32.7% (34th)

You see that last one? No QB has a worse passer rating than Mahomes when throwing 20-plus yards downfield this season. Aidan O’Connell? Better. Jimmy Garoppolo? Better. Zach f*cking Wilson? That’s right, better.

Of course, the primary flaw with passer rating is that the metric more so encompasses the performance of an entire passing game as opposed to just the QB. This is hardly all Mahomes’ fault: The Chiefs have the third-highest drop rate (16.7%) on deep balls, and PFF considered targets open or wide open on just 23% of these — the 10th-lowest mark in the NFL.

However, Mahomes also has the fourth-lowest catchable pass rating (38.3%) on these deep balls when looking at more advanced PFF metrics. Mahomes and company used to absolutely feast downfield against defenses brave enough to try to bring an extra defender in the box and run cover-3, but that same level of success simply hasn’t been there this year:

• 2023: 4.7 yards per attempt on deep balls vs. Cover-3
• 2022: 17.1
• 2021: 16.3
• 2020: 19.9
• 2019: 20.5
• 2018: 17.6

Luckily, up next is a Bills defense that has spent far more time with two safeties back in Cover-2/4/6 shells this season. Mahomes might have lost the way against this group last season, but he did throw for 338 yards and a pair of scores despite not having the Cheetah around to help out.

This Chiefs offense probably won’t overly resemble the group we got used to seeing from 2018 to 2022 until they rediscover their fastball... which is the deep ball. Luckily, volume is being condensed enough at the moment of the top-three skill-position parties involved to warrant every-week starting treatment — don’t be surprised if things go a bit smoother down the stretch with dates against the Raiders and Bengals on the horizon to assist fantasy managers in Weeks 16 and 17.

3. What do we make of the Jaguars’ devastating injuries?

Good news: Trevor Lawrence is “only” dealing with a high ankle sprain and isn’t ruled out for Sunday. Still, it sounds like more of a pipe dream than a potential reality, and T-Law would be far more of a middling QB2 than usual in fantasy land considering:

1. He’s unlikely to provide anything close to his usual 20.7 rushing yards per game or goal-line Superman-reach prowess.
2. This week’s matchup in Cleveland combines a brutal weather forecast with the league’s single-best defense in EPA allowed per pass play.

C.J. Beathard couldn’t even put up decent efficiency statistics with the help of Kyle Shanahan and younger versions of San Francisco’s ridiculously talented skill-position assets — how do you think things are going to go in this spot behind PFF’s 20th-ranked offensive line that could also be without starting LT Walker Little (hamstring) AND essentially the team’s No. 1 WR Christian Kirk (groin)?

The only fantasy asset who needs to be in lineups is Travis Etienne, although even his utilization has been looking iffy since returning from the team’s Week 9 bye. Treat him as more of a borderline RB1 as opposed to the top-five option he was for most of the first two months of the season.

This isn’t to suggest you can’t put Calvin Ridley (volume-based WR3), Zay Jones borderline WR4 and/or Evan Engram (low-end TE1) in a fantasy lineup; just curtail boom expectations over these next two brutal matchups against the Browns and Ravens. Here’s to hoping Lawrence is healthier for Week 16 and 17 dates against the Buccaneers and Panthers.

4. Can Justin Fields still lock down franchise QB1 duties in Chicago?

The Bears’ much-criticized QB1 has certainly improved as a passer in 2023:

Here’s the problem: This improvement still hasn’t led to much winning (Chicago is 2-6 in Fields’ eight starts this year), and the third-year QB is actually posting a worse EPA per dropback (-0.05) than he did in 2022 (+0.01) thanks to a combination of his sack rate remaining far too high and last year’s monstrous 76.5 rushing yards per game falling to a (still amazing for a QB) 50.

Things have been mostly fine in fantasy land: Fields has returned QB12, QB20, QB24, QB2, QB1, QB8 and most recently QB17 finishes in his seven full starts this season. It’s also not his fault that this Bears defense has ranked 22nd, 32nd and 27th in scoring during his three-year career.

Nov 27, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Justin Fields (1) scrambles against the Minnesota Vikings linebacker D.J. Wonnum (98) in the first quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

But hey! At least Fields pretty much freed D.J. Moore! The ex-Panthers talent has already cleared the 1,000-yard mark despite failing to gain even 60 receiving yards during any of Tyson Bagent’s five extended appearances. Fire up DJM as the WR1 that he’s been with Fields on the field (ha!) ahead of Sunday’s matchup with the Lions’ bottom-12 defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position.

D.J. Moore with Fields under center:

• Week 1: 2 rec-25 yards-0 TD
• Week 2: 6-104-0
• Week 3: 3-41-1
• Week 4: 8-131-1
• Week 5: 8-230-3
• Week 11: 7-96-1
• Week 12: 11-114-0

The Bears are currently projected to land the 2024 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick thanks courtesy of the Panthers. Fields has five weeks to prove that the first 49 weeks of his career weren’t the best he had to offer.

Fantasy managers should enjoy the next month-long stretch, but I’d be shocked if Fields is still a member of the team by the time the 2024 season rolls around. 

5. Are any Broncos capable of booming down the stretch?

Hopefully, Javonte Williams, who has maintained awesome utilization following the team’s Week 9 bye despite not finding too much success in the box score over the past three weeks:

The Broncos have fed Williams at least 16 combined carries and targets in each of his past six games; don’t be surprised if the good times get rolling in a MAJOR way with two matchups to go against a Chargers defense that has looked incapable of slowing down anyone not named Bailey Zappe or Zach Wilson for the better part of the last month and a half.

And then there are these WRs, who have an even better end-of-season schedule stretch incoming:

• Week 14 at Chargers: 27th in PPR points per game allowed to WRs
• Week 15 at Lions: 22nd
• Week 16 vs. Patriots: 21st
• Week 17 vs. Chargers: 27th

Of course, Courtland Sutton has largely dominated usage in this WR room all season, as the 28-year-old veteran has managed to catch a TD in nine of 12 games on his way to emerging as Russell Wilson’s favorite target.

And yet, there have been plenty of opportunities for Wilson to go elsewhere with the football. He missed rookie WR Marvin Mims on what should have been a long house call last week, while repeated failures to find Jerry Jeudy deep even prompted head coach Sean Payton to speak out postgame.

This Broncos offense hasn’t gained more than 300 total yards in a game since Week 7; the group is hardly firing on all cylinders at the moment despite winning five of their last six contests. Credit to Russ for rebounding decently enough from last season’s disaster; just realize his “new-and-improved” numbers still aren’t anything close to what we saw during the heavy majority of his time in Seattle.

Ultimately, Williams and Sutton remain the only fantasy options in Denver that fantasy managers should feel at all good about starting this week despite the smashable matchup. I’d feel a lot better about trusting this passing attack if the offense hadn’t posted a dropback rate over expected mark of -7% or lower in five of their last seven games.

6. What exactly is going wrong with Justin Herbert and company?

Two things mostly:

• Schedule: Herbert has had to duel with Kyle Hamilton and the Ravens’ arguable league best pass defense as well as Bill Belichick and rainy Foxborough conditions over the past two weeks of action. Before that he was seen torching the Lions for 323 yards and 4 TDs before being let down by his pass catchers to an astounding degree against the Packers.
• Offensive health: Keenan Allen (quad) has barely been able to practice in recent weeks, while complementary pass-catchers Quentin Johnston (ribs/finger), Jalen Guyton (groin), Gerald Everett (chest/shoulder) and Donald Parham (finger/hip) have also been dealing with injury issues to varying degrees. Oh yeah, Mike Williams (ACL) was lost for the season after three games, Joshua Palmer (knee, IR) hasn’t played since Week 8, and Austin Ekeler simply hasn’t looked like his usual baller self since returning from his ankle injury.

The lack of receiving production from Ekeler in particular has been alarming considering the lack of other reliable options. The reigning, defending, RB1 of fantasy football is responsible for fewer PPR points from purely receiving numbers than we’ve seen since he earned a featured role in this offense back in 2019:

• 2019: 15 PPR points from purely receiving production
• 2020: 10.6
• 2021: 11.4
• 2022: 12.3
• 2023: 7.4

Let’s just say life on the ground hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing either in recent weeks. The result has been an unthinkable three consecutive finishes as the PPR RB20 or worse — Ekeler only had two such performances in all of 2022.

Ekeler has still seen 17, 16 and 13 combined carries and targets during these three duds; better days should be ahead when the Chargers, you know, manage to average more than 13 real-life points per game. Fantasy managers don’t have much of a choice other than to fire up the longtime stud RB and hope for the best; just realize nothing has been overly guaranteed in this offense this year … other than Keenan Allen, who deserves his usual upside WR1 treatment.

Side note: Consider stashing No. 2 RB Joshua Kelley (13% owned in Yahoo leagues) ahead of a smashable final stretch. He handled 14, 12 and 17 touches in three games with Ekeler sidelined and gets the position’s second-easiest schedule in Weeks 15 to 17 against the Raiders (27th), Bills (21st) and Broncos (32nd). God forbid the 5-7 Chargers get officially eliminated from the playoffs (they currently hold a 7% chance of getting in), it might make sense for the team to alleviate meaningless wear and tear for some of their veterans.

7. Just how scary is this Ravens defense when considering Rams fantasy options?

Rather terrifying ESPECIALLY coming off a bye on a Sunday afternoon that is expected to feature Mother Nature on their side.

Seriously: This weather forecast is horrific. Shoutout to Rotogrinder’s Kevin Roth for always supplying the good (in this case bad) word:

“It's going to rain a lot on Sunday in Baltimore. The worst of it may end up coming after the game, but even in that scenario I think the game plays wet with light rain (and if the system is a bit faster than what models are showing now it'll be a slop-fest). Winds are gusty too, 15-20 mph sustained winds with gusts around 30. Ugly stuff.”

These sorts of wind speeds have historically been incredibly problematic in fantasy football land in a small sample. Intriguingly, Fantasy Life resident meteorologist Chris Allen (he’s not actually a meteorologist, but he did write a badass article on all the fantasy implications of bad weather) noted that, “In short, good passers stayed good. At least for fantasy purposes, they did.”

Nov 12, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton (14) celebrates with teammates after returning a interception for a first quarter touchdown against the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

While Matthew Stafford has been spoiled by playing in a dome or in Los Angeles for most of his career, he does have the sort of big hands (10 inches, 79th percentile) and arm strength to feasibly handle rain and wind better than most.

Of course, this bad weather is compounded by the fact that this Ravens secondary might just be the best group in all of football:

• EPA allowed per pass: -0.217 (No. 2)
• Explosive pass play rate allowed: 8% (No. 1)
• Passer rating allowed: 72.6 (No. 1)
• Yards per pass attempt allowed: 5.5 (No. 1)
• Fantasy points per game allowed to QBs: 13 (No. 1)
• PPR points per game allowed to WRs: 30.3 (No. 5)

Obviously, Kyren Williams is locked in as a usage-based RB1 regardless of the matchup or weather as long as he’s healthy enough to handle one of the most fantasy-friendly workloads in all of football. But after that: Matthew Stafford is a non-recommended start as a low-end QB2, Puka Nacua fits in as a low-end WR2 who needs to continue to see some extra run-game usage, and Cooper Kupp sadly doesn’t crack the position’s top-24 options in Fantasy Life’s consensus ranks due to the reality that he’s not demanding targets or performing up to his usual elite standard while continuing to play through the pain.

The Rams have largely exceeded expectations this year and have flashed legit high-end performance on the offensive side of the football; just realize the matchup and weather have dropped their implied team total to just 16.5 points — a mark that exceeds only the Titans, Panthers, Giants, Jets, Jaguars and Patriots this week. Those are NOT the offenses that you want to see your fantasy assets grouped in with.

8. What does the loss of Tank Dell mean for this Texans passing attack?

It (obviously) doesn’t help, but C.J. Stroud should still be plenty capable of putting up big-time passing numbers on a near-weekly basis.

Just look at last week: Stroud’s underwhelming (for him) 274-1-0 passing line included not one, not two, but three separate potential TDs that he (surprisingly) failed to convert.

Maybe things are again tougher than expected against Sauce Gardner and company this week, but make no mistake about it: This Texans offense is one you abso-lutely want pieces of before they get not one but TWO smash spots against the Titans’ pass-funnel defense in the fantasy playoffs.

Lucky for us, it’s clear who the top two WRs are in this passing attack at the moment:

Week 13 route participation rates:

• Nico Collins: 86%
• Noah Brown: 86%
• Robert Woods: 46%
• John Metchie: 37%
• Tank Dell: (11%, injured)

Also note that backup TE Brevin Jordan ran a route on a nice rate of Stroud’s dropbacks, making him a solid upside TE2 for however long Dalton Schultz (hamstring) remains sidelined. The ex-Cowboys veteran will be right back in the low-end TE1 conversation once healthy enough to return to action.

The ever-erratic nature of the Jets offense has caused their defense plenty of problems throughout the season, yet Gang Green still hasn’t allowed an opposing offense to reach even 275 passing yards in a single game.

For this reason, treat Stroud as more of a low-end QB1 as opposed to the top-six option that he’s been for the better part of the last two months, while Collins and Brown are fine-enough borderline WR1 and WR3 types who will get a big-time upgrade next week when they aren’t facing the league’s single-best defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position.

9. Are Brandin Cooks and Jake Ferguson suddenly weekly must-start options?

It’s been that way for quite a while now. Cooks struggled to find his role in the offense during the first month of the season, but he’s scored in five of seven games since the team’s embarrassing Week 5 loss to the 49ers:

• Week 6: 4-36-1 (PPR WR20)
• Week 8: 3-49-1 (WR29)
• Week 9: 1-7-0 (WR95)
• Week 10: 9-173-1 (WR3)
• Week 11: 3-32-0 (WR50)
• Week 12: 4-72-1 (WR21)
• Week 13: 4-45-1 (WR21)

Yes, Cooks only has more than five targets in one of these games, meaning he’s been especially reliant on big plays and TDs.

Also yes, these sorts of fantasy-friendly opportunities have been readily available inside of the league’s top-ranked scoring offense. Dak Prescott is one of just six QBs completing at least 60% of their passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield this season; Cooks has earned weekly upside WR3 treatment EVEN BEFORE CONSIDERING THE SMASH SPOT HE NOW FINDS HIMSELF IN.

The Eagles have allowed opposing WR groups to score an average of 50 (!) PPR points against them this season. The Commanders (44) and Buccaneers (41) round out the top-three worst defenses against the position and they aren’t particularly close to Philly.

I’d be shocked if the Eagles let CeeDee Lamb get going to a similar degree as their first matchup (11-191-0), meaning Cooks should be far more involved than he was in his two-target Week 9 performance. I’m starting the longtime stud receiver ahead of WRs with major QB and/or weather concerns like Calvin Ridley and Cooper Kupp this week.

And then there’s Jake Ferguson, who talked all kinds of trash on his way to racking up memorable moments against the Seahawks last Thursday night. Ferguson, for lack of a better word, is a dawg.

A$AP Ferg has posted top-15 numbers in yards per route run (1.41) and PFF receiving grade (72.2) on his way to working as the TE8 in PPR points per game. All he did against the Eagles in their last matchup was catch seven of 10 targets for 91 yards and a score — fire him up as a legit top-seven option at the position against this bottom-10 defense in PPR points per game allowed to opposing TEs.

Cowboys-Eagles currently has a game total of 52 points. No other matchup is higher than 48.5. Get your popcorn ready for this one.

10. What are three bold predictions for Week 13?

Every week I put together matchup-specific charts to help determine the week’s biggest advantages by combining offensive and defensive rates in explosive plays, pressure, yards before contact, passing yards per dropback and EPA. This provides singular metrics to help quantity advantages on both sides of the ball instead of always having to go, “Offense ranks x, defense ranks y.”

The following three players might have a red flag or two in their Week 12 projection — that’s why they aren’t ranked as sure-thing top-12 options at their position — but I believe there’s enough of an edge in the matchup to warrant enhanced optimism.

Credit to us (me) for calling out the potential for Isiah Pacheco to boom last Sunday night, and also for nailing the 49ers victory by 10-plus points. Please ignore my incorrect assertion that Devin Singletary would become the latest RB to torch the Broncos. Thank you.

1. Zack Moss rebounds from down Week 13 performance, goes for 125-plus yards and scores twice. The golden handcuff boasts the week’s third-best matchup in combined rush yards before contact inside of a Colts offense that has low-key scored the same amount of offensive TDs as the Texans and Chiefs. Throw in the potential for the Jake Browning-led Bengals to actually keep things interested in a potential shootout, and Moss is my overall RB6 on the week. His utilization last week was the sort of stuff that RB1 dreams are made of.

2. The weather Gods are dicks and hold Jaguars-Browns, Texans-Jets and Rams-Ravens to under 30 combined points in each matchup. All three combine the chance for heavy rain with winds reaching the ever important 20 MPH threshold. Additionally, all six teams happen to boast good-to-great defenses, meaning life consistently moving the football already wasn’t exactly going to be a breeze anyway. I’m not completely fading everyone involved, but stark downgrades in the ole’ fantasy ranks are warranted.

3. Javonte Williams finally truly breaks out and scores 25-plus PPR points vs. the Chargers. The talented third-year RB gets this smashable matchup twice over the course of the next month. This Chargers defense as a whole hasn't been particularly good at slowing down opposing rushing attacks during head coach Brandon Staley's tenure in general, and things have gotten even worse since losing stud DL Joey Bosa. Overall, the Chargers have allowed 200, 102, 197 and 148 rushing yards in their last four games. Fire up Williams as an upside RB2 thanks to his top-six matchup in rush yards before contact and potential to see 20-plus touches in a sneaky shootout.

Other Week 14 Notes

• Jets RB Breece Hall is sadly just the RB22 in PPR points per game this season and hasn’t gained more than 50 rushing yards in a game since Week 5. Of course, it’s not like his offensive scoring environment has done him many favors: The Jets are the only NFL team to not have a single RB with a rush attempt inside the five-yard line through 13 weeks of action.
   
• Garrett Wilson’s 17-game pace despite, you know, is for 95 receptions, 1,055 yards and four TDs. Not exactly what fantasy managers were hoping for when they drafted him as a top-10 WR back in August, but still pretty good despite, you know.
   
• Yes, the Ravens might very well be the best team in the AFC and look the part of their most complete offense in years. Also yes, Lamar Jackson’s fantasy stats simply aren’t up to par with his usual excellence:
  • 2023: 18.5 fantasy points per game (QB9)
  • 2022: 19.7 (QB6)
  • 2021: 20 (QB9)
  • 2020: 22.2 (QB8)
  • 2019: 27.7 (QB1)
     
• And then there’s rookie RB Keaton Mitchell, who trails only De’Von Achane in yards per carry (9.5 vs. 9.3) among all RBs with at least 29 carries this season (lol). Small-sample size be damned: Mitchell could be in for a post-bye rookie bump if his ascension up the depth chart since bursting on the scene in Week 9 means anything.

• It seems like Derek Carr (concussion) is making his way through the protocol and has a chance to start Sunday after suffering what seemed like (another) devastating injury last week. It’s probably a net positive for Chris Olave and company to have Carr under center, but there’s just something about the Jameis Winston experience that is hard to look away from for better and (mostly) for worse. In Olave’s case, though, he could expect all kinds of fantasy-friendly volume if Winston does have to start at any point: Olave boasts an absurd 40% target share with Winston under center this season — no other Saints player is higher than even 16%.
   
• Colts WR Michael Pittman has been a PPR monster all season long and is up to a 123-1,259-6 pace after 13 weeks of action. Kudos to head coach Shane Steichen for using Pittman all over the formation on a weekly basis. Gardner Minshew’s undisputed No. 1 WR has eight-plus receptions in an NFL-high nine games this season and is ranked no lower than the WR13 by Fantasy Life’s team of rankers.
   
• Buccaneers RB Rachaad White has ripped off PPR RB12, RB10, RB1, RB10, RB12, RB18 and RB10 finishes in his last seven games and it’s like none of you even care.
   
• Shoutout to Mike Evans for clearing the 1,000-yard mark for an NFL-record 10th straight season to begin his career. It’s safe to say Baker Mayfield understood the assignment — but what’s even more wild is the fact that Evans’ current 86-1,434-14 pace across 17 games would be good for his most productive fantasy season EVER in raw PPR points (313.4). The Hall of Fame should probably start getting that gold jacket ready.
   
• Yes, Bryce Young’s season has been a massive disappointment by almost any measure. Also yes, the rookie made some cool throws last week!

• Fellow Panthers WR Jonathan Mingo could certainly use a few more of those throws to help alleviate him of a bad leaderboard to currently be atop: No player in the NFL has more targets without a TD than Mingo (67) through 13 weeks of action.
   
• Not that you were ever benching him anyway, but Bijan Robinson’s utilization has been on the up-and-up recently. Don’t be surprised if we get a true BOOM outcome against a Buccaneers defense that looked lost trying to stop Chuba Hubbard last week with both LB Lavonte Davis (groin) and LB Devin White (foot) sidelined.
   
• Joe Flacco scouting report from Week 13: He didn’t suck! Mr. Elite was actually okay and loves Elijah Moore (season-high 12 targets!), so there might actually be hope left for this Browns’ passing game just yet … but probably not this week due to token Cleveland winter weather. The absence of Amari Cooper (concussion) would push Moore into the WR3 conversation, but I’ll still generally be answering close start/sit questions with the guy NOT in the offense implied to score just 17 points.
   
• Jared Goff’s career indoor/outdoor splits garner a lot of chatter every time he’s forced to play outside the friendly confines of a dome, but for his career, we’ve actually seen Goff average more yards per attempt outdoors (7.44) vs. indoors (7.32). The same is true for yards per game (261.7 vs. 253.5). I’m inclined to more so favor Goff’s matchup against the Bears’ 24th-ranked defense in EPA allowed per pass play than this rather small-sample Fugazi.
   
• No WR room has a better end-of-season schedule than the Seahawks:
  • Week 14 at 49ers: 25th
  • Week 15 vs. Eagles: 32nd
  • Week 16 at Titans: 28th
  • Week 17 vs. Steelers: 17th
     
• You should accordingly pick up Jaxon Smith-Njigba if you are in the 42% of Yahoo leagues with him available on the waiver wire. I also wrote about some GREAT DST pickups for the playoffs here.
• Puka Nacua is currently on pace for 1,458 receiving yards this season. The rookie record in the Super Bowl era belongs to Ja’Marr Chase … at 1,455. Best of luck, Puka!
   
• Welcome back Justin Jefferson! The consensus top-five WR posted 9-150-0, 11-159-0, 7-149-1 and 6-85-2 receiving lines in his only four fully healthy games before suffering a hamstring injury in Week 5 against the Chiefs. Get your popcorn ready for this Sunday’s matchup against the Raiders’ underwhelming secondary.
   
• Josh Jacobs hasn’t been overly efficient this season, but remember those Summer fantasy studies citing x amount of RBs with y amount of touches and how they failed to put up the same sort of usage the following year? Well, through 13 weeks Jacobs (255) trails only Christian McCaffrey (261) in combined carries and receptions. The RB13 in PPR points per game, Jacobs has a chance to climb the ranks in a meaningful way during his smashable end-of-season stretch against the Vikings (9th in PPR points per game allowed to opposing RBs), Chargers (22nd), Chiefs (14th), Colts (29th) and Broncos (32nd).
   
• I know the trendy thing was to curse the Bills for firing offensive coordinator Ken Doresy … but it’s kind of produced good results through two games? Overall, the Bills scored a combined 66 points and racked up 898 total yards in matchups with the Jets and Eagles. Regardless of Dorsey’s situation — kudos to Joe Brady for getting the most out of his group to start his tenure. 

• The Steelers (16 - pre-TNF), Panthers (15.9), Jets (14.3), Giants (13.3) and Patriots (12.3 - pre-TNF) are the only NFL teams averaging fewer points per game than the Iowa Hawkeyes (16.6) this season. Not great!
   
• No QB has averaged more yards per attempt on passes *behind* the line of scrimmage than Brock Purdy over the past 10 years. Guess who is in second place? Yup, Jimmy Garoppolo. To be fair, Purdy deserves credit for ranking third in yards per attempt on passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield (19.4) as well this season. The second-year signal-caller is working his way past the “system” label, but man oh man is the system awesome either way. Only 2000 Kurt Warner (9.9) has averaged more yards per attempt in a single season than Purdy (9.6) among all QBs with at least 300 pass attempts in a season since 2000.
   
• But yeah: The weapons involved are pretty damn good too. Just look at these 17-game paces!
  • Christian McCaffrey: 2,071 total yards, 24 TD
  • Deebo Samuel: 1,125 yards, 11 TD
  • Brandon Aiyuk: 1,348 yards, 9 TD
  • George Kittle:: 1,044 yards, 7 TD
     
• It sucks to see Christian Watson (hamstring) go down just when it seemed like he was ready to really start replicating last season’s weekly second-half magic. Look for Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs to lead the way in this suddenly ascending Jordan Love-led attack, but Dontayvion Wicks is also a sneaky-solid FLEX in deeper leagues, or more likely a DFS showdown dart for my fellow degens out there.
   
• Derrick Henry isn’t in the concussion protocol and thus is expected to have his usual starting role come Monday night against the Dolphins. Either way: Please do yourself a favor and stash rookie Tyaje Spears anyway. He’s the only other Titans RB with an offensive touch this season and would immediately enter the upside RB2 conversation should Henry miss any time for any reason. The rookie has flashed in a major way when given the opportunity this season.
   
• My pick for MVP at the moment is Tyreek Hill. I’ve checked the legislature and it is in fact legal for a non-QB to win the award. I’d be willing to slide Dak Prescott to the top of the list if he shows out in upcoming high-profile matchups with the Eagles, Bills, Dolphins and Lions over the next four weeks, but otherwise give me the likely triple-crown winner on pace to become the first player ever to clear 2,000 receiving yards in the same season. Don’t give in to the mainstream media’s assertion that MVP has to be a QB award — last time I checked this is AMERICA.

If you’re still reading this: Thank you! Good luck in Week 14 and get your mind right for the fantasy playoffs. Also always remember: Duke Johnson is The U’s all-time leader in rushing yards.