Fantasy Questions Week 7. Key Questions For Every Team.

Six weeks of NFL football are in the books — and I have some SERIOUS questions that will (hopefully) help us get the fantasy football rosters as right as possible with bye week szn fully in the air.

What follows are my 32 biggest questions (and potential answers) ahead of all the Week 7 action.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

Falcons at Buccaneers (TB -2.5, 38.0 O/U)

Can we really feed Bijan the rock already?

Robinson’s rookie campaign has been good, not great through six weeks of action. He’s “just” the RB14 in half-PPR points per game in leagues that don’t reward bonuses for cool sky-cam highlights.

Hell, Bijan isn’t even dominating the “Who is the best B. Robinson in fantasy? competition, as he’s scored a mere three additional half-PPR points over Commanders RB Brian Robinson.

The problem: Head coach Arthur Smith continues to insist on keeping Tyler Allgiere plenty involved in the team’s rushing attack.

It’s smart to not simply give Robinson the football 50 times per game and call it a day — but a bit more of a discrepancy between his and Allgeier’s rushing workloads is probably warranted considering, you know, just how much better the rookie has been with his opportunities.

PFF rushing grade: Robinson (80.6), Allgeier (68.7)
Yards per carry: Robinson (5), Allgeier (3.2)
Yards after contact per carry: Robinson (3.1), Allgeier (2.9)
Missed tackled forced per carry: Robinson (0.26), Allgeier (0.2)

The consistency with which the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 8 overall pick has picked up yards on his own has been particularly impressive: Only Kyren Williams (79%) has earned at least two yards after contact on a higher percentage of his rush attempts than Robinson (76%) among 49 qualified RBs.

There’s not much fantasy managers can do at the moment other than hope the tide changes a bit moving forward; until then Robinson profiles as a bit more of a mid-tier RB1 than drafters were hoping for back in August.

Will booms ever be on the way for Rachaad White?

It’s tough to be anything but thrilled about White from a pure utilization standpoint. I mean, this is RB1-level shiz right here.

Rachaad White

Of course, that far right column clarifies that White’s production hasn’t quite measured up to his usage, and he’s accordingly struggled to even rank inside the position’s top-24 options on the season.

The primary problem here: The offensive line. Nobody has averaged fewer rushing yards before contact (0.5) than Tampa Bay this season; it's not surprising to see them grade out as one of PFF's bottom-eight units in pure run blocking.

White also hasn’t exactly been a world-beater in his own right, ranking 24th in missed tackles forced per tough (0.2) and just 40th in yards after contact per carry (2.4) among 53 qualified RBs.

The second-year back’s stranglehold on the starting job doesn’t seem to be going anywhere, but it’s also not exactly a given the team’s o-line performance improves.

Fire him up as the volume-based RB2 he’s been all season against a feisty Falcons front-seven that has allowed the third-fewest PPR points per game to opposing RBs this season.

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Is it time to give up on Chris Godwin regaining upside WR2 form?

Meh. While Godwin’s production thus far hasn’t been pretty, he's still the WR33 in PPR points per game (12.4) sandwiched between Calvin Ridley and Tyler Lockett.

I’ve counted four occasions throughout the season where it sure looked like Godwin had a decent chance at hauling in a TD, only for Baker Mayfield to not hold up his end of the bargain. Some have been especially egregious.

Dec 5, 2021; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Chris Godwin (14) makes a catch against Atlanta Falcons safety Richie Grant (27) during the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jason Getz-USA TODAY Sports

Consistent inconsistency is expected inside of the Mayfield experience; just realize Godwin has just four fewer targets than Mike Evans on the season and should see better days ahead as a clear-cut 1.B option inside of a passing game that has surpassed its piss-poor expectations entering the season.

Godwin has caught at least six passes in each of his last three meetings against this defense; don’t be surprised if the good times finally start rolling on Sunday vs. a Falcons group that ranks dead last in passer rating allowed to pass-catchers aligned from the slot this season.

Commanders at Giants (WSH -2.5, 39.0 O/U)

Who has gotten the most end zone opportunity and has the least production to show for it?

Just three players have five-plus end zone targets and one or less TDs this season:

Titans WR DeAndre Hopkins (6 end zone targets, 0 TD)
Saints WR Chris Olave (6 end zone targets, 1 TD)
Commanders WR Jahan Dotson (5 end zone targets, 0 TD)

Can I get a sheesh?!

Sadly, Dotson’s slow start to the season reached a new low with a Week 6 goose-egg that included a brutal drop on what would have been an easy 20-plus yard chunk gain. His 28 targets on the season rank behind both Terry McLaurin (43) and Curtis Samuel (31) at this point; the 2022 first-round pick has been one of the bigger busts of 2023 thus far.

Kudos to Sam Howell for putting some truly awesome throws on film this season, but Dotson remains a recommended sit until we see some level of decent chemistry between the duo moving forward.

Is Sam Howell responsible for most of the sacks he’s taking?

Yup. On pace for an NFL-record 96 sacks taken, it’s not overly surprising to see that Howell has been the league’s worst QB at limiting the amount of times that pressures are converted into sacks:

Howell (34% of pressures have been converted into sacks)
Danel Jones (31%)
Ryan Tannehill (27%)
Deshaun Watson (25%)
Desmond Ridder (24%)

Howell has still done a lot of good this season; just realize the ceiling of this offense won’t be reached until the second-year QB can find a way to limit the frequency of these negative plays.

Should we make anything out of this new-look Giants WR pecking order?

For those especially desperate in deeper leagues: Sure!

There was finally a clear-cut big-three WR core in this Giants passing game last Sunday night, as Darius Slayton (93% route rate), Jalin Hyatt (80%) and Wan'Dale Robinson (73%) worked well ahead of Isaiah Hodgins (20%) and Sterling Shepard (0%) among others.

Unfortunately, Daniel Jones (neck) still hasn’t been cleared for contact, meaning Tyrod Taylor could once again be under center ahead of what might be an UGLY weather game if early wind forecasts hold true. I’d try to avoid starting any Giants not named Saquon Barkley and (kinda) Darren Waller if you can help it.

Raiders at Bears (LV -3. 37.5 O/U)

Is Michael Mayer the next thing at the TE position?

It’s looking that way! With a marked increase in his utilization over the past two weeks, Mayer is Fantasy Life’s No. 1 waiver wire addition of the week at the position and is suddenly looking like a viable upside TE2 ahead of an awfully enticing upcoming schedule:

Week 7 at Bears: 25th in PPR points per game allowed to TEs
Week 8 at Lions: 28th
Week 9 vs. Giants: 13th
Week 10 vs. Jets: 31st

The potential to not have Jimmy Garoppolo (back) this Sunday isn’t ideal, but at least the issue shouldn’t sideline Jimmy G for too long.

More importantly: Mayer is good at football. Dane Brugler’s ever-excellent pre-draft summary:

“Overall, Mayer needs to become more consistent with his blocking technique and execution, but his controlled athleticism, play strength through contact and stellar intangibles raise his floor as a prospect. He projects as a traditional Y tight end with immediate NFL starting talent.”

Widely considered the best TE in the class before the draft, the only thing that has held Mayer back — like a lot of fellow rookie options at the position — has simply been a lack of opportunities to get on the field.

Well, now Mayer is getting those opportunities, and the early returns have looked GOOD. Small sample size be damned: The Notre Dame talent’s average of 14.5 yards per reception is a full 2.2 yards higher than the next-closest TE among 37 qualified players at the position.

Who are the best streaming DST options to get me through the next few weeks?

Three groups stand out when looking at the easiest DST strength of schedules over the next four weeks of action:

Colts (Browns, Saints, Panthers, Patriots): Three bottom-10 offenses is hard to overly complain about, and even Week 8’s relatively tougher spot against Derek Carr and company isn’t completely unconquerable.
Seahawks (Cardinals, Browns, Ravens, Commanders): They get the 29th-, 23rd- and 28th-ranked offenses following this week’s matchup against the Cardinals, which let’s face it also looks more than fine on paper.
Raiders (Bears, Lions, Giants, Jets): Maxx Crosby and company have the third- and first-best matchups sandwiching a tough Week 8 matchup against the Lions.

Can D.J. Moore overcome the T-Bag experience?

Only Terry McLaurin rivals Moore when it comes to their generation's Andre Johnson of consistently being forced to catch passes from one mid-to-bad QB after another.

Ideally, Moore can still provide some booms with backup Bears QB Tyson Bagent under center — the rookie did absolutely pepper him with targets during time together on Sunday.

Still, the ex-Panthers talent isn’t exactly dealing with the world’s most fantasy-friendly schedule ahead of the team's Week 13 bye.

Week 7 vs. Raiders: No. 10 best defense in limiting fantasy points per game to QBs
Week 8 at Chargers: No. 32
Week 9 at Saints: No. 7
Week 10 vs. Panthers: No. 15
Week 11 at Lions: No. 14
Week 12 at Vikings: No. 21

The (hopefully) short-term absence of Fields won’t do DJM managers any favors on the field or in the trade streets; I’d try to at least wait for the ex-Panthers talent to put together something close to another boom before attempting to trade him at anything close to what his value was this time last week. Treat him as the boom-or-bust WR3 he’s unfortunately functioned as for most of his career through little fault of his own.

Bills at Patriots (BUF -8.5, 41.0 O/U)

Should James Cook be getting more work?

Let James cook? (Sorry).

Ultimately, Cook has been fine. His average of 4.8 yards per carry ranks 14th among 53 qualified backs, while his 14.7% explosive run-play rate is good for the 10th-highest mark at the position.

Sep 19, 2022; Orchard Park, New York, USA; Buffalo Bills running back James Cook (28) warms up before a game against the Tennessee Titans at Highmark Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports

The main problems have been:

Lack of a goal line role: Cook has just two carries inside the five-yard line this season, while Josh Allen (2), Damien Harris (2) and Latavius Murray (6) have combined for 10.
Pass-game work: Cook's 17 targets on the season are tied for just the 18th-highest mark at the position. His average of 1.21 yards per route run ranks 10th, but Josh Allen’s willingness to scramble and Murray’s involvement as a pass-blocker haven’t helped.

The likely absence of Harris (neck/head) condenses this backfield to just two parties for the time being; I like Cook’s chances of flirting with an upper-end outcome against this banged-up Patriots defense, but hopeful RB1 heights look shakier than ever without the benefit of a featured role.

Who have been the league’s worst QBs at throwing the deep ball?

Just five QBs have failed to average more than 10 yards per attempt on passes thrown at least 20 yards downfield this season:

Jimmy Garoppolo (10.0)
Derek Carr (9.7)
Baker Mayfield (9.1)
Joe Burrow (6.6)
Mac Jones (5.0)

Of course, this isn’t just a QB stat. Look no further than this pearl of a deep ball from Jones at the end of last week’s loss to the Raiders.

Look on the bright side: The Patriots’ 17 points in Week 6 were nearly as many as they scored in Weeks 3-5 combined (18)!

Sunday’s home date against the Bills figures to bring an inspired Bill Belichick-led squad, but nobody in this offense is of the “must start” variety at the moment. The only truly viable option is Rhamondre Stevenson as a low-end RB2 ahead of a date with the league’s eighth-worst defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position.

Is Ezekiel Elliott ironically averaging exactly as many yards per carry as Tony Pollard

Sure is: Both RBs have averaged just 3.9 yards per carry this season.

Shoutout to Zeke for actually busting a 74-yard TD last week … but it was overturned on a holding penalty.

Does any of this mean you should even consider starting Zeke this week? Absolutely not, but did you learn something new? Probably!

Browns at Colts (CLE -2.5, 40.0 O/U)

Is Jerome Ford making the most out of his opportunities?

He sure is! Among 53 RBs with at least 25 carries this season:

Yards per carry: 4.0 (No. 25)
Yards after contact per carry: 0.24 (tied for No. 11)
Missed tackles forced per carry: 3.7 (No. 7)
Explosive run play rate: 10.4% (No. 20)

Ford has also looked plenty comfortable in the passing game, displaying some crafty route-running during his limited opportunities.

The latter point is the only real “problem” here: Ford is more of a 1.A to Kareem Hunt’s 1.B at the moment, as the Browns remain reluctant to overly feature any single RB.

Sep 24, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Browns running back Jerome Ford (34) dives for a touchdown as Tennessee Titans linebacker Jack Gibbens (50) chases him during the third quarter at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

Getting Deshaun Watson back this week would help everyone involved, but either way Ford is set up for RB2-level success against a Colts defense that has allowed the 12th-most PPR points per game to the position this year.

What have been the league’s best defenses in creating havoc?

My favorite defensive team statistic is havoc rate, which takes the sum of every group’s total pressures, forced fumbles, interceptions, pass breakups and tackles for loss or no gain.

Basically, everything that causes “havoc” on a football field.

Just seven defenses have managed to create some sort of havoc on at least 50% of their opponent’s snaps this season:

Cowboys (60%)
Browns (57%)
Lions (55%)
Bills (54%)
Jets (53%)
Eagles (52%)
49ers (51%)

On the other side of things, seven units haven’t even managed to create some chaos on more than 40% of their defensive opportunities through four weeks:

Titans (39.7%)
Giants (39%)
Patriots (37%)
Falcons (37%)
Panthers (37%)
Broncos (34%)
Cardinals (33%)

You can view the full list of every team’s havoc rate here.

What has Gardner Minshew’s target distribution been like this season?

Minshew has started two games and relieved Anthony Richardson early in another pair of contests. His top target earners are as follows:

Michael Pittman (38 targets, 30% target share)
Josh Downs (27, 21%)
Alec Pierce (16, 13%)
Zack Moss (14, 11%)
Kylen Granson (11, 9%)

There might not be an avalanche of big plays with Minshew under center, but Pittman clearly remains the alpha target earner of the group. Overall, he’s racked up at least 11 targets in four of his six games this season and caught eight balls in each instance along the way — something only Stefon Diggs can attest to having done through six weeks of 2023.

Pittman is the WR20 in PPR points per game this season and remains deserving of that low-end WR2 treatment even in a tough upcoming matchup against Myles Garrett and company.

He’s the only true recommended start in this offense, as Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss continue to split things evenly enough to make both risky borderline RB2 plays against the league’s sixth-best defense in limiting half-PPR points to the position.

Lions at Ravens (BAL -3, 42.0 O/U)

Is this Lions offense as good as any in the league?

It’s sure looking that way! Jared Goff and company basically only trail the Dolphins, 49ers and the Bills in most key offensive efficiency metrics:

Points per game: 28 (No. 4)
EPA per play: +0.094 (No. 4)
Yards per play: 5.9 (No. 4)
TD drive percentage: 29.4% (No. 4)

Obviously, guys like Amon-Ra St. Brown, David Montgomery and Sam LaPorta deserve a lot of credit for making Ben Johnson’s system come to life, but it’s hard to not marvel at the QB, offensive line and offensive coordinator’s ability to make so much more out of less when it comes to looking at which offenses have produced the most points per skill-position dollar spent.

Lions ($1.02M to skill-position players spent per point per game scored)
Packers ($1.03M)
Dolphins ($1.25M)

Said offensive line is the most expensive group in football; this franchise is hardly penny pinching — the point is that this group is absolutely balling without the benefit of overly proven and/or expensive skill-position talent. Cool? Cool.

A road trip to Baltimore this Sunday isn’t the most ideal spot in the world, but all key parties involved should probably continue to be started in fantasy lineups of most shapes and sizes. This includes Jahmyr Gibbs (hamstring) if healthy; he racked up 19 combined carries and targets on a robust (for him) 60% snap rate with David Montgomery (rib, likely to miss time) sidelined back in Week 3.

Just how good is rookie TE Sam LaPorta?

Preposterously good.

The rookie sensation isn’t just balling out relative to other first-year options at the position — LaPorta is already making a name for himself as one of the league’s most-efficient TEs regardless of experience:

PFF receiving grade: 72.9 (No. 2 among 30 qualified TEs)
Yards per route run: 1.93 (No. 2)
Yards per reception: 11.2 (No. 8)
Yards after the catch per reception: 4.9 (No. 9)
Targets per route run: 25% (No. 2)

Those second-place finishes trail only some dude named Travis Kelce.

The return of Jameson Williams and a calf injury did nothing to slow LaPorta's usage last week, as his 11 targets and 81% route participation rate tied his season-high marks.

This Ben Johnson-schemed Lions offense has posted top-five marks in virtually every efficiency category through six weeks of action; we’re seeing a great example of just how bright a young talent can shine when paired with a capable QB and top-tier play-caller.

Only Kelce (17.7) and Mark Andrews (14.3) have scored more PPR points per game than LaPorta (13.3) this season. Fire him up as the upside TE1 he’s been all season even ahead of a ROUGH matchup against the Raven’s league-best defense in limiting PPR points per game to the position.

Is Lamar Jackson deserving of MVP chatter?

It’s hard to overly deny the claims at this point. Jackson continues to be lethal week in and week out on the ground while also putting forward arguably the best pure passing performance of his career despite his receivers generally making life more difficult than it has to be.

PFF pass grade: 96.2 (No. 4 among 35 qualified QBs)
Completion percentage over expected: +4.8% (No. 6)
Adjusted completion rate: 78.9% (No. 6)
Yards per attempt: 7.2 (tied for No. 10)

This offensive line has been banged up all season long. The team's only two losses have come in overtime and in a Steelers game that saw the team's receivers drop a single-week season-high seven passes.

LaMVP chatter is deserved; don’t be surprised if Sunday’s potential shootout provides more goodness on the ground as well as through the air for fantasy’s QB7 on a per-game basis.

Steelers at Rams (LAR -3, 44.0 O/U)

What should expectations be for Diontae Johnson (hamstring, IR) if he returns this week?

Hopefully his brief 2023 debut was a sign of things to come from a target perspective. Overall, Johnson went 3-48-0 on six targets in just 27 snaps before suffering a hamstring injury prior to halftime against the 49ers in Week 1. This 26.1% targets per route run clip is what Justin Jefferson has seen in 2023.

Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver Diontae Johnson (18) catches a pass in the fourth quarter during a Week 12 NFL football game against the Pittsburgh Steelers, Sunday, Nov. 28, 2021, at Paul Brown Stadium in Cincinnati. The Cincinnati Bengals won, 41-10. Pittsburgh Steelers At Cincinnati Bengals Nov 28

Of course, the overall upside of this passing game remains rather low, and the emergence of George Pickens doesn’t guarantee Johnson will be force fed his usual WR1-worthy target share.

Kudos to the Rams defense for posting top-10 numbers in lowest yards per attempt, explosive pass play rate and passer rating allowed this season; both Johnson and Pickens are more WR3 types while both are healthy for however long this Kenny Pickett and Matt Canada-led “attack” continues to provide far more bad than good.

Who have been the league’s best QBs at throwing the deep ball?

Chicks dig the long ball. Maybe? I’m a dude and think the long ball is cool, so I guess dudes dig the long ball as well. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, of course.

Here are the top-five QBs in yards per attempt on passes thrown 20-plus yards downfield among 30 QBs with 10 such attempts this season:

Jared Goff (20.6)
C.J. Stroud (20.0)
Tua Tagovailoa (19.9)
Matthew Stafford (15.7)
Russell Wilson (15.6)

Now, you might be thinking, “Why do I keep hearing about how good Stafford is playing when his box scores remain rather mid.”

The answer from at least Week 6: drops. Two of them specifically on what should have been TDs.

It’s never good to fully count out T.J. Watt and company, but this remains a pass defense that WRs haven’t had much of a problem with. Overall, only the Seahawks, Chargers and Commanders have allowed more half-PPR points per game to opposing WRs than the Steelers.

Fire up Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua as the WR1s they’ve *both* been all season, while I’m also treating Stafford as a recommended QB1 start thanks to the potential for his TD rate to move in a more fantasy-friendly direction moving forward.

Cardinals at Seahawks (SEA -7.5, 44.5 O/U)

Is Marquise Brown ever going to REALLY break out?

The artist known as Hollywood is the WR22 in PPR points per game this season. That’s a helluva lot better than many thought would be possible inside of a Joshua Dobbs-led offense.

Here’s the thing: Brown could be absolutely BOOMING this year with a bit more help from his friend. One of just five WRs with more than 700 air yards through six weeks, the ex-Ravens talent has been open for HUGE potential gains on more than a few occasions in which he (sadly) wasn’t given a catchable pass. THE MAN IS DUE.

Friendly reminder of what Brown pulled off during his brief six-game run with Kyler Murray (returned to practice Wednesday) last season while DeAndre Hopkins was serving his suspension:

Week 1: 4 receptions-43 yards-1 TD (6 targets)
Week 2: 6-68-0 (11)
Week 3: 14-140-0 (17)
Week 4: 6-88-1 (11)
Week 5: 8-78-1 (10)
Week 6: 5-68-0 (9)

Overall, the artist known as Hollywood worked as the PPR WR5 before breaking his foot.

Read that last sentence again. Madness. Only Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill and Justin Jefferson had more PPR fantasy points than Brown during the first six weeks of his Cardinals career. His pre-injury pace: 122-1,374-9 — and he looked good doing it!

Up next is a Seahawks defense that has allowed more PPR points per game to opposing WRs than any group in the league. Even if Murray isn’t quite healthy enough to return just yet: Fire up Brown as a recommended WR2 start overdue for a true boom performance.

Just how good has Kenneth Walker been this season?

Brilliant in fantasy land: Walker is one of just seven RBs averaging more than 17 half-PPR points per game this season. The second-year talent is also one of only five RBs forcing a missed tackle on at least 30% of his carries while his average of 3.3 yards after contact per rush comes in at a solid 13th among 53 qualified RBs.

Hell, Walker is even proving that pre-draft scouting reports about his lack of receiving ability were largely overblown: He hasn’t dropped any of his 11 targets this season and owns top-12 ranks in yards per reception (9.1, No. 8) as well as yard per route run (1.23, No. 12) among 43 qualified backs.

Up next is a rather tasty matchup against the league’s third-worst defense in PPR points per game allowed to opposing RBs. The Cardinals have struggled to slow down opposing RBs all season long:

Week 1 vs. Brian Robinson: 13.6 PPR points (RB15)
Week 2 vs. Saquon Barkley: 27.2 (RB3)
Week 3 vs. Tony Pollard: 15.1 (RB13)
Week 4 vs. Christian McCaffrey: 48.7 (RB1)
Week 5 vs. Joe Mixon: 13.4 (RB14)
Week 6 vs. Kyren Williams: 21.8 (RB3)

Chargers at Chiefs (KC -5.5, 48.0 O/U)

Is Quentin Johnston going to do anything … like ever?

Johnston’s Week 6 goose-egg wasn’t exactly what fantasy managers had in mind for the first-round rookie who was SUPPOSED to start booming with Mike Williams (knee, IR) out of the picture.

Instead, Keenan Allen and Joshua Palmer have simply emerged as Justin Herbert’s favorite two targets in the absence of Williams.

Hebert’s target distribution in two games without Williams has been as follows:

Allen (15)
Palmer (15)
Gerald Everett (7)
Austin Ekeler (5 - in one game)
Johnston (4)
Donald Parham (4)

I wouldn’t rage cut Johnston just yet, but he’s not someone who managers can trust as more than a boom or (likely) bust WR4 with this kind of usage.

Is Isiah Pacheco suddenly the most fantasy-friendly non-QB/TE in Kansas City?

It’s looking that way! Pacheco has been nothing short of a workhorse over the last month of action:

Week 3: 15-62-1 rushing, 2-16-0 receiving, 42% snap rate
Week 4: 20-115-1 rushing, 3-43-0 receiving, 60%
Week 5: 16-55-1 rushing, 1-9-0 receiving, 59%
Week 6: 16-62-0 rushing, 6-36-0 receiving, 63%

The consensus Fantasy Life RB9 for Week 7, Pacheco is deserving of legit RB1 treatment against the league’s 10th-worst defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position.

Packers at Broncos (GB -1, 45.0 O/U)

Who is the best streaming QB option for Week 7?

The following QBs are owned in under 80% of Yahoo Fantasy Football leagues and were even lower before waivers went through this week:

Geno Smith (77%): The QB2 in completion percentage over expected (+7.3%) behind only Josh Allen, Smith’s counting numbers haven’t reflected just how good he’s continued to play throughout most of 2023. He’s easily the top pick if available as well as someone who should see far more good days ahead sooner rather than later.
Jordan Love (70%): The QB10 in fantasy points per game was on fire to start the season but fizzled out to QB14 and QB26 the last two times we saw him before the Packers’ Week 6 bye. That said: Nobody has a better schedule over the course of the next month with matchups against the Broncos (No. 31 in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs), Vikings (No. 21), Rams (No. 18), Steelers (No. 19) and Chargers (No. 32) on the docket.
Sam Howell (54%): On pace to take 96 sacks this season — but luckily that doesn’t matter in fantasy land! Overall, Howell is the QB16 in fantasy points per game and is one of just nine QBs with at least 1,500 passing yards after six weeks of action.
Baker Mayfield (28%): Left multiple TDs on the table during last week’s brutal performance against the Lions. That will happen, but clearly the Buccaneers have the sort of high-end pass-catchers to prop up some booms every once in a while. Still, a high-end boom seems unlikely against this top-12 defense in yards per attempt (6.2, No. 6) and explosive pass play rate (12.3%, No. 12) allowed this season.
Desmond Ridder (12%): Joins Mac Jones atop the turnover-worthy play leaderboard with 14. Only 2019 Jameis Winston (19) and 2020 Carson Wentz (17) have had more in Weeks 1-6 over the past five years. Not great! Ultimately, these turnovers have helped produce a comeback-minded game script and accordingly 84 total pass attempts over the past two weeks, but it’s REALLY worth wondering just how long head coach Arthur Smith will continue to put up with this.
Gardner Minshew (8%): The good: Minshew racked up 55 and 44 pass attempts in only two full starts this season. The bad: He ranks outside the league’s top-25 QBs in stats like PFF pass grade (54.3, 33rd), yards per attempt (6.4, 27th) and passer rating (81.3, 26th). Style points don’t matter in fantasy land, but Minshew will be a far more appealing streamer in a few weeks after being done with matchups against the Browns and Saints.

Smith profiles as having the highest weekly median of the group, Love has the best next five weeks when focusing on matchups, and Howell is the most realistically available option also capable of supplying more than one boom in upcoming matchups. Cool? Cool.

Has Jaleel McLaughlin been one of the league’s most efficient RBs?

Abso-lutely.

While De’Von Achane (knee, IR) remains king in just about any efficiency study if you set the touch threshold low enough, McLaughin also finds himself firmly in the position’s top-five most efficient talents.

PFF rush grade: 85.5 (No. 5 among 53 RBs with 25-plus carries)
Yards per carry: 6.5 (No. 2)
Yards after contact per carry: 4.3 (No. 2)
Missed tackled forced per carry: 0.39 (No. 2)
Explosive run-play rate: 17.2% (No. 5)

While McLaughlin doesn’t yet have the sort of weekly workload deserving of weekly must-start treatment, more of the same goodness could lead to this three-back platoon continuing to shift his way.

I’ll be answering TOUGH FLEX questions involving McLaughlin with him more times than not as a nod to his absurd efficiency thus far; just realize he’s the Fantasy Life consensus RB28 for a reason.

Dolphins at Eagles (PHI -2.5, 52.0 O/U)

Remember when Tyreek Hill said he wants to gain over 2,000 yards this season? How’s that going?

Actually quite great. In fact, all of the Dolphins’ key offensive parties have absolutely bonkers 17-game paces at the moment:

Hill: 119 rec-2,306 yards-17 TD
Tua Tagovailoa: 5,315 pass yards, 40 TD
Raheem Mostert: 1,626 total yards, 31 TD

Fun fact: Hill’s average of 5.02 yards per route run is the highest single-season mark of the past 10 years (PFF, min. 50 targets). The next-closest mark: Hill’s 2022 average of … 3.2 yards per route run.

Up next is an Eagles secondary that ranks as a bottom-seven unit in half-PPR points per game allowed to WRs and QBs alike. Don’t expect much to go right for those poor defensive backs come Sunday night (at least they’ll look good though).

Is Raheem Mostert simply a product of this ever-lethal Dolphins offense?

Yes, Mostert has achieved a lot of his production with nothing other than hot, nasty, badass speed. His top speed of 21.62 miles per hour on this 43-yard TD is the fifth-highest mark by any ball-carrier in 2023, while his 23.09 and 22.73 MPH marks from 2020 remain the top-two fastest recorded times since Next-Gen Stats began tracking the metric in 2018.

Also yes, Mostert deserves credit for posting top-six rates in both missed tackles forced per rush (0.33, No. 3 among 53 qualified RB) and yards after contact per carry (4, No. 6). Next-Gen's No. 4 RB in rushing yards over expected per carry (+1.71): Mostert has been great even independent of the Dolphins’ ridiculously fantasy-friendly offensive environment.

The usage here dipped a bit when De’Von Achane (knee, IR) was coming on, and the eventual return of Jeff Wilson (finger/midsection) could lower the week-to-week ceiling just a bit. It'd make sense if Mostert doesn't boom quite as frequently in upcoming tough matchups against the Eagles, Patriots and Chiefs; just realize he will continue to warrant weekly upside RB1 consideration as long as he remains in line for weekly 15-plus touch workloads inside of the game’s top-ranked scoring offense.

Is it D’Andre Swift RB1 szn?

The ex-Lions talent has certainly made the most out of his opportunities on the ground and as a receiver, ranking fifth in yards per carry (5.3) and while already hauling in 23 receptions — tied for the fourth-highest mark among all RBs.

Still, Swift’s rushing production is being a bit skewed by the Eagles’ ever-dominant offensive line. Overall, he ranks last among 49 qualified RBs in percentage of carries to gain at least two yards after contact.

Good news: Stud RT Lane Johnson (ankle) isn’t thought to be dealing with an overly serious injury, meaning Swift and company should continue to see all the wide-open rushing lanes that they can handle. The top-five offenses in rush yards before contact per carry this season:

Cardinals (2.2)
Eagles (1.9)
Jets (1.8)
Dolphins (1.8)
Bills (1.8)

Overall, the Eagles are one of just four teams to gain at least three yards before contact on more than 30% of their rush attempts. Not too shabby!

The biggest concern for Swift on the ground this week could be the sort of shootout-heavy game script that forces the Eagles to largely abandon the run, but that could actually be a net positive considering the receiving prowess of the ex-Lions RB. Swift should be starting fantasy lineups of most shapes and sizes on a weekly basis at this point thanks to his myriad of ways to rack up fantasy points.

49ers at Vikings (SF -7, 44.0 O/U)

Are Brock Purdy and Tua Tagovailoa just two peas in the same system QB pod?

They are indeed each viewed as “system” QBs surrounded by baller playmakers in an offense designed by some of the very best offensive minds that the world has to offer.

A lot of that is indeed true, but guess what: Style points don’t matter in fantasy land or real life, and both signal-callers rank among the league’s best in nearly any passing metric measuring the ability to pick up as much yardage as possible per pass attempt (which is kind of the whole point of throwing the football, ya know?).

Among 48 qualified QBs:

EPA per dropback: Purdy: +0.38 (No. 1), Tua: +0.37 (No. 2)
Completion percentage over expected: Purdy: +3.8% (No. 9), Tua: +7.1% (No. 3)
Passer rating: Purdy: 111.2 (No. 2), Tua: 114.1 (No. 1)
Yards per attempt: Purdy: 8.5 (No. 2), Tua: 9.5 (No. 1)

This efficiency has led to great fantasy returns thus far, with Purdy (18 fantasy points per game, QB13) and (especially) Tagovailoa (21, QB4) emerging as consistent high-end fantasy performers despite their respective lack of rushing floors.

The “whatever the grand prize of your fantasy league is” dollar question: Can they keep it up?

In Purdy’s case, a lot of that could come down to the health of Deebo Samuel (shoulder) and Christian McCaffrey (oblique). Neither is tentatively expected to miss TOO much time, and the team doesn't exactly have the world's stiffest defensive matchups against the Vikings and Bengals before their Week 9 bye.

Bad weather, mid-game injuries and a badass Browns defense didn’t make life easy for Purdy last week. He still missed on plenty of throws in his own right — but this remains an offense with two rather dope available playmakers in Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Don’t expect Purdy’s standing as a weekly borderline QB1 to go anywhere in his winnable upcoming matchups before he really gets grooving again with a more healthy supporting cast (hopefully) available by Week 10.

Are Vikings RBs making less with more than just about any other backfield?

Pretty much! Both Alexander Mattison and Cam Akers have largely been brutal with their touches all season long despite having the league’s highest percentage of carries gain two-plus yards before contact.

Overall, Vikings RBs collectively rank 23rd in yards after contact per carry and 24th in missed tackles forced per carry. Not exactly league-worst marks, but also nothing to write home about.

Sep 10, 2023; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Minnesota Vikings running back Alexander Mattison (2) runs with the ball against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the third quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports

While Mattison has maintained his starting role and ultimately racked up at least 14 combined carries and targets in all but one game this season, his 18-44-0 rushing effort against the lowly Bears last week wasn’t the sort of performance that earns more touches down the road.

I’ll be answering close start/sit questions involving Mattison with the other guy; I’d rather start Rachaad White, James Cook, Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor ahead of this BRUTAL spot against Fred Warner and company.

Have Vikings pass-catchers low-key been letting down Kirk Cousins quite a bit this season?

Yes! Vikings pass-catchers have dropped a league-high 17 passes this season — no other offense has dropped more than 12 footballs through six weeks of action.

Overall, no offense has lost more potential receiving yards via drops (doesn’t include potential YAC):

Vikings (155 air yards dropped)
Rams (128)
Ravens (121)
Cowboys (104)
Texans (100)

It’s convenient to blame Kirk Cousins for everything, but he’s not been the root of most problems in Minnesota this season.

Sadly, these issues could be accentuated on Monday night against quite possibly the best defense that the NFL has to offer. T.J. Hockenson is the only pass-catcher who needs to be in starting lineups inside of an offense implied to score just 18.5 points — tied for the fifth-lowest mark in Week 7.