Fantasy Questions Week 4. Key Questions For Every Team.

Exactly 16.7% of the 2023 NFL regular season has concluded, meaning we have all sorts of things to talk about ahead of what sure looks like an exhilarating Week 4 slate.

Today’s goal: Break down Week 4 by asking — and attempting to answer — the most meaningful fantasy-related questions possible.

And maybe even have some fun too. Because, you know, why not?

Questions are ordered chronologically by game. Check out the Fantasy Life Game Hub for updated spreads and totals throughout the week. Fantasy Life’s team of expert rankers also have you covered (for free!) if you’re into that kind of thing.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

Falcons at Jaguars (JAX -3, 43.5)

Has the Bijan Robinson experience been as advertised?

While it’d be a lot cooler if Robinson had more than *one* additional carry than Tyler Allgeier, there’s little denying that the “generational” RB has largely lived up to that billing through three weeks of action:

PFF rush grade: 84.5 (No. 3 among 52 RBs with 15-plus carries)
Yards per carry: 5.5 (No. 10)
Yards after contact per carry: 3.8 (No. 8)
Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.23 (tied for No. 21)
PFF receiving grade: 66.8 (No. 27)
Yards per route run: 1.28 (No. 13)

We’ve all seen the dope overhead video of Robinson breaking one defender’s ankles after another: The RB9 in half-PPR points has largely made the most out of his opportunities all season long.

Continue to fire up Robinson as the upside RB1 he’s been all season, while the ceiling might as well be the moon should head coach Arthur Smith ever decide to fully turn the backfield over to the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 8 overall pick.

How low should expectations be for this Desmond Ridder-led passing game?

Pretty, pretty, pretty low. 27th in adjusted completion rate (71.1%) and 25th in yards per attempt (25) among 34 qualified QBs: Ridder has been objectively bad from an efficiency standpoint in an offense that isn’t exactly asking him to do all that much in the first place.

Ridder has also taken 12 sacks (tied for the fourth most) and has accounted for just five combined passing and rushing TDs in his seven career starts.

This is not a good list to be on! The lowest completion percentage over expected (CPOE) this season:

Kenny Pickett (-6.1%)
Desmond Ridder (-6.3%)
Justin Fields (-6.8%)
Zach Wilson (-7.2%)
Jordan Love (-8.2%)
Anthony Richardson (-8.4%)
Joe Burrow (-8.9%)

The lack of rushing upside for a signal-caller possessing objectively elite athleticism has been particularly disappointing in fantasy football land.

Obviously, Ridder himself isn’t a realistic fantasy option outside of two-QB/superflex formats — and even then you aren’t exactly pumped about starting him. The sad part is neither Kyle Pitts nor Drake London warrant no-doubt starting treatment either inside of the league’s 32nd-ranked offense in pass-rate over expected.

Pitts and London will probably experience some boom games at some point thanks to the reality that they are indeed good at football, but posting big-time numbers in the absence of big-time volume and anything close to big-time play under center is wishful thinking at this point.

I mean, c’mon man.

What the hell is wrong with this Jacksonville offense?

Through three weeks of action Trevor Lawrence and company have posted point totals of 31, 9 and 17, with the latter performance in particular being awfully disappointing considering it came against a banged-up version of a Texans defense that nobody thought particularly high of in the first place.

While Lawrence’s traditional passing metrics have moved closer to 2021-Urban-induced levels than any truthers would care to admit, it’s tough to be too critical with the third-year QB’s performance considering how often his pass-catchers have let him down.

As The Ringer’s Benjamin Solak noted: The Jaguars have lost more expected points on drops this season than any other team — and that doesn’t even include the failed catches along the end line.

Calvin Ridley has an NFL-high four drops through three weeks — including what would have been a 30-yard score in Week 3 — while Zay Jones (knee) has been banged up and was unavailable in Week 3.

This offense hasn’t been overly pretty, although it remains tough to overly fade the key parties involved in fantasy land thanks to the expected volume at hand.

T-Law is more of a low-end QB1 while the struggles persist as opposed to the ascending top-eight option he was drafted as, while Travis Etienne, Ridley, Christian Kirk and Evan Engram all remain recommended starts thanks to the combination of hope that each’s innate talent will overcome their respective sluggish early-season starts as well as the condensed volume at hand inside of this Zay-less attack.

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Bengals at Titans (CIN -2.5, 41.5)

How did Cincy find newfound aerial success in Week 3?

By throwing Ja’Marr Chase the football over and over again, that’s how.

JaMarr Chase Routes

Sadly, the performance still only produced 259 scoreless yards for Burrow, who trailed only Patrick Mahomes in fantasy points from purely passing production in 2023.

Clearly this passing game has been off all season long: Burrow remains the league’s single-worst QB in completion percentage over expected.

Last week’s Monday night W was certainly a step in the right direction, but Burrow almost carries a negative rushing floor at this point as he continues to play at far less than 100%.

Of course, this game is basically a stoppable force meeting a moveable object, as the Bengals’ poor passing game is matching up against the Titans’ pass-funnel defense:

Pass yards allowed per attempt: 8.4 (No. 29)
Explosive pass play rate allowed: 14.3% (No. 19)
Passer rating allowed: 108.7 (No. 28)
Fantasy points per game allowed to QBs: 21.8 (No. 23)
PPR points per game allowed to WRs: 53.1 (No. 29)

Both Chase and Tee Higgins are far too good to consider putting anywhere near that fantasy bench in general and especially in this spot, while Burrow is also deserving of borderline QB1 treatment as opposed to the mid-tier QB2 ranking he carried last week.

Are both of this game’s RBs among the league’s least-efficient rushers?

Neither Joe Mixon nor Derrick Henry have been particularly good, although the latter back’s performance in particular has been pretty brutal when attempting to discern an RB’s performance independent of their team’s offensive line.

RB Scatterchart

And things get even worse when accounting for the big uglies up front, as both the Bengals (0.8, 23rd) and Titans (0.6, 27th) rank among the game’s bottom-10 groups in rushing yards before contact per carry.

Of course, we’re still talking about two RBs with the potential to breeze past 20-plus touches during any given week. Continue to fire up Mixon as a borderline RB1, and Henry as a top-10 option in Week 4 and beyond thanks to the hope that they’ll production will catch up to what are still two very fantasy-friendly roles — particularly Henry, who has historically come on MUCH stronger as the year has gone on.

How close were Treylon Burks to booming in Week 3?

Very close — he finished as the week’s No. 3 WR in terms of unrealized air yards, which help us pinpoint exactly how much opportunity through the air a player failed to come down with for one reason or another.

Colts WR Alec Pierce (118)
Bucs WR Mike Evans (112)
Titans WR Treylon Burks (109)
Raiders WR Davante Adams (104)
Panthers WR D.J. Chark (101)

Of course, there’s a fine line between CATCHABLE air yards and prayer yards, which are more so heaves downfield that never had a chance of being completed.

It’s likely that Burks and DeAndre Hopkins experience some level of boom sooner rather than later — Ryan Tannehill *should* average more than 0.33 pass TDs per game moving forward — but any sort of meh efficiency inside of the league’s 27th-ranked offense in pass-rate over expected is no bueno.

Kudos to this Bengals secondary on solving Matthew Stafford and company far better than the 49ers or Seahawks managed in Weeks 1 and 2; neither Burks nor Hopkins are recommended starts against a group that has limited Tannehill to three pass TDs in their 180 minutes against each other since 2020.

Broncos at Bears (DEN -3.5, 46)

Has Russell Wilson really been the problem here?

He’s certainly not the only culprit at fault.

Just look at the laundry list of missed opportunities his pass-catchers had in Week 3:

Broncos WR Courtland Sutton caught a seven-yard score from Russell Wilson thanks to an apparently illegal pick, which was called for offensive pass interference.
Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy caught a short six-yard TD from Russ, but an illegal shift penalty wiped out the score. Week 2 Hail Mary hero WR Brandon Johnson was the guilty party on both nullified scores — makes you think.
Sutton also fumbled twice and committed a brutal drop on what would have been a four-yard score.

The verdict remains very much out on what exactly the ceiling is for this Sean Payton-led Broncos team, but fantasy managers will take a 15th-ranked scoring offense after last season’s disastrous dead-ass-last group.

Now set up against the league’s 31st-ranked scoring defense, look for Russ and company to cook more than ever in this Week 4 “loser leaves town” matchup. Wilson is a recommended streaming option and someone I would start ahead of guys like Matthew Stafford, Jordan Love and Dak Prescott among others.

Can Marvin Mims get a full-time role already?

The rookie’s per-route efficiency has been absolutely ridiculous through three weeks of action (min. 25 routes):

PFF receiving grade: 85.7 (No. 7)
Yards per route run: 7.22 (No. 1)
Yards per reception: 27.9 (No. 4)
Yards after the catch per reception: 7.3 (No. 8)

Throw in constant kick return goodness, and Mims has accounted for a ridiculous eight of the team’s 10-longest plays this season on his 12 touches (h/t Scott Barrett).

So: Can Mims be trusted in fantasy land already?

Sadly: No, not until Payton, you know, plays Mims ahead of Week 2 hail mary hero Brandon Johnson. Mims is a recommended bench stash thanks to his absurdly good efficiency metrics, but sadly in the year 2023 it’s impossible to score fantasy points without being on the field first (thanks Biden).

How has Javonte Williams looked through three weeks?

Not great, although his Week 3 performance did show some signs of improvement.

Still: Williams is a far cry from the talent that we saw tearing up defenses back in 2021:

PFF rush grade: 2023: 56.2, 2021: 76.0
Yards per carry: 3.8, 4.5
Yards after contact per carry: 2.4, 3.4
Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.14, 0.31

The Broncos actually rank fifth in rush yards before contact per carry, leading to Williams accordingly averaging the seventh-fewest rushing yards over expected through three weeks of action.

Luckily, Williams’ status as the backfield’s lead dog hasn’t gone anywhere; it’d make a lot of sense if his roughly 15 combined carries and targets go a MUCH further than usual this week against the Bears’ dreadful defense. Williams should win out in most close start/sit decisions this week and is currently the RB21 in the Fantasy Life consensus ranks.

If this isn’t the spot that Justin Fields and company get right, what is?

Good question. To say the Broncos have struggled to contain opposing QBs this year would be a massive understatement:

Jimmy Garoppolo: 200 pass yards-2 TD-1 INT
Sam Howell: 299-2-0
Tua Tagovailoa: 309-4-0

Of course, Fields’ true path back to high-end fantasy success revolves around his ability to get back to running like it’s 2022 again. The underlying utilization of designed QB runs in this offense makes Fields a rather great buy-low candidate considering the history of high-volume rushing QBs in fantasy football — even the ones who were rather brutal at throwing the football.

Ravens at Browns (CLE -2.5, 41)

Should anyone other than Lamar Jackson be started with confidence in Baltimore?

Rookie WR Zay Flowers remains deserving of WR3 treatment — particularly in full-PPR formats — thanks to his status as the team’s target leader and as a young, explosive playmaker.

Still, the early returns on this Todd Monken-led offense haven’t exactly painted the picture of the sort of high-octane unit many expected.

Seriously: This right here is an atrocity of a route tree for someone as dynamic as Flowers.

Zay Flowers Route Chart

It’s also fair to give Mark Andrews the benefit of the doubt due to his past excellence, even if his 6.5 targets per game and 9-80-1 production in two games has left many fantasy managers wanting for more.

Ultimately, the bigger issue this week is the presence of a Myles Garrett-led defense that has allowed just one offensive TD all season. The group has managed to create more havoc than any defense outside of the Cowboys and Bills on their way to allowing just 335 passing yards after 180 minutes of action.

Is the good version of Deshaun Watson officially back?

Let’s not get too carried away, although Watson’s Week 3 performance was objectively his best as a member of the Browns.

Backwards pass lowlight aside: Watson was largely cooking against the Titans’ pass-funnel defense, posting 289-2-0 passing and 4-16-0 rushing lines on his way to an overall QB9 fantasy finish.

Particularly impressive was Watson’s downfield accuracy relative to what we’ve seen over the last 12 months:

On throws 20-plus yards downfield

First 8 starts in Cleveland: 5 for 21, 146 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT
Week 3: 4 for 5, 116 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT

This Sunday’s matchup should give everyone a better idea as to whether or not Week 3 was an anomaly or a sigh of more good things to come — I’ll be leaning a bit more towards the latter outcome in the event that Ravens CB Marlon Humphrey (foot) and S Marcus Williams (pec) both remain sidelined.

Time to trust Jerome Ford as the locked-in RB1 that he’s produced as?

On the one hand, Ford has made more than a few GREAT plays over the past two weeks and certainly looks the part of the team’s best RB.

On the other, his Week 3 utilization alongside Kareem Hunt and Pierre Strong Jr. wasn’t exactly locked-in RB1 material:

Browns RB Usage

This could have more so been the result of the Browns 1.) Not wanting to force the run game against the Titans’ pass-funnel defense, and 2.) Blowout game-script that featured Cleveland up multiple scores for the last 31 minutes of the game.

Throw in the reality that Hunt (ribs, groin) is already banged up (albeit still expected to play), and it would be shocking if the Browns don’t find a way to feed Ford 15-plus combined carries and targets. Maybe not quite the locked-in RB1 workhorse usage managers envisioned, but still good enough for consensus top-22 treatment from the Fantasy Life ranking crew.

Commanders at Eagles (PHI -8.5, 44.5)

Is this the sort of spot to fade Brian Robinson?

Potentially. While Robinson has smashed early-season expectations on his way to scoring the seventh-most half-PPR points at the position this season, he’s still only played 61%, 52% and more recently 37% of the offense’s snaps as the team continues to keep Antonio Gibson involved in pass-first situations.

Sep 17, 2023; Denver, Colorado, USA; Washington Commanders running back Brian Robinson Jr. (8) reacts after scoring a touchdown in the fourth quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Don’t get it twisted: B-Rob remains THE No. 1 RB in Washington, as evidenced by his 20-plus touches in six of his last eight games — the problem is that the Sam Howell experience has a startling low floor, and Washington is comfortable keeping Robison on the sideline when they fall behind.

As this game’s 8.5-point spread suggests: The Commanders might have a hard time being overly competitive with Jalen Hurts and company this Sunday. It wouldn’t be surprising if Robinson is locked in as a top-12 option at the position for Week 5’s home matchup against the Bears, but for this week he’s more of a low-end RB2 who doesn’t need to be jammed into fantasy lineups.

Can we trust either Eagles RB as a legit fantasy RB2?

D’Andre Swift, but sadly only to an extent.

The problem isn’t with Swift’s individual production: He’s been AWESOME on a per-carry basis this season:

PFF rush grade: 82.1 (No. 4 among 42 RBs with 20-plus carries)
Yards per carry: 6.8 (No. 1)
Yards after contact per carry: 3.4 (No. 8)
Missed tackles forced per carry: 0.33 (tied for No. 1)

Rather, it’s the fact that Kenneth Gainwell returned to near split usage, indicating the Eagles remain comfortable not fully turning over the backfield to any single individual party.

This makes sense: It’s 2023 after all and this team wants to keep its RBs healthy for the stretch run. Additionally, the fact that Rashaad Penny and Boston Scott have largely been non-factors is great news for the upside of both Swift and Gainwell.

Still, the potential for this offense to run with the hot hand — and for Hurts to vulture every TD from the 1-yard line — makes Swift and Gainwell more volatile fantasy options than managers would hope for. Fire up the former back as a recommended RB2 start in this great spot, while the latter is more of a borderline RB3 until we see some better efficiency.

Is this Eagles passing game not quite as lethal as last year?

Correct! Consider: Swift’s aforementioned league-leading average of 6.8 yards per carry is nearly higher than what Jalen Hurts is currently averaging per pass attempt (6.9).

The Eagles are winning, albeit Hurts and company simply haven’t been as efficient through the air as what we saw in 2022:

EPA per dropback: 2022: +0.18, 2023: -0.02
PFF passing grade: 80.6, 69.6
Passer rating: 101.5, 84.5
Yards per attempt: 8.1, 6.9

A.J. Brown’s Week 3 butterfingers in the end zone didn’t help matters, while Hurts was also reportedly dealing with some pregame sickness last Thursday night.

It makes sense that the team is adjusting a bit slowly to life under new offensive coordinator Brian Johnson — don’t be surprised if Sunday’s home matchup against the Commanders leads to the sort of get-right production that this group has been lacking. Friendly reminder that Hurts racked up 515 passing yards and five scores through the air in two games against the Eagles’ NFC East rival last season.

Here’s to hoping this matchup brings an end to Dallas Goedert’s cold streak in particular: The stud TE has ripped off 8-101-1, 7-135-0, 6-71-0, 3-26-1 and 3-23-1 receiving lines in his last five matchups against the Commanders.

Vikings at Panthers (MIN -3.5, 44.5)

Has Kirko Chainz been playing some of his best football … ever?

Yes, the Vikings are 0-3 this season.

Also yes, Cousins is putting up pretty, pretty, pretty good numbers at the moment:

EPA per dropback: +0.1 (No. 13)
CPOE: +4.3% (No. 10)
PFF passing grade: 76.8 (No. 7)
Paser rating: 108.2 (No. 3)
Adjusted completion rate: 78.6% (No. 8)
Passing yards: 1,075 (No. 1)
Yards per attempt: 7.8 (No. 4)
Passing TD: 8 (No. 1)

Put it all together, and NOBODY at the position has scored more fantasy points than Kirko Chainz through three weeks.

It’s easy to blame Cousins for Week 3’s late-game clock management issues, but then again the mishap would have been a moot point had TE T.J. Hockenson held on to this rather perfectly placed final pass that wound up being intercepted.

Perhaps the thing really working in this passing game’s favor at the moment (other than Justin Jefferson continuing to be a world beater) is the dismal state of the defense. Twenty-seventh in EPA allowed per play and 26th in both allowed yards per play and points per game, the Vikings haven’t looked capable of slowing down pretty much anyone through three weeks of football — meaning more fantasy-friendly shootouts could be on the way.

While it’d be surprising if Cousins finishes the year as fantasy’s overall QB1, the man has worked as the QB12 in fantasy points per game for three consecutive seasons for a reason. Continue to fire up the 35-year-old veteran as a locked in top-eight option at the position ahead of Week 4’s matchup against the Panthers.

Just how much better is Andy Dalton for this offense?

The Red Rocket put up far better numbers in Week 3 than what Bryce Young (ankle) managed in Weeks 1 to 2 in yards per attempt (6.1 vs. 4.2), passer rating (86.9 vs. 66.6) and PFF pass grade (79.1 vs. 40.1). The biggest difference in play-style was Dalton’s ability to get the ball out quickly: His average of 2.32 seconds from snap to throw was nearly a full second quicker than Young’s 3.18 mark.

Yes, Dalton certainly benefited from facing the Seahawks as opposed to the Falcons and Saints.

Also yes, this Young-led offense has been brutal, and the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick finds himself alongside Zach Wilson and Justin Fields as the league’s bottom-three QBs in EPA per dropback.

It’s been two weeks; there’s no reason to write-off Young’s chances at becoming a great NFL QB. Still, it’s not hard to see that Dalton offers guys like Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark much more upside in Week 4, 2023. Fire up the former WR as a legit top-30 option if Dalton is again under center, while Thielen would drop to borderline WR3 status in this #RevengeGame against the Vikings’ porous secondary if Young is back in action.

How have the early usage returns been for Miles Sanders?

The production hasn’t been great: Sanders is one of just seven RBs averaging under 3.4 yards per opportunity (carries plus targets) among 43 backs with at least 20 opportunities this season.

And yet, it’s tough to argue with the rather great usage that the ex-Eagles RB has received through three weeks of action – particularly in the passing game:

Snap rate: 61% (No.15 among all RBs)
Rush attempts: 41 (tied for No. 15)
Targets: 18 (tied for No. 1)

Here’s the catch: Sanders still isn’t dominating usage in total routes (50% vs. 34%) or in two-minute situations (61% vs. 39%) relative to Chuba Hubbard.

The Panthers’ high-priced free agency addition has also been rather terrible with his pass-game opportunities, averaging an absolutely brutal 3.4 yards per target — the third-lowest mark among 23 RBs with at least 10 targets this season.

Ultimately, style points don’t matter in fantasy football; just realize Sanders’ borderline RB1-level usage likely won’t yield more than RB2-level production unless he and this overall Panthers offense get a helluva lot better in a hurry.

Dolphins at Bills (BUF -3, 53.5)

Are there really any key parties involved in this Dolphins offense who you should NOT start with confidence?

No.

Will James Cook ever score a TD?

Cook’s current 17-game pace has him racking up 306 touches for 1,893 total yards … and zero TDs.

Overall, Latavius Murray and Damien Harris have combined for six carries and three TDs inside the 5-yard line, while Cook failed to punch in his lone chance.

Beggars can’t be choosers in fantasy land — Cook has earned weekly upside RB2 treatment as an explosive pass-catching back inside this ever-potent Bills offense. Still, the lack of goal line opportunities will prevent him from ascending into the sort of no-doubt RB1 territory that his usage otherwise suggests.

Continue to fire up Cook as a top-15 option at the position in fantasy formats of most shapes and sizes; here’s to hoping he eventually turns a chunk gain into six points, because lord knows Dalvin’s little brother won’t be getting many chances at finding paydirt from inside the five-yard line.

Has the 2023 version of Gabe Davis been better than last year?

Kind of!

Davis in 2022 (17 games, including playoffs): 56 receptions-983 yards-8 TD
Davis 17-game pace in 2023: 51-901-11.3

This is who Davis is: a big-play receiver capable of racking up TDs thanks to the presence of a truly elite QB under center, but not exactly someone you should expect to consistently rack up receptions and yards regardless of game script.

There’s a picture of Davis next to “Boom-or-bust WR3” in the dictionary – don’t be surprised if he flirts with the former outcome ahead of Sunday’s likely shootout with the Dolphins. Only the 49ers (29.25) are currently implied to score more points than the Bills (28.25) in Week 4.

Steelers at Texans (PIT -3, 42)

Do the Steelers boast the NFL’s single-worst offense?

Let’s investigate! Going off of EPA per play:

Overall: -0.227 (No. 30)
Per pass: -0.208 (No. 26)
Per run: -0.262 (No. 30)

Fans can still take solace in the fact that the Steelers have been better than the Jets, but it’s hard to definitively name another offense that has for sure been worse through three weeks of action.

Kudos to Kenny Pickett for looking better in Week 3 against the Raiders as opposed to Weeks 1 and 2 against the 49ers and Browns (makes sense), but the real problem here continues to be the lack of ability for this offense to get anything going on the ground.

As someone who drafted Jaylen Warren more than any other RB in best ball land this summer: I would love to be able to sit here and say Najee Harris has been the problem, but that’s simply not the case. Overall, nobody has totaled fewer rushing yards *before* contact than the Steelers (18) this season.

This banged-up Texans secondary was supposed to be a nice get-right spot for Jacksonville last week, but that certainly didn’t wind up being the case. Fire up George Pickens as an upside WR3, Pat Freiemuth as a low-end TE1 and Harris as a volume-based RB3; just realize nothing is a given for a consensus bottom-three offense in the NFL.

Just how special has C.J. Stroud been to start the season?

The 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 2 overall pick’s 906 pass yards trail only Cousins (1,075), Tua Tagovailoa (1,024), Justin Herbert (938) and Matthew Stafford (916).

And here’s the thing: Stroud has looked good doing it (pause).

Stroud ranks eighth in yards per attempt (7.5) and has raised the expectations for this 2023 Texans offense in a hurry. There will inevitably be some rookie-induced downs along the way, but at a minimum Stroud is deserving of inclusion in the same pocket-passer QB2 tier as guys like Jared Goff, Russell Wilson and Matthew Stafford.

So much for that S2 test, huh.

Why isn’t Dameon Pierce getting anything going on the ground?

Probably because this Texans offensive line has been a living graveyard:

OT Laremy Tunsil (knee, missed the last two games)
OT Tytus Howard (hand, IR)
OT Charlie Heck (foot, IR)
G Kenyon Green (shoulder, IR)
C Scott Quessenberry (knee, IR)
C Juice Scruggs (hamstring, IR)

The Texans join the Packers, Buccaneers, Jets and Steelers as the league’s only units averaging 0.5 or fewer rush yards before contact per carry. That’s pretty terrible company, and doesn’t figure to move in a vastly more positive direction against T.J. Watt and a Steelers defense that stands out as one of just nine units allowing less than a yard before contact per carry.

Pierce’s o-line independent numbers like missed tackles forced per carry (0.28 vs. 0.15) and yards after contact per carry (3.3 vs. 2.4) are also down relative to last year; just realize the talented second-year back is hardly the only problem in this struggling rushing “attack.”

For now, Pierce isn’t a recommended start and is better viewed as a TD-dependent RB3, but don’t be surprised if the going gets a bit better down the stretch as the team’s big uglies (hopefully) heal up.

Rams at Colts (IND -1.5, 46.5)

Was last week’s relative dud a major sign of concern for the Rams?

Not necessarily; Matthew Stafford and company shouldn’t expect to get much going when dealing with two interceptions and six sacks on the road.

The larger issue was probably the Bengals’ coverage schemes. Stafford has easily been at his most efficient at zone coverages like quarters and cover-3 that keep three to four defenders deep, allowing him to pick apart the defense in the underneath and intermediate areas of the field. He simply didn’t get many of these looks in Week 3 (PFF):

Week 1: 65.4% Cover-3 or Quarters
Week 2: 52.6%
Week 3: 23.1%

The Bengals' willingness to run cover-one and cover-two made life more difficult on Puka Nacua and company than usual, especially when paired with a pass rush that pressured Stafford on a season-high 50% of his dropbacks.

Looking ahead to Week 4: The Colts have been a bottom-10 defense in percentage of snaps in Cover-1 or Cover-2, while they are one of just two units to utilize Cover-3 or Cover-4 on more than 60% of their plays this season. Small-sample size: But still.

Don’t be surprised if Stafford and company get back on track in a major way this week; I’m starting Nacua and Kyren Williams in fantasy leagues of all shapes and sizes, while Tutu Atwell (the PPR WR14!) is also a recommended start against a Colts defense that has allowed the sixth-most PPR points to opposing WRs this season.

Zack Moss RB1 szn?

Moss didn’t even play in Week 1, yet unironically finds himself in the Week 4 RB1 conversation after back-to-back sterling RB10 and RB5 performances. Overall, Moss has racked up 252 total yards with a pair of scores — and here’s the wild part: Moss has objectively balled the hell out along the way.

Undoubtedly not helping teammate Jonathan Taylor’s (ankle, IR) cause for a new contract, Moss is tied with none other than Christian McCaffrey for the league-high mark in forced missed tackles on the ground with 16 … AND HE’S ONLY PLAYED TWO GAMES.

Moss’ early-season success is particularly impressive when considering he hasn’t even had a chance to benefit from Anthony Richardson’s (concussion) dual-threat impact when it comes to widening rushing lanes in the read option game. Even then: Credit to this offensive line for averaging a robust 2.3 yards before contact per rush — the fifth-highest mark in the league.

Obviously, Moss’ status as a borderline RB1 in Week 4 won’t continue IF Taylor returns in Week 5 with no funny business, but as you probably noticed: That’s a big if. Even if JT returns to his usual full-time role sooner rather than later, Moss would still carry huge season-long handcuff upside on top of the potential to maybe even earn some semblance of standalone value should the 25-year-old talent continue to play so well.

Is Michael Pittman the NFL’s only player with eight-plus catches in every game this season?

He sure is, and this reality has allowed Pittman to work as the overall PPR WR11 through three weeks of action.

While Pittman isn’t creating chunk plays down the field, his role in this surprisingly solid Colts passing game is the sort of stuff that PPR dreams are made of. Overall, a whopping 28 of Pittman’s 32 targets (88%) have come with an average target depth under 10 yards.

Shocking but true: It’s easier to get WRs the football more consistently when the QB doesn’t have to throw the ball that far. Pittman has earned weekly WR2 treatment thanks to this volume-hog role; he’s a particularly rock-solid start in full-PPR formats regardless of who is under center.

Buccaneers at Saints (NO -3.5, 39.5)

Will Mike Evans and Marshon Lattimore get into another fight?

I hope so! This matchup has been a lot of fun over the years, although Lattimore has admittedly gotten the better of his longtime rival more times than not.

Of course, it remains awfully difficult to put Evans anywhere near the fantasy bench at the moment. The longtime stud has ripped off 6-66-1, 6-171-1 and 5-60-1 performances in the first three weeks of 2023, proving more than capable of keeping on keeping on as a fantasy WR1 despite going from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield.

Clearly Evans was mispriced as a WR3 during the preseason process. This Buccaneers passing game has the potential to be the 2023 version version of the 2022 Seahawks; don’t be surprised if No. 13 racks up his 10th-consecutive 1,000-plus yard campaign while providing more boom performances, even if maintaining current top-five production is probably wishful thinking — especially ahead of this spot against his arch-nemesis.

What should we expect from Alvin Kamara in his 2023 debut?

Hopefully better production than what occurred last season, as Kamara posted near-unanimous bottom-two career marks in a variety of both rushing and receiving metrics.

That said: The Saints might not have much of a choice but to feed their longtime stud RB. Jamaal Williams (hamstring) is out of the picture for at least another three weeks, leaving the backfield with unproven rookie Kendre Miller and journeyman Tony Jones as their only other options.

It’d be borderline coaching malpractice to note get AK41 15-plus combined carries and targets on a weekly basis; just realize this isn’t exactly the same sort of Drew Brees-led juggernaut offense happy to dink and dunk their way down the field. Fire up Kamara as an RB2 who should be in far more starting lineups than not, but the team's latest twist under center probably won’t help matters…

What does the presence of Jameis Winston under center mean for these pass-catchers?

The following positional target share numbers denote the difference in preference between Winston and all other Saints QBs since he joined the squad in 2020:

RB: Winston: 20.1% target rate, Others: 22%
WR: 61.1%, 56.1%
TE: 17.2%, 21.1%

Differences in personnel over the years obviously matter, but the vastly higher average target depth from Winston (10.3) compared to guys like Drew Brees (6.6), Taysom Hill (8.2), Trevor Siemian (8.2) and Andy Dalton (8.4) during the same span certainly does paint the picture of someone more willing to take chances to the WRs downfield as opposed to making a living checking the ball down.

Good news: Winston has one of the league’s better WR trios at this disposal for however long Derek Carr (shoulder) is sidelined. Don’t expect to see as many Kamara checkdowns as fantasy managers would prefer, but guys like Chris Olave, Michael Thomas and Rashid Shaheed don’t deserve to plummet down the ranks here.

This is especially true against a Buccaneers secondary that has allowed the 10th-most PPR points to opposing WRs this season. Get your popcorn ready in particular for a matchup between Thomas and “slant boy” originator Carlton Davis.

Raiders at Chargers (LAC -6, 47.5)

Are Josh Jacobs fantasy managers simply screwed?

Hopefully not, because I am certainly one of them.

The good news for Jacobs: He finally has a rush (10 yards) that went further than his new jersey number (8).

The bad news: Everything else. Averaging an absolutely brutal 2.4 yards per carry, Jacobs has needed 55 touches to reach 200 total yards — and he still hasn’t found the end zone.

Sep 17, 2023; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Josh Jacobs (8) gets past Buffalo Bills cornerback Taron Johnson (7) on a run in the second quarter at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

Then why should you, a scholar, not panic? Mostly because of that sweet, albeit not exactly efficient, volume. Overall, only Kyren Williams (86%) and Rachaad White (80%) join Jacobs (80%) as players who have been on the field for at least four fifths of their offense’s snaps this season. This has helped Jacobs average the eighth-most expected PPR points per game at the position this season, although understandably nobody has scored fewer fantasy points below expectation.

Of course: This Chargers defense is the sort of get-right spot that any RB could use. Jacobs himself has gone for 140-plus yards and a TD in two of his last three meetings against the Raiders’ AFC West rival, while Joey Bosa and company didn’t have all that many answers for the likes of Raheem Mostert (50 yards, 1 TD), Derrick Henry (95 yards, 1 TD) or Alexander Mattison (125 yards) in Weeks 1 to 3.

The early going has hurt, but keep following that volume and fire up Jacobs as the upside RB1 that he has been for the better part of the last 12 months.

Does the NFL’s most-efficient WR duo reside in Las Vegas?

Pretty close in terms of yards per route run:

Dolphins (7.52): Tyreek Hill (4.74) and Jaylen Waddle (2.78)
49ers (5.92): Brandon Ayuk (3.37) and Deebo Samuel (2.55)
Raiders (5.71): Davante Adams (3.16) and Jakobi Meyers (2.55)

Adams’ blowup Sunday night performance was a good reminder of what he’s capable of when given the sort of volume that his absurd talents deserve, but Meyers also deserves credit for largely making the most out of his opportunities during his first two games in Vegas. The overall WR21 despite missing Week 2 with a concussion, last week’s performance was nearly even bigger, but Meyers was one of many players to get tackled at the 1-yard line and NOT score a TD on the same drive.

Fire up Adams as his usual upside WR1 self against a Chargers secondary that has allowed the second-most PPR points per game to opposing WRs this season, while Meyers deserves legit top-24 consideration ahead of this mouth-water matchup — particularly if Jimmy Garoppolo (concussion) is cleared before Sunday.

What are the early returns on Kellen Moore’s influence on this offense?

Rather great if we’re going by points scored which, you know, is kind of the whole goal of football.

There’s simply no history of a Moore-led offense doing anything other than boasting a top-six ranking in point per game so long as he has his usual starting QB:

2019: No. 6 ranked scoring offense
2020 (pre-Dak injury): No. 2
2021: No. 1
2022 (post-Dak injury): No. 1
2023: No. 5

Sadly, the loss of Mike Williams (knee, IR) won’t make life easier for anyone involved, although Austin Ekeler (hamstring) appears to have a shot at suiting up on Sunday after missing the last two games.

Ultimately, Justin Herbert and Keenan Allen are locked in as elite top-five options at their respective positions in fantasy land, while Joshua Palmer and (to a lesser extent, for now) Quentin Johnston are deserving of WR3 consideration inside of a passing attack on pace to throw for 5,321 yards.

Patriots at Cowboys (DAL -7, 43.5)

Has Bill O’Brien truly fixed things in New England?

Not really, although consecutive matchups against the Eagles, Dolphins and Jets haven’t exactly laid out an ideal runway for the offense to especially ball out.

The fact Mac Jones is averaging career-low marks in raw completion rate (64.8%) and yards per attempt (6) also hasn’t helped matters; just realize there are some underlying signs of O’Brien’s influence being a positive relative to last year’s Matt Patricia experience.

RPO rate: 7.5% in 2022 regular season, 15.6% in 2023
Deep ball rate: 4.4%, 12%

The emphasis on the deep ball is certainly music to Jones’ ears … although the third-year talent hasn’t exactly made the most out of those opportunities so far. Among 32 QBs with five-plus pass attempts thrown at least 20 yards downfield:

PFF pass grade: 57.5 (No. 29)
Yards per attempt: 2.9 (No. 32)
Adjusted completion rate: 16.7% (tied for No. 30)

Obviously Jones isn’t working with the league’s best crop of pass-catchers; just realize he’s not exactly holding up his end of the bargain after last year’s assertion that: “The f*cking quick game sucks.”

Up next … is the league’s single-best defense in havoc rate. Credit to the Cardinals for making Micah Parsons and company look mortal; that said the Patriots’ implied 18.25 point total is the fifth-lowest mark of Week 4.

Is Dak Prescott playing the worst football of his career?

He certainly hasn’t been great thus far.

PFF pass grade: 58.9 (worst mark of career)
Passer rating: 90.6 (second worst)
Yards per attempt: 6.3 (worst)

Part of the problem has been a dink-and-dunk passing game that has produced a putrid 6.2-yard average target depth — a full 1.7 yards below Prescott’s previous career-low mark.

Still, the larger issue for this offense has been their inability to cash in on their red zone opportunities. No unit was better at scoring TDs inside the 20-yard line than the 2022 Cowboys (71.4%), but this year’s group has converted just six of their 15 red-zone drives into TDs 40% — tied for the sixth-worst mark in the NFL.

Continue to fire up Tony Pollard and CeeDee Lamb as the fantasy studs they’ve been throughout the better part of the last 12 months, but otherwise it’s fair to stay away from the other fantasy assets in this offense until we see some better signs of gelling.

Cardinals at 49ers (SF -14, 44)

Death, taxes, James Conner RB2 goodness?

That seems to be the case. He’s now peeled off seven consecutive RB2-level finishes since Kyler Murray (knee, IR) went down at the end of 2022.

Week 14, 2022: 15-85-1 rushing, 6-29-0 receiving, PPR RB5 (95% snaps)
Week 15, 2022: 16-63-1, 3-28-0, RB12 (91%)
Week 16, 2022: 15-79-1, 7-41-0, RB4 (97%)
Week 17, 2022: 16-79-0, 3-31-0, RB15 (55% - left early with a shin injury)
Week 1, 2023: 14-62-0, 5-8-0, RB20 (84%)
Week 2, 2023: 23-106-1, 0-0-0, RB15 (72%)
Week 3, 2023: 14-98-1, 2-18-0, RB6 (64%)

It might not always be pretty, but Conner is the true engine of this offense and the favorite to account for whatever points they manage to put up on a weekly basis.

The 49ers haven’t made ANYTHING easy on opposing offenses this season; just realize it’s awfully tough to bench any RB poised to rack up 20-plus touches during any given week.

Is this Kyle Shanahan’s most-efficient 49ers offense yet?

Pretty much! Their average of 30 points per game is the highest mark since Shanahan took the head coach job back in 2017.

2017: 20.7
2018: 21.4
2019: 29.9
2020: 23.5
2021: 25.1
2022: 26.5
2023: 30

On a per-play basis, Brock Purdy and company are averaging 6.05 yards per play — good for the team’s second-highest mark behind only the 2021 49ers (6.11).

Purdy doesn’t have the world’s greatest mixtape at the position; just realize he’s surrounded by high-octane playmakers in arguably the best-designed offense in the entire NFL. If you have a close start/sit question involving anyone on this offense, it’s probably not a bad idea to just go with the San Fran player.

Chiefs at Jets (KC -9.5, 42.5)

Is there a single WR to target in this Chiefs offense for the long term?

Rashee Rice, who got all the way down to the 1-yard line *twice* in Week 3, only to be left empty-handed in the TD department. The rookie quietly ran a route on a season-high 51% of the offense’s dropbacks and has earned a target on a whopping 36% of his routes run.

Does this mean you should confidently fire up Rice as anything other than a throw-up FLEX? Absolutely not, but there should be a time when this offense settles on a few select WRs instead of deploying their current six-man rotation — and the SMU product has shown more signs of life than just about any other WR in this offense.

No Chiefs WR managed to finish higher than the WR32 in PPR points per game last year; it’s very possible that nobody truly emerges as a weekly upside starter, but my chip is on Rice being the best bet to provide some semblance of consistent WR3 value by the time the season is all said and done.

Can fantasy managers fire up Isiah Pacheco with confidence?

Kinda sorta. It was good to see Pacheco find the end zone last week — those types of things should happen inside of this sort of elite offensive attack — but he’s also not surpassed 15 carries in any of his last 12 games.

It’s not like Pacheco can’t provide upside RB3 goodness with 15 touches inside of this ever-lethal Patrick Mahomes-led offense, but clearly Jerick McKinnon and Clyde Edwards-Helaire aren’t going anywhere:

Snaps: Pacheco (47%), McKinnon (30%), CEH (23%)
Rush attempts: Pacheco (35), McKinnon (3), CEH (22)
Targets: Pacheco (9), McKinnon (8), CEH (4)

It’d be a lot easier to feel better about Pacheco’s surprising target leader over the team’s veteran scat back if McKinnon was’t dominating usage in long-down and distance (97%) and two-minute (54%) situations.

Ultimately, Pacheco doesn’t figure to drop out of Fantasy’s top-30 options at the position any time soon, but he’s also not playing the role where we should expect a rise into the top-15 without the benefit of someone else getting injured.

Just how brutal has this Zach Wilson-led offense been?

Rather horrible! This is objectively the NFL’s worst offense when looking at EPA per dropback and EPA per designed rush.

Scatterchart

The team appears ready to splinter at the seams if reports are to be believed. This might actually be a net positive for everyone involved considering the Wilson experience has led to point totals of 16, 17, 20, 3, 17, three, 22, 10 and most recently 10 in his last nine starts.

Breece Hall saw his snaps jump a bit in Week 3, but he’s still not someone who can be relied on as more than a mid-tier RB3 due to both Dalvin Cook and Michael Carter continuing to stay plenty involved.

Garrett Wilson remains in the WR3 conversation thanks to raw talent alone; just realize anyone involved in this dumpster fire carries a very low weekly floor as long as No. 2 remains under center.

Seahawks at Giants (NYG -1.5, 47)

Is Zach Charbonnet starting to threaten Kenneth Walker’s workhorse role?

A little bit! Check out this handy-dandy utilization chart.

Seahawks RBs

Don’t get it twisted: Kenneth Walker is playing great football and deserves to be ranked as an upside RB1 ahead of this Monday night matchup, but Charbonnet’s Week 3 usage was indicative of more split work on the horizon — and a potential workhorse role should Walker ever be forced to miss extended time.

For now, Charb stays in low-end RB3 territory without the guarantee of weekly double-digit touches, but he’s a reasonable FLEX play in deeper leagues thanks to a golden matchup against the league’s sixth-worst defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position.

Any hope for a Jaxon Smith-Njigba boom game, like ever?

The hope is that JSN’s preseason hand injury is playing into the Seahawks’ early-season plans, because why else would their first-round WR rank FIFTH on his own offense in air yards (31) behind Colby f*cking Parkinson (41)?

Still, this group clearly is fine prioritizing D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as the clear-cut top-two options at the moment, making JSN more of a hopeful bench stash than anything.

It’d be a lot cooler if JSN had already experienced a cool breakout; just realize this isn’t all that abnormal from first-round WRs over the years. Guys like Tyreek Hill (6-43-1), Amon-Ra St. Brown (6-43-0) and Christian Watson (5-43-0) also all struggled to get going to start their rookie seasons before eventually booming in major ways down the stretch.

Admittedly, there are a lot more WRs with JSN’s early-season production who did not wind up booming down the stretch; just TRY to be a bit more patient with the 2023 NFL Draft’s consensus No. 1 WR if your fantasy roster can help it.

Can Daniel Jones and company take advantage of this soft matchup?

Hopefully! To be fair, matchups against the Cowboys and 49ers weren't expected to produce many offensive fireworks anyway, while Week 2’s dud-turned-comeback against the Cardinals looks a lot better after seeing what Arizona accomplished against the Cowboys last week.

It will really be time to sound the panic alarms if this passing game can’t get going against one of the league’s worst secondaries on Monday night:

Yards per attempt allowed: 7.8 (No. 27)
Explosive pass play rate allowed: 15.7% (No. 26)
Passer rating allowed: 98.2 (No. 24)
Fantasy points per game allowed to QBs: 23.6 (No. 27)
Fantasy points per game allowed to WRs: 59.1 (No. 32)

Fire up Jones as a rushing-induced QB2, while I’m going back to the well with Darren Waller as a top-six option at the position thanks to the pristine matchup and elite target share still on hand.

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