Week 9 is here and there are approximately four “good” QBs healthy enough to suit up.

Just kidding. There’s probably like 10. Maybe 12. Much better, right? 

Regardless: What follows are my 10 biggest questions ahead of this week’s action along with a bunch of other shit that I just so happened to find cool for one reason or another.

As always: It’s a great day to be great.

1. Has Dak Prescott been absolutely balling out since that debacle against the 49ers?

Why yes he has!

While Dak had some moments during the first five weeks of the season — most notably performing better against the Jets vaunted secondary than just about anyone — he’s put forward his best football in back-to-back wins against the Chargers and Rams.

Overall, Prescott has accounted for six TDs while throwing just one INT — which was tipped at the line of scrimmage, to be fair — over the past two weeks; he had just five TDs and tossed four INTs during his first five games of the season combined.

So is Dak simply playing better? Yes, to an extent, but head coach/play-caller Mike McCarthy also deserves some credit for seemingly making some real bye-week adjustments.

• Play-acton rate: Weeks 1-6: 26.4%. Week 8: 34.2%
• Pre-snap shift/motion rate: Weeks 1-6: 53.4%. Week 8: 58.7%
• No huddle rate: Weeks 1-6: 4.3%. Week 8: 4.8%.

This defense has certainly helped matters, but at the end of the day, only the Dolphins have scored more points than the Cowboys this season. Prescott deserves plenty of praise for his performance over the past two weeks and will hope to keep the good times rolling against an Eagles defense that has given up some HUGE fantasy performances to opposing QBs at various points this season:

• Week 1: Mac Jones (QB2)
• Week 2: Kirk Cousins (QB2)
• Week 3: Baker Mayfield (QB25)
• Week 4: Sam Howell (QB13)
• Week 5: Matthew Stafford (QB14)
• Week 6: Zach Wilson (QB20)
• Week 7: Tua Tagovailoa (QB22)
• Week 8: Howell (QB1)

2. Are there any defenses vs. specific positions that you truly believe warrant near-full fades?

I did some research on the best and worst strength of schedules in November, realizing that certain defenses have been absolutely lethal against specific positions this season.

The following defensive units have truly separated themselves from the pack when it comes to shutting down a specific position:

• Ravens vs. QBs: 8.5 PPR points per game allowed — Joshua Dobbs (22.9) is the only QB to score more than 16.5 points against them this season.
• Eagles vs. RBs: 14.2 PPR points per game allowed — zero RBs have gained even 60 rushing yards against this front-seven, and Breece Hall (20.3) is the only back to clear 15 PPR points.
• Jets vs. WRs: 21.4 PPR points per game allowed — CeeDee Lamb (143), A.J. Brown (131) and Stefon Diggs (102) all cleared 100 yards against this group; otherwise no WR has gained more than 50 receiving yards against Sauce Gardner and company.
• Browns vs. TEs: 5.9 PPR points per game allowed — Mark Andrews (5-80-2) did Mark Andrews things, but otherwise Noah Fant (2-32-0) is the only TE to gain more than 20 receiving yards against the league’s top-ranked defense in EPA per play against.

Applying this to Week 9:

• Geno Smith deserves a legit downgrade ahead of his trip to Baltimore against one of just four defenses to rank as a top-12 unit in both pressure rate and contested target percentage.
• Tony Pollard’s poor efficiency on the ground doesn’t figure to improve this Sunday, although his 6-61-0 receiving line against this group in Week 16 last season paints the picture of why he’s still deserving of at least mid-range RB2 treatment.
• Keenan Allen figures to still get his thanks to volume, but seriously: There really isn’t a big weakness here anywhere. Gang green ranks first in fewest yards per attempt allowed to WRs aligned from the slot (5, No. 1) and finally has both of their starting outside CBs healthy in Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed.
• Trey McBride managed to best what was previously an elite Ravens defense against the position. Still: Expecting rookie QB Clayton Tune to enjoy any level of success against Myles Garrett and company feels like wishful thinking. The second-year talent is more of a low-end TE1 option this week as opposed to someone who needs to be jammed into starting lineups of all shapes and sizes.

3. Should we start taking Taysom Hill seriously in fantasy land?

Kind of!

Actually, yes: The Saints’ TE/RB/QB/whatever has received a nice boost in volume in recent weeks after fishing with five or fewer touches in all but one of his first five games:

• Week 6: 1-2-0 rushing, 7-49-0 receiving
• Week 7: 5-18-1, 4-50-0
• Week 8: 9-63-2, 1-14-0

Overall, only Travis Kelce (69.1) has scored more PPR points than Hill (51.5) over the past three weeks of action.

What in the actual f*ck, man.

Expecting Hill to continue scoring so many rushing TDs (3 in his last 8 quarters) is probably wishful thinking, but his newfound pass-game role might just be here to stay. Overall, the 33-year-old jack of all trades didn't quite reach his robust route rates from Week 6 (69%) or Week 7 (75%), but his 43% mark in Week 8 was still far higher than expected given nominal starting TE Juwan Johnson was active for the first time since Week 3.

This Saints offense is finally showing signs of life and has racked up 109 total points in their last four games after only scoring 62 points during their first four contests of the season; Hill is deserving of weekly low-end TE1 consideration for however long he can hold on to this goal-line vulture/receiving TE role that he’s carved out for himself.

Credit to the Bears for allowing a league-low 3.3 yards per carry this season; just realize Hill should see ample goal-line opportunities inside of an offense presently implied to score 24.5 points — tied for the third-highest mark in Week 8.

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4. Is Jahan Dotson really back?

Last week was certainly a good start! The 16th overall pick of the 2022 draft hasn’t seen his usage decline all season, but ultimately didn’t gain more than 43 yards during his first seven games of the season.

A season-high 10 targets helped — as did Curtis Samuel (toe/foot) missing time — but the truly intriguing part here was that Dotson looked good on his way to catching eight of his 10 targets for 108 yards and a TD, demonstrating sure hands and an ability to create separation while lined up both outside as well as in the slot. 

Of course, Terry McLaurin (5-63-1) and Jamison Crowder (7-95-1) also enjoyed big games with Sam Howell throwing for 397 yards and not one, not two, not three, but four TDs against the Eagles. There was more than enough meat on the bone to go around … at least for last week.

It’s probably not reasonable to expect Howell to only take one sack in many more games, although on the other hand: This league’s 31st-ranked scoring defense looks to only be getting worse after dealing pass rushers Chase Young and Montez Sweat at the deadline. This profiles as the sort of offense that will have no choice but to throw the ball deep into games in an effort to feign competitiveness.

A quick look at the team’s leading target earners on the season demonstrates the reality that removing even one of the team’s big four pieces for a short period (possibly Samuel) could really open things up for the complementary options.

• McLaurin: 24.3% target share
• Dotson: 15.9%
• Samuel: 15.8%
• Logan Thomas: 14.8%

In short: Week 8 could be the start of bigger things to come in Dotson’s fantasy production if Samuel misses time, but otherwise, he more so continues to profile as a solid, yet complementary, piece of a boom-or-bust passing game. Not the worst fantasy asset to have ready to plug in during a bye week, but also not someone who fantasy managers should feel compelled to start even if there’s a fire.

5. Who is a prime buy-low WR candidate?

I’ve discussed unrealized air yard kings Chris Olave and Marquise Brown in recent weeks. And while I remain bullish on both the rest of the way, especially once the Cardinals get Kyler Murray back under center, I’m most interested in attempting to obtain a certain rookie receiver in the fantasy trade streets.

Enter: Ravens WR Zay Flowers. Just the WR38 in PPR points per game — but the WR27 when it comes to expected PPR points per contest. Ultimately, Flowers leads the Ravens in every receiving category; he’s just lagging behind in the scoring department.

Sep 10, 2023; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers (4) runs after a reception as Houston Texans cornerback Steven Nelson (21) chases during the second half at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Only seven players have racked up at least 50 targets this season, yet haven’t caught more than one TD:

• Chris Olave (76 targets, 1 TD)
• Michael Thomas (60 targets, 1 TD)
• Flowers (59 targets, 1 TD)
• Evan Engram (59 targets, 0 TD – sheesh)
• Chris Godwin (55 targets, 1 TD)
• Amari Cooper (54 targets, 1 TD)
• Darren Waller (50 targets, 1 TD)

Sadness in New Orleans — more on them in just a bit — but otherwise: Flowers stands out as one of the season’s most-fed WRs who simply haven’t managed to convert opportunities into six points. The man is due.

Notice the overall difference in QB performance among that group? Betting on Flowers bouncing back is betting on Lamar Jackson keeping on keeping on as one of the league’s very best QBs, which he’s objectively been all season long.

Andrews (10) has barely out-targeted Flowers (9) inside the 20-yard line; don’t be afraid to buy low-ish on this talented rookie WR who has already flashed tantalizing ability both after the catch as well as in the route-running department through just eight weeks of his professional career.

6. Rest-of-season thoughts on this Seahawks passing game?

Things in the Seattle passing game have been good, not great, this season:

• DK Metcalf (hip, ribs) returned to action in Week 8, but failed to make all that much (5-67-0) out of a whopping 14 targets. He’s objectively been a disappointment as the WR29 in PPR points per game relative to his preseason average draft position.
• Tyler Lockett has been coming on recently with 8-81-1 and 6-94-0 performances in two of his last three times out. Only trailing Metcalf by 0.1 PPR points per game, Lockett is making a case that the preseason ADP disparity between the duo was too large for approximately the 60th year in a row.
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba has “broken out” after the Seahawks' Week 5 bye with 4-48-0, 4-63-1 and 3-36-1 receiving lines in his past three games. Still, those performances have come on target totals of just five, seven and four; JSN’s enhanced usage has undoubtedly been at least partially tied to Metcalf’s injury woes.
• Jake Bobo continues to block his ass off and is factoring just enough into the equation to prevent Smith-Njigba from having a true every-down role. Overall, Bobo has run a route on at least 20% of Geno Smith’s dropbacks in every game this season – explaining why JSN has only managed to reach the 80% mark in games with Metcalf banged up.

It’s tough pin the consistency problem too much on Geno, who ranks fourth in completion percentage over expected (+6.4%) this season. Ultimately, this is a slow, balanced offense that doesn’t exactly lend itself to bunches of fantasy-friendly opportunities.

That’s the main problem here: It’s not like these receivers suddenly turned bad — none of Metcalf (WR20 in expected PPR points per game), Lockett (WR32) or JSN (WR64) have received the sort of volume where consistent upside WR2 production should be expected in the first place.

Up next is the opposite of a get-right spot against the Ravens’ ever-beastly pass defense. This group has been a rather massive thorn in the side of passing games all season:

• EPA per pass play allowed: -0.222 (No. 2)
• Explosive pass play rate allowed: 7.9% (No. 1)
• Passing yards allowed per attempt: 5.5 (No. 1)
• Passer rating allowed: 71.6 (No. 1)

Metcalf is a solid enough WR2 in the Fantasy Life consensus ranks thanks in part to all the QB injuries and bye weeks going around, but neither Lockett (WR30) nor JSN (WR43) are exactly getting must-start treatment from our rankers ahead of this tough spot.

7. Who should fantasy managers feel comfortable streaming at QB?

The following QBs are out either due to injury or on bye in Week 9:

• Aaron Rodgers (Achilles, IR)
• Kirk Cousins (Achilles, IR)
• Anthony Richardson (shoulder, IR)
• Justin Fields (right thumb, out)
• Ryan Tannehill (ankle, out)
• Kyler Murray (knee, questionable)
• Matthew Stafford (right thumb, questionable)
• Deshaun Watson (shoulder, questionable)
• Daniel Jones (neck, questionable)
• Tyrod Taylor (ribs, questionable)
• Brock Purdy (bye)
• Jared Goff (bye)
• Trevor Lawrence (bye)
• Russell Wilson (bye)

Throw in Jimmy Garoppolo and Desmond Ridder getting benched in favor of Aidan O’Connell and Taylor Heinicke, and it’s safe to say the QB slate has been flipped on its head for Week 9 (shoutout Pete).

Soooo what should QB-needy fantasy managers do exactly?

Ideally: Pick up Derek Carr off of waivers. The ex-Raiders veteran has cleared 300 passing yards in each of his last three starts and has back-to-back winnable matchups against the Bears (28th in fantasy points per game allowed to QBs) and Vikings (20th) before the Saints’ Week 11 bye.

And if not: Praying is probably your best course of action. Just kidding. Kind of — Danel Jones (36% rostered in Yahoo leagues) if active, Gardner Minshew (22%), Mac Jones (11%) and Taylor Heinicke (4%) would be my next-best sub-50% rostered recommendations for QB-needy rosters in Week 9 specifically.

I actually prefer Minshew as the top pull of the group thanks to his at least somewhat proven boom potential and matchup against the Panthers’ good, yet banged-up, defense.

8. Is this the worst version of the Chiefs offense in the Mahomes era?

Yes and it’s not particularly close regardless of what offensive efficiency metric you would like to use. The Chiefs’ ranks by year since 2018 are as follows:

Patrick Mahomes is still the fantasy QB5 on a per-game basis, while Travis Kelce stands tall as the overall TE1 for roughly the 99th time in the last 100 years: Things are more relatively bad than truly abysmal inside this Any Reid orchestrated attack.

Still, the constant need to rotate up to six WRs and three RBs has made it tough to overly rely on anyone. No. 1 RB Isiah Pacheco warrants borderline RB1 consideration thanks to the reality that he’s handled at least 15 touches in all but one of his last six games, but otherwise everyone involved — including rookie WR Rashee Rice — are more worthy of meh FLEX consideration than anything ahead of Sunday morning’s matchup against the Dolphins in Germany.

Seriously: No Chiefs WR ran a route on even 65% of Mahomes’ dropbacks last week. It’s tough to expect anyone to put up anything close to consistently fantasy-relevant numbers without more opportunity, especially ahead of a matchup with a Dolphins secondary that is getting healthy at the right time.

9. What happened to the Texans last week and should we be concerned moving forward?

Texans QB C.J. Stroud has been playing so well this year that it’s been easy to forget that he’s, you know, still a rookie.

That said: Last week’s scoreless 140-yard dud was concerning because it represented rather easily the offense’s worst effort since their Week 1 debut against the Ravens. Considering the difference in opponent and the reality that the Texans were coming off a bye week: It was very surprising to see them gain a season-low 224 total yards on the afternoon.

Ultimately, Stroud and company only put together two drives that lasted longer than five plays and gained more than 18 total yards. While their 92- and 75-yard TD drives were well done, we’re talking about a Panthers defense that had allowed at least 37 points in three of their last four games coming into this one.

The only real confusing takeaway from a playcalling standpoint simply comes down to the reality that the Texans didn’t lean on the 2023 NFL Draft’s No. 2 overall pick more. Stroud continued to flash the ability to put the football wherever he wants, but the offense’s drop back rate over expected continued to crater:

It’s probably not a coincidence that offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik leaned on the run so much in a matchup that featured just *one* rush attempt into a stacked box (per John Crumpler). Essentially, Carolina dared the Texans to run the football in Week 8, and they happily obliged despite their general lack of success.

This week’s hopeful get-right spot against the Buccaneers has Stroud and company poised to see the week’s second-best advantage in combined pass yards per dropback — I like the chances of all key parties involved getting back to business in the Houston pass game this week, especially with targets (again) condensed with Robert Woods (foot) expected to be sidelined for another week or two.

10. What are your three bold calls for Week 8?

Every week I put together matchup-specific charts to help determine the week’s biggest advantages by combining offensive and defensive rates in explosive plays, pressure, yards before contact, passing yards per dropback and EPA. This provides singular metrics to help quantity advantages on both sides of the ball instead of always having to go, “Offense ranks x, defense ranks y.”

The following three players might have a red flag or two in their Week 9 projection — that’s why they aren’t ranked as sure-thing top-12 options at their position — but I believe there’s enough of an edge in the matchup to warrant enhanced optimism:

1. James Cook cooks, and posts a top-12 finish in full-PPR scoring. The Bills have the week’s biggest advantage at the line of scrimmage in terms of yards before contact per carry and explosive run play rate. While Latavius Murray and/or Leonard Fournette don’t figure to make life easy around the goal line, Cook is due to rip off a big one (or two) and provides a solid enough floor with at least 13 touches in all but one game this season.
2. Eagles-Cowboys turns into a low-scoring slugfest and neither team breaks 20 points. Only Chiefs-Dolphins (50.5 point game total) and Bengals-Bills (49.5) are projected to be higher-scoring affairs than Cowboys-Eagle (46) this Sunday. However, this game total has already dipped one full point since opening despite 81% of over/under bets being on the over. Translation: Big (sharp) money is on the under in this one, which makes sense considering neither offense has a positive combined EPA per play mark going into this one.
3. Chris Olave finally breaks out, clears 100 yards easily and scores twice. Olave has now racked up an NFL-high 750 unrealized air yards on the year. Not every mishap has been on Derek Carr of course; just realize Olave is currently posting WR3-worthy production on WR1-level volume. I like his chances of getting right in a major way from the friendly confines of the Superdome against the Bears’ pass-funnel defense that had very few answers for Justin Herbert and company last Sunday night.

Other Week 9 Nuggets

• Josh Allen has posted back-to-back weeks with season-high marks in designed rush attempts (14% and 15%). Still not quite at last year's season-long 18% mark, but certainly a (designed) step in the right direction amidst a season in which he’s averaging career-low marks in rushing yards (23.6) and carries per game (4.5).
   
• “Yeah, I’m thinking I’m back. — John Wick. “ — Joe Burrow

• Remember that ongoing tracker last year involving Russell Wilson not having as many passing TDs as his Denver mansion had bathrooms? Well, kudos to Mr. Unlimited for already racking up 16 scores through the air in just eight starts this season — as many as he had in 15 starts last season. Fourth in completion percentage over expected (+5.9%) and sixth in adjusted completion rate (78.9%): Russ has been far from the biggest problem facing Sean Payton this season.
   
• The Packers have scored *nine* total points in their last five first halves combined. But things have admittedly turned around later in games: Jordan Love and company rank 29th in EPA per play (-0.229) and dead last in yards per play (3.8) in the first half, but third (+0.069) and fourth (5.9) respectively in the second half. Those numbers are inflated a bit from the comeback pass-heavy game script, but still: Maybe head coach Matt LaFleur should consider moving the clocks forward at Lambeau Field.
   
• With Gardner Minshew under center this season: Michael Pittman (55 targets) and Josh Downs (42) have worked as the clear-cut top-two options ahead of second-year talent Alec Pierce (24). Mnshew hasn’t done a great job protecting the football this season, but has accounted for multiple TDs and/or thrown for 300-plus yards in each of his last three games. All three are in viable fantasy plays against this banged-up Panthers defense.
   
• Tony Pollard’s efficiency and utilization alike are bad places. The man hasn’t scored a TD on an NFL-high 121 consecutive touches … but maybe just maybe one day the Cowboys will play a normal football game? Their halftime point margins in seven games this year:
  • Week 1: 26-0 Cowboys
  • Week 2: 18-10 Cowboys
  • Week 3: 21-10 Cardinals
  • Week 4: 28-3 Cowboys
  • Week 5: 21-7 49ers
  • Week 6: 10-7 Cowboys
  • Week 8: 33-9 Cowboys
    • This isn’t just an unideal game script — we’re talking about one game after another that was more or less decided after 30 minutes of action. Overall, a league-low 28% of the Cowboys’ offensive plays have come with the score between just six points in one direction or another (per Fantasy Points Scott Barrett). Here’s to hoping the Cowboys finally play in a normal game this Sunday in their NFC East showdown against the Eagles.
       
• Doesn’t it sort of feel like the Chargers are trying to fit a peg (Quentin Johnston) into a round hole (downfield threat)? Not that QJ can’t function in this area of the game, but the rookie’s ridiculous YAC skillz have simply felt underutilized at the NFL level. I mean, 6-foot-3, 208-pound receivers shouldn’t be able to move like this.

• QBs that have lost the most yards from drops (not including any potential YAC): Kirk Cousins (172), Matthew Stafford (152), Jared Goff (138), Patrick Mahomes (133) and Sam Howell (130). Say it with me everybody: Sheesh.
   
• Patriots rookie WR Demario Douglas led the Patriots in route participation rate last week and could continue to do so moving forward with Kendrick Bourne (knee, IR) sidelined. Douglas was featured in the Fantasy Life Waiver Wire Tool and is set up BRILLIANTLY in Week 9 against the Commanders’ 31st-ranked defense in PPR points per game allowed to the position … and that was WITH recently traded pass rushers Chase Young (49ers) and Montez Sweat (Bears).
   
• The league’s best and worst offenses when looking at who is best at efficiently moving the football both on the ground and few the air:

• Has the clock struck midnight on Baker Mayfield’s Cinderella 2023 story? Kind of:
  • Week 1: 79.9 PFF pass grade (No. 5)
  • Week 2: 73.5 (No. 11)
  • Week 3: 61.4 (No. 21)
  • Week 4: 62.2 (No. 20)
  • Week 5: BYE
  • Week 6: 61.7 (No. 19)
  • Week 7: 57.8 (No. 21)
  • Week 8: 69.7 (No. 13)
     
• Mayfield hasn’t thrown for multiple scores and cleared even 250 yards in the same game all season. Kudos to the 2018 NFL Draft’s No. 1 overall pick for helping Mike Evans (1,231 yard pace) keep on keeping on, but otherwise the league’s 27th-ranked scoring offense is pretty close to being who we thought they were.
   
• Sam Howell took just one sack in Week 8 — the first time all season he wasn’t taken down a minimum of four times. While his 17-game pace of 87 sacks would still be an NFL record, the 2022 fifth-round pick is also pacing for 4,560 yards and 28 TDs through the air. Not too shabby!
   
• Scoring opportunities haven’t exactly been plentiful inside this Buccaneers offense, but RB Rachaad White has posted 7-70-0 and 6-65-0 receiving lines over the past two weeks on his way to posting PPR RB12 and RB10 finishes. The second-year talent has posted legit RB1 level utilization since the team’s Week 5 bye:

• It might not be overly pretty, but White continues to profile as a volume-based RB2 who should continue to be started in far more fantasy lineups than not.
   
• Seahawks rookie RB Zach Charbonnet really cut into Kenneth Walker’s workload last week. While Walker didn’t practice due to a calf injury in Week 8, he didn’t have an official injury designation. Head coach Pete Caroll heaped praise on the rookie in front of the media — which isn’t exactly unusual from Pete — but it does match this change in utilization. Don’t bump Walker too far down the ranks; more than anything this is a friendly reminder that Charb’s ceiling is the roof should the Seahawks be forced to operate without their starting RB for any period.
   
• Breece Hall is really, really, really good at football.

• In Week 8 Miles Sanders worked behind Chuba Hubbard AND Raheem Blackshear. It’s tough to argue with Frank Reich’s decision: Sanders has arguably been the NFL’s single-worst RB when looking at success rate and EPA per rush. Let this serve as another reminder that the grass isn’t always greener on the other side when RBs sign big-money deals in free agency.
   
• Bills WR Khalil Shakir enjoyed his best game as a professional last Thursday night, catching all six of his targets for 92 scoreless yards while running a route on a season-high 72% of Josh Allen’s dropback. It’s not a coincidence this came in a game with both Dawson Knox (wrist, IR) and Quintin Morris (ankle) sidelined — Shakir is a sneaky solid FLEX option for however long the Bills remain without enough bodies to run more two-TE personnel.
   
• Panthers WR Adam Thielen has an NFL-high 57 receptions without a charged drop this season (PFF). Not too shabby!
   
• A few years ago I came up with a metric called “Entertainment Factor” to help quantify how much fun it was to watch Jameis Winston rack up big-time throws and turnover-worthy plays alike week after week. The leaderboard in combined big-time throw rate and turnover-worthy play rate through eight weeks among 35 QBs with at least 100 dropbacks:
  1. Brock Purdy (5.8% BTT rate ranks 4th, 5.2% TWP rate ranks 31st)
  2. P.J. Walker (2.9% BTT ranks 26th, 7.7% TWP rate ranks 35th)
  3. Tua Tagovailoa (6.6% BTT ranks 2nd, 2.9% TWP rate ranks 16th)
      
• And finally, the 2023 team defenses leaders in “Havoc Rate” which takes the sum of a defense’s tackles for a loss or no gain, forced fumbles, interceptions, pass deflections and pressures divided by total plays. Basically: Which defenses cause negative plays most often:
  1. Browns (62.2%)
  2. Cowboys (61.8%)
  3. Bills (58.6%)
  4. Lions (57.5%)
  5. Eagles (57.5%)

You can check out a full list of the league’s leaders in havoc rate right here.

Best of luck in Week 9 and beyond!