Ian Hartitz previews Week 16 of the fantasy football season by going team by team answering the most important fantasy questions.

The best part about fantasy football is the potential to win a championship. The second-best part is avoiding your league’s last-place punishment. The third-best part is making fun of whichever poor manager “wins” said last-place punishment.
So what’s the best thing that you, a scholar, can do in order to accomplish any of these three goals? Control the controllables and get those rosters into the best shape possible for these final two weeks!
What follows are my 10 biggest questions ahead of Week 16 to accomplish that very goal and a bunch of other stuff that I found cool for one reason or another.
As always: It’s a great day to be great.
Pretty much these guys:
Wait, that’s weird. Only one Raven is truly someone who NEEDS to be started in almost every single fantasy lineup out there?
Pretty much, although there are still some quality options worthy of FLEX — or TE1 — consideration.
Let’s start with Gus “The Bus” Edwards, who is seemingly back to working as the team’s lead back with Keaton Mitchell (ACL) lost for the season. While Edwards was taking a bigger and bigger backseat to Mitchell in recent weeks, he was one of fantasy’s best producers over a five-game stretch that featured him score *nine* TDs.
Sadly, Gus also has seven games with under 55 scoreless yards. More of his fantasy production has come from pure scoring than any other RB this season:
Highest percentage of PPR production to come from TDs:
The Ravens are implied to score a rather pedestrian 20.5 points this week, making Edwards more of a TD-dependent RB3 as opposed to someone who should be squeezed into fantasy lineups of all shapes and sizes.
And then there’s this passing attack. Each of Zay Flowers, Odell Beckham Jr., Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Likely are within three targets of each other since Mark Andrews was lost for the season — but it’s been the latter TE leading the way in overall production and utility.
Zay and OBJ remain fine enough WR3 options, but they aren’t must-start players as long as Jackson continues to be willing to spread things out.
Likely is the only deserving of starting treatment in more leagues than not. He’s a legit top-10 option at the position this week following 4-40-0, 5-83-1 and 5-70-1 performances in three full games with Andrews sidelined.
The game of the week — or at least of Sunday — features an embarrassed Cowboys team looking to bounce back against ANOTHER high-octane AFC East squad, this time in the form of Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins. The matchup will feature fantasy’s top-two highest-scoring WRs if Tyreek Hill (ankle) is able to return to action.
A quick look at each team’s EPA per play on offense reveals that both are quite good at moving the football overall and especially through the air, but the Dolphins have maintained an advantage on the ground throughout the season:
And then there’s the defense, where the Dolphins surprisingly lead the way due largely to the return of stud CB Jalen Ramsey in Week 8:
Overall, the Dolphins actually rank first in EPA allowed per play since Ramsey’s return.
Here’s the catch: The schedule has been incredibly easy during this stretch. Aside from one admittedly tough(ish) matchup against the Chiefs, Miami has faced the Patriots, Raiders, Jets, Commanders, Titans and Jets during this span. Kudos to the Dolphins for holding Patrick Mahomes and company to just 14 points (KC also had a pick-six); just realize Dak Prescott and company will unquestionably present their biggest challenge since facing the Eagles back in Week 7.
This Dolphins offense is more balanced than most think, boasting a season-long +2% drop back rate over expected. They certainly look capable of at least somewhat replicating the Bills’ dominant effort on the ground — especially if run-stuffing DT Johnathan Hankins (knee/ankle) remains sidelined.
Of course, the Dolphins aren’t exactly at full health either. They will have a LOT more trouble slowing down Prescott and company through the air without the return of starting CB Xavien Howard (hip), S Jevon Holland (knees) and/or S DeShon Elliott (concussion). The entire starting offensive line missing practice on Wednesday also certainly isn’t ideal.
Ultimately, I’m expecting fireworks in a matchup tentatively not expected to feature any weather-related issues. All the usual suspects should be fired up in far more fantasy leagues than not in the week’s only game featuring a game total north of 50. I’ll take the Dolphins 30-27 in this one — but hopefully the real winner is simply AMERICA (and our fantasy teams).
It’s sure looking that way! His production has been borderline erotic since offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey was swapped out for Joe Brady:
While Cook has only posted a snap rate between 45-55% in these contests, his usage did take a nice leap forward during his breakout Week 15 performance against the Cowboys. As Dwain McFarland noted in his critically acclaimed Utilization Report: “In seven drives with the starters, Cook had even better numbers than the game log shows. He accounted for 62% of snaps and 60% of the attempts in seven drives with the starters.”

Dec 17, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (4) runs the ball in for a touch down in the second half against the Dallas Cowboys at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports
As Dwain also notes: Cook’s closest fantasy comps are all dogs. The second-year talent boasts the position’s second-best explosive run and reception rate — cementing Cook with 15-plus touches per week inside the Bills’ ever-lethal offense has turned him into a living nightmare for defenses and opposing fantasy managers to handle.
I believe fantasy managers only need one hand to count the number of RBs they should comfortably start ahead of Cook ahead of Saturday’s absolute smash spot against the league’s sixth-worst defense in PPR points per game to the position.
He certainly has a lot working in his favor. The ex-Falcons veteran has racked up an absurd 25 targets over the past two weeks, yet only returned 4-53-0 and 5-39-0 production due to brutal matchups against the Browns and Ravens as well as some arguable f*ckery from the referees.
Many of his targets have been of the downfield variety: Only DeAndre Hopkins (376) and Zay Jones (357) have more air yards than Ridley (284) over the last two weeks of action.
Oh yeah, another thing, Ridley is more cemented as Trevor Lawrence’s No. 1 target than ever with Jones (hamstring) now expected to join Christian Kirk (core muscle, IR) on the sideline. It remains to be seen if T-Law (concussion) will be able to suit up Sunday himself, but early reports seem to indicate there’s a chance. Luckily, the ankle injury hasn’t been severely impacting 2021 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick from a raw production standpoint, as Lawrence has cleared 250 passing yards in five consecutive games despite playing through the pain. He only surpassed that mark in three of his first nine contests to start the season.
Final note: This week’s matchup against the Buccaneers is as good as they come. Only the Eagles and Commanders have allowed more PPR points per game to opposing WR rooms, and the secondary is far from healthy with No. 1 CB Carlton Davis (groin) and FS Ryan Neal (back) both uncertain for Sunday.
To summarize:
Do you get what I’m saying? Jamal Agnew to the MOON, baby!
In all seriousness: Ridley is deserving of top-15 treatment *if* Lawrence manages to clear the protocol by Sunday. The presence of C.J. Beathard would downgrade Ridley to borderline WR2 territory alongside fellow No. 1 WRs with question marks under center like DeAndre Hopkins, Garrett Wilson and Drake London.
Well first of all: They suddenly are very much cool with throwing the rock all over the yard.
That +7% dropback rate over expected is a full 10% higher than their -3% mark during the first 12 weeks of the season. The presence of one of the game’s best defenses has resulted in plenty of drives to rack up dropbacks, leading to Flacco registering 44, 45 and 44 pass attempts over the past three weeks — the most in the NFL by a margin of 11.
However, Flacco’s performance hasn’t exactly been what the kids might call overly good. Don’t get it twisted: Mr. Elite has made some true big-time throws along the way and deserves credit for doing enough to win two of his three starts; just realize he’s also objectively been one of the league’s least efficient QBs on a per-dropback basis:
Throw in the utter lack of a rushing floor, and I think the conversation surrounding the soon to be 39-year-old veteran being an upgrade over Deshaun Watson is silly. Now, is the fact the conversation is even close incredibly sad when considering the relative contract number? Absolutely — but in terms of pure on-field performance, we can’t just ignore the ex-Texans signal-caller making some really nice throws against the Cardinals or helping lead a second half comeback over the Ravens in his last two games prior to fracturing his throwing shoulder.
Regardless: Flacco is racking up the passing production in this newfound pass-happy offense, leading to some serious fireworks for his pass-catchers. Overall, David Njoku (60.2) joins Sam LaPorta (65.3) and Evan Engram (62.5) as the only TEs with more than even 50 PPR points over the last three weeks, while Amari Cooper has returned WR18 production on a whopping 27 targets — the eighth-most of any player at the position.
Further helping matters is a Texans defense that has generally funneled their opponent’s production to the air: DeMeco Ryans’ defense ranks 21st in EPA against the pass compared to seventh against the run this season, leading to them allowing the seventh-most yards through the air through 15 weeks of action.
Njoku is my TE6 on the week behind only Travis Kelce, Sam LaPorta, T.J. Hockenson, Trey McBride and Evan Engram (if T-Law plays), while Cooper is deserving of upside WR2 treatment and someone I would start over guys like DeVonta Smith, Davante Adams and Brandon Aiyuk among others.
Last week’s 381-yard, four-TD performance came a bit out of nowhere. Sure, the Packers didn’t exactly boast a world-beating defense coming in, but Mayfield had previously gone four consecutive games under 250 passing yards while combining for “just” six scores through the air.
So what changed? Well, Green Bay’s reluctance to test these WRs even a little bit in man coverage certainly didn’t help matters.
Indeed: Mayfield has averaged 7.6 yards per attempt on a 66% completion rate against primary zone coverages this season compared to 5.6 and 50% marks vs. man-heavy schemes. Note that the majority of NFL coverages are zones, and many have man-match principles.
This brings us to the Jaguars … who have run the league’s seventh-most Cover-3 while playing the eighth-lowest rate of Cover-1. Starting CB Tyson Campbell (quad) and FS Andre Cisco (groin) being banged up hasn’t helped. The results have been almost unanimously bad, as Jacksonville has allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing QBs and the fifth-most passing yards overall.
At the risk of getting too excited about a great matchup following a one-week boom, Mayfield deserves legit borderline QB1 consideration in this spot and is someone I would start ahead of guys like Joe Flacco, Russell Wilson, Nick Mullens and Sam Howell among others. Hopefully your playoff squad is already set up with a far better QB, but Baker stands out as the week’s best streamer for anyone forced to deal with ill-time injuries at the position.
Continue to lock Mike Evans and Rachaad White into lineups of all shapes, while Chris Godwin is a borderline WR2 and Cade Otton more of a low-end TD-dependent TE2.
On the one hand, the Eagles have thrown for 220 or fewer yards in four of five games following their Week 10 bye. On the other hand, they have faced four objectively great defenses during that stretch in the form of the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers and Cowboys.
This brings us to last Monday night’s dud against the Seahawks, who managed to limit Jalen Hurts and company to just 17 points and 143 yards through the air despite not having the services of stud rookie CB Devon Witherspoon (hip). It was ugly, as Hurts posted season-low marks in yards per attempt (4.6) and completion rate (54.8%).

Dec 3, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (1) passes the ball against the San Francisco 49ers during the first quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports
Lucky for Hurts, the tush push continues to keep his fantasy floor near most signal-caller’s ceilings. Consider: Hurts has more fantasy points from purely rushing yards and TDs than everyone other than Christian McCaffrey, Raheem Mostert, Derrick Henry, David Montgomery and Kyren Williams.
Hurts and fellow rushing extraordinaire Lamar Jackson rank just 15th and 16th in total fantasy points from passing production this season (Brock Purdy leads the way for those wondering). He ripped off 7-77-1, 9-13-0 and 9-34-1 rushing performances in three matchups with the Giants last season — continue to fire up Hurts as a top-two option at the position thanks in large part to the real life cheat code that is the tush push.
As for these WRs, there’s been a new No. 1 producer in five games since the team’s Week 10 bye:
Both Smith (WR7) and Brown (WR23) have still both posted top-24 numbers at the position during this stretch; just realize the newfound presence of Dallas Goedert adds more stress on both ahead of matchups against the Giants and Cardinals — two games that probably won’t force the Eagles overly keeping their foot on the gas in the passing game for four quarters.
Ultimately, both WRs (especially AJB, because he’s still AJB) should continue to be started in fantasy lineups of most shapes and sizes, Goedert is a low-end TE1 with more severe weekly volume concerns, and D’Andre Swift has settled in as more of a borderline WR2 due to his utter lack of goal-line work and recent downgrade in pass-game usage.
Seriously: Swift has caught just five passes for a total of 12 scoreless yards in his last four games combined! In this economy!
Pretty, pretty, pretty highly, especially lately considering how hot the Packers’ second-round pick has been over the last month and a half:
Sadly, a toe injury kept Reed out of practice on Wednesday and leaves his status for Sunday’s winnable matchup against the Panthers in question. This sucks, as only five rookies have been more efficient on a per-route basis this season:
That’s right: Fellow Packers WR Dontayvion Wicks has also emerged as one of the position’s more pleasant year-one surprises. The fifth-round pick posted career-high marks in targets (7), receptions (6) and yards (97) alike in Week 15 with Reed joining Christian Watson (hamstring) on the bench for large portions of the game. Jordan Love has featured Reed (18 targets) and Wicks (12) ahead of both Romeo Doubs (10) and TE Tucker Kraft (10) during the last two weeks with Watson sidelined.
Kudos to the Panthers for allowing the fourth-fewest PPR points per game to opposing WRs this season, but at this point it’s tough to not give Love the benefit of the doubt. His 223.8 fantasy points from purely passing production this season rank seventh and are within 12 points of both Patrick Mahomes (235) and Josh Allen (232). Any level of condensed target share here is a big deal in fantasy land.
Ultimately, Reed will be a recommended start as a low-end WR2 if healthy enough to suit up, which would leave Wicks and Doubs more so as FLEX-worthy WR4 types. However, the latter WRs would upgrade into top-36 territory should the versatile rookie be sidelined. TE-needy managers can look to Kraft for TD-dependent TE2 production if Luke Musgrave (kidney, IR) remains sidelined.
Let’s just say you BARELY need to use your toes to count the number of WRs to start ahead of him this week.
The rookie has been absolutely en fuego since returning from the Chiefs’ Week 10 bye:
Overall, only Deebo Samuel, Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb have more PPR points than Rice over the past five weeks of action. Not too shabby of company to be in!
Up next is the same Raiders defense that Rice returned a top-three finish against back in Week 12. His lowly 4.8-yard average target depth (second-lowest at the position) demonstrates the reality that Patrick Mahomes still isn’t overly looking for the rookie downfield, but gadget-esque usage is far less of a problem when it doesn’t take away from a full-time role — which Rice has had to the tune of 82% and 93% route rates over the past two weeks.
Overall, the only WRs I would start ahead of Rice in full-PPR settings this weekend: CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, Tyreek Hill, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Justin Jefferson, Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel and D.J. Moore. That’s it.
Every week I put together matchup-specific charts to help determine the week’s biggest mismatches by combining offensive and defensive rates in explosive plays, pressure, yards before contact, passing yards per dropback and EPA. This provides singular metrics to help quantity advantages on both sides of the ball instead of always having to go, “Offense ranks x, defense ranks y.”
The following three players might have a red flag or two in their Week 16 projection — that’s why they aren’t ranked as sure-thing top-12 options at their position — but I believe there’s enough of an edge in the matchup to warrant enhanced optimism.
Credit to us (me) for calling out the potential for Amari Cooper and Jahmyr Gibbs to boom last weekend. Please ignore my incorrect assertions that Justin Fields and David Montgomery would ball out. Thank you.
1. Drake London benefits mightily from having Taylor Heinicke under center, torches the Colts for a 7-115-1 receiving line. No QB is expected to have more consistently clean pockets than Heinicke this week in terms of combined pressure rate, and the dueling mid defenses involved leads me to believe this could turn into a sneaky shootout of sorts. There's always a low floor here — just look at Week 13 (1-8-0) and Week 15 (2-24-0) — but as Week 14 (10-172-0) demonstrated: London remains a special talent plenty capable of making big-time plays when given the opportunity.
2. D'Andre Swift gets back to booming, totals over 100 yards and finds the end zone against the Giants. No rushing attack has a better matchup in terms of combined rush yards before contact than Jason Kelce and company. All Swift needs to worry about is scoring before the offense gets to the one-yard line — but at least there should be more than a few fantasy-friendly TD opportunities inside of an offense currently implied to score a week-high 28 points.
3. 49ers put forward their post dominant performance yet and dog-walk the Ravens 35-10. The injury bug is biting Baltimore at the wrong time while San Fran continues to look largely unstoppable on offense and defense. This is less of an indictment on the Ravens and more so a hunch that this 49ers team is simply THAT good. Brock Purdy and company have the expected advantage in combined explosive run AND pass play rate; making Lamar Jackson and the Ravens one-dimensional via putting up points early and often could prevent them from deploying their usual run-first attack.
Best of luck to everyone in Week 16 and beyond!

