Freedman's Favorites. The Best Fantasy Football Plays For The Conference Championships.
Matthew Freedman goes position by position and highlights his favorite Fantasy Football plays for the Conference Championships, including Brock Purdy, Rashee Rice and more.
Three games.
That’s all that remains of the NFL season.
Two games this Sunday, and then the Super Bowl.
Let’s cherish these conference championships, for next week, we’ll have no games at all.
“Time’s winged chariot hurrying near.”
Freedman’s Favorites for the Conference Championships
Here are my preliminary AFC & NFC Championship favorites. These are the guys who (in some combination) …
- Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
- Possess underappreciated upside.
- Have advantageous matchups.
- Appear in my DFS player pool.
- Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
- Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
- Catch my eye with their player projections.
- Stand out in our player prop tool.
Some notes.
- Updates: After I submit this piece (on Tuesday morning), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.
- Ranking Accuracy: I didn’t have a great year in the FantasyPros accuracy contest but stormed back in the final weeks to finish No. 18. That gives me six top-20 seasons in total. Not terrible.
- Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.
- Abbreviations: Check out the end of the piece for abbreviations I might use. (I don’t want to clutter up the intro by listing them all here.)
- Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of 1 am ET on Tuesday, Jan. 23, and based on the official Unabated Lines (the best representation of a market-making sportsbook consensus).
Freedman’s Favorite Conference Championship QB
Brock Purdy (49ers) vs. Lions
- 49ers: -6.5
- O/U: 51
- TT: 28.75 (No. 1)
Purdy is not an elite QB. Even with his fourth-quarter comeback drive, he had a subpar performance last week (7.0 AY/A), and this week, I tentatively expect him to be without WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder).
Much has been made of how Purdy has played in the four games Samuel has missed or exited early with injury this year.
- At Browns (Week 6): 125 yards, one TD | one INT | 3.7 AY/A | 19-17 loss
- At Vikings (Week 7): 272 yards, one TD | two INTs | 6.7 AY/A | 22-17 loss
- Bengals (Week 8): 365 yards, one TD | two INT | 9.5 AY/A | 31-17 loss
- Packers (Divisional Round): 252 yards, one TD | zero INTs | 7.0 AY/A | 24-21 win
Numbers aren’t everything — Purdy looked worse than his final stats last week — but each performance can be meaningfully contextualized.
Dec 31, 2023; Landover, Maryland, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) on the field before the game against the Washington Commanders at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Against the Browns, Purdy was on the road and dealing with significant rain, 15-mph wind, and the league’s best defense (-0.138 EPA, No. 1 per RBs Don’t Matter).
Against the Vikings, Purdy was on the road for a second straight game and facing a blitz-happy defense without first-team All-Pro LT Trent Williams.
Against the Bengals, Purdy was once again without Williams, but he was still prolific (365 yards) and efficient (9.5 AY/A). The 49ers lost, and Purdy threw two INTs, but that wasn’t a terrible performance.
Against the Packers, Purdy again battled the elements, primarily a steadfast rain and a little wind (eight mph).
I think Purdy’s poor numbers without Samuel have little to do with Samuel and more to do with other circumstances that won’t apply this weekend: He’s at home for the second week in a row. The 49ers have had just one road game since Christmas. Purdy has an extra day of rest. Williams is healthy. And Levi’s Stadium has a windless and sunny forecast that projects a Jan. 28th all-time record high of 70 degrees.
Even without Samuel, Purdy seems unlikely to repeat last week’s performance.
For all his limitations, Purdy was still No. 1 in AY/A (9.9), composite EPA + CPOE (0.204), and QBR (72.7, per ESPN).
He’s good enough to exploit a favorable matchup, and that’s what he has against the Lions, who in the regular season were No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.4 FPPG) and have allowed Matthew Stafford (367 yards, two TDs) and Baker Mayfield (349 yards, three TDs, two INTs) to go off in the playoffs.
Freedman’s Favorite Conference Championship RBs
Jahmyr Gibbs (Lions) at 49ers
- Lions: +6.5
- O/U: 51
- TT: 22.25 (No. 3)
Despite being the more explosive player, Gibbs is still splitting work with veteran RB David Montgomery, whom he played behind in the Divisional Round (per our Fantasy Life Utilization Report).
- David Montgomery: 55% snap rate | 40% rush rate | 50% route rate | 10% target rate
- Jahmyr Gibbs: 37% snap rate | 36% rush rate | 33% route rate | 10% target rate
Even so, the rookie Gibbs has 879 yards and 11 TDs on 123 carries and 46 targets in 11 games since Montgomery returned in Week 10. In every game since the Week 9 bye, Gibbs has had 10-plus opportunities, and he’s had fewer than 12 in just one.
As road underdogs, the Lions could lean more on Gibbs’ three-down skill set than they usually do: In the team’s five losses, he has displayed favorable opportunity splits (per game).
- Losses (five): 11 carries | 6.8 targets
- Wins (10): 12.7 carries | 3.8 targets
The 49ers are No. 27 in defensive rush SR (41.9%) and allowed 116 yards on 18 carries and six targets to Aaron Jones last week.
Gus Edwards (Ravens) vs. Chiefs
- Ravens: -3.5
- O/U: 44
- TT: 23.75 (No. 2)
Edwards underwhelmed last week (39 scoreless yards on 10 carries, two targets). But he had a tough matchup against the Texans (33.6% rush SR, No. 1), and this week, he gets a much gentler opponent in the Chiefs. They’re No. 28 in defensive rush EPA (-0.031) and could be without key run defenders in DT Derrick Nnadi (elbow) and LB Willie Gay (neck).
Despite not scoring a touchdown last week, Edwards earned 100% of the team’s carries inside the five-yard line, and in the regular season, he was No. 1 in the league with 19 goal-line carries. Outside of Christian McCaffrey, Edwards might be the RB with the best chance of scoring a TD in the conference championships.
Dec 25, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back Gus Edwards (35) runs the ball against the San Francisco 49ers in the third quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports
Given that the Chiefs allowed 182 yards rushing last week to the Bills, I expect the Ravens to rely on the running game consistently as home favorites, giving Edwards an excellent chance to get 10-15 opportunities, especially with an extra day of rest between games.
Setting aside the season’s inconsequential final week, Edwards has 678 yards and seven TDs on 132 carries and 10 targets in his 10 games without competition for carries from RBs J.K. Dobbins (Achilles, IR) and Keaton Mitchell (knee, IR).
That’s not elite, but it gives Edwards a good chance to get 50-ish yards and a score, which gets the job done.
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Freedman’s Favorite Conference Championship WRs
Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) at 49ers
- Lions: +6.5
- O/U: 51
- TT: 22.25 (No. 3)
I doubt much needs to be said about St. Brown.
He plays all over the formation, so he’s unlikely to be shadowed by second-team All-Pro CB Charvarius Ward (who plays almost exclusively on the left perimeter). St. Brown lines up most in the slot, where I like his matchup with CB Deommodore Lenoir, who has seen the best slot receivers he has faced — Christian Kirk (6-104-0 receiving, 11 targets) and Zay Flowers (9-72-1, 13 targets) — go off with big performances since he shifted from the perimeter to the interior in Week 10.
In the regular season, St. Brown dominated with 1,539 yards from scrimmage and 10 TDs on 164 targets and four carries, and over the past two weeks, he has 15-187-1 receiving on 23 targets.
Matthew Berry’s 2023 Ride or Die, St. Brown is inevitable. (Most of the time.)
Brandon Aiyuk (49ers) vs. Lions
- 49ers: -6.5
- O/U: 51
- TT: 28.75 (No. 1)
Although the 49ers consider WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder) a coinflip to play this weekend (per ESPN’s Adam Schefter), his injury history leads me to believe he’s likely to sit.
And that means Aiyuk could have an expanded role this week against the Lions, who are No. 27 in defensive dropback EPA (0.099).
Aiyuk came into his own last year with 78-1,015-8 receiving, and then he had an even more impressive campaign this season with 1,342 yards receiving and 12.8 yards per target in 16 games.
With Samuel leaving last week’s game after just nine snaps, Aiyuk had a 100% route rate.
Rashee Rice (Chiefs) at Ravens
- Chiefs: +3.5
- O/U: 44
- TT: 20.25 (No. 4)
In the aftermath of the team’s aerially deficient 21-17 loss to the Eagles in Week 11, Rice has been the No. 1 WR for the Chiefs with an 80% route rate, 27% target rate, and 27% target share.
With that usage, he has racked up 55-695-4 receiving on 72 targets over the past eight games.
Jan 13, 2024; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) celebrates with wide receiver Rashee Rice (4) during the first half of a 2024 AFC wild card game against the Miami Dolphins at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
While the Ravens this year have frequently used do-it-all first-team All-Pro SS Kyle Hamilton as their primary slot defender, I think there’s a good chance they’ll use him extensively on TE Travis Kelce. That would leave Rice to run most of his slot routes against journeyman CB Arthur Maulet, who has allowed 8.6 yards per target for his career (per PFF).
Plus, the Ravens could again be without No. 1 CB Marlon Humphrey (calf), who exited Week 17 early with an injury and hasn’t practiced or played since.
Jameson Williams (Lions) at 49ers
- Lions: +6.5
- O/U: 51
- TT: 22.25 (No. 3)
This one is based more on my gut than on numbers, but there are stats to back this up.
The Lions are sizable road underdogs: I think they’ll need to throw a lot to keep pace with the 49ers.
Rotational WR Kalif Raymond (knee) exited Week 18 early with an injury and has missed the past two weeks. In his absence, Williams is probably the team’s best deep threat and most explosive receiver: Since the Week 9 bye, he has averaged 10.2 yards per target and 9.7 yards per carry.
I think the Lions will scheme up specific plays for him in an attempt to hit home runs: The No. 12 pick in the 2022 draft, Williams was selected for high-leverage spots like this. If the team doesn’t try to get him designed touches, that will be telling.
Although he moves across the formation, Williams lines up most wide to the left, which means RCB Ambry Thomas will likely be his primary defender. For his career, Thomas has allowed 8.4 yards per target and a 71.0% completion rate, and just last week, he yielded 5-74-0 receiving on five targets in his coverage.
Jauan Jennings (49ers) vs. Lions
- 49ers: -6.5
- O/U: 51
- TT: 28.75 (No. 1)
With WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder) on the sideline last week, Jennings functioned as the No. 2 WR in the offense, and he had usage fairly similar to that of Aiyuk.
- Brandon Aiyuk: 100% route rate | 14% target rate | 17% target share | 24% air share
- Jauan Jennings: 72% route rate | 19% target rate | 17% target share | 23% air share
On his six targets, Jennings had a viable 5-61-0 receiving. He’ll be serviceable if he has similar usage against the Lions, who are No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (33.2).
Freedman’s Favorite Conference Championship TEs
George Kittle (49ers) vs. Lions
- 49ers: -6.5
- O/U: 51
- TT: 28.75 (No. 1)
Kittle earned his second first-team All-Pro recognition this season and achieved his third 1,000-yard campaign. He’s a baller with a Hall-of-Fame shot.
In his two full games this year without WR Deebo Samuel (shoulder), Kittle had 14-227-0 receiving on 18 targets (Weeks 7-8), and he had 4-81-1 on seven targets last week.
Last year, he had 17-275-6 receiving on 26 targets in his four games without Samuel.
The Lions are No. 7 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (10.1).
Sam LaPorta (Lions) at 49ers
- Lions: +6.5
- O/U: 51
- TT: 22.25 (No. 3)
In his eight full games after the Week 9 bye, LaPorta put up 38-426-5 receiving with two 2-point conversions on 54 targets, culminating in Week 17 with 7-84-0 receiving on 12 targets and a 100% snap rate in a pivotal matchup with the Cowboys.
LaPorta exited Week 18 early with a knee injury and played as a glorified decoy on Super Wild Card Weekend, but last week, he returned to form with 9-65-0 receiving on 11 targets.
Ever since the 49ers lost SS Talanoa Hufanga (knee, IR) in Week 11, they’ve allowed good performances to comparable TEs Trey McBride (10-102-0 receiving, 11 targets) and Isaiah Likely (3-56-0, four targets).
Abbreviations
- Fantasy Points per Game (FPPG)
- Against the Spread (ATS)
- Over/Under (O/U)
- Team Total (TT)
- Moneyline (ML)
- Return on Investment (ROI)
- Adjusted Yards per Attempt (AY/A)
- Expected Points Added (EPA)
- Success Rate (SR)
- Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
- Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA)
- AirYAC (Air Yards + Yards After Catch)
- Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
- Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
