Freedman's Favorites. The Best Week 1 Fantasy Football Plays.

This season will be my eighth writing some version of this piece.

Originally, this was an in-depth breakdown of as many fantasy-relevant players as I could cover, published in four separate weekly posts (one for each skill-position group) focused mainly on daily fantasy.

But over the years, I have consolidated all my analysis into one piece, broadened the scope so that it’s applicable to all types of fantasy formats, and narrowed my focus to the players I’m high on.

With this approach, my hope is that you get 80% of the actionable value that you would’ve gotten in previous seasons with only 20% of the time investment. That feels like a win for both of us.

And hopefully, if you read this piece regularly, there will be lots of winning for you in the 2023 season.

Freedman’s Favorites for Week 1

The premise of this piece is uncomplicated: “Here are players I like this week.” Straightforward. Streamlined. Sophisticated in its simplicity.

And yet still in need of some explanation.

When I say, “I like this guy this week,” what does that mean?

It depends. For different players, the takeaway is different, and sometimes — I guess all the time — it will be up to you to decide precisely how to act upon the information I provide and the fundamental knowledge that “this guy is one of Freedman’s favorites.”

But, generally speaking, I will highlight players in this piece who …

Might be high in my fantasy rankings relative to the industry consensus.
Need to be started in most season-long leagues.
Must be added if they are on waivers.
Possess underappreciated upside.
Have advantageous matchups.
Appear in my DFS player pool.
Make for desirable dynasty acquisition targets.
Are on teams with player-friendly betting odds.
Catch my eye with their player projections.
Stand out in our player prop tool.

Not every guy I mention will check all these boxes. But all of them are likely to fit some combination of those criteria.

So when a guy appears in this piece — when I say that he’s one of my favorites for the week — that’s what it means.

Here are some notes.

Updates: After I submit this piece (usually on Wednesday morning but sometimes earlier), I won’t make any updates here. Rather, any changing opinions I have will be reflected in my rankings and my projections, which I will periodically update throughout the week.

Scoring & Ordering: All fantasy points are half-PPR scoring unless otherwise stated. Players are ordered within position roughly (but probably not precisely) according to my rankings as of writing.

Abbreviations:

Fantasy points per game (FPPG)
against the spread (ATS)
over/under (O/U), moneyline (ML)
Return on investment (ROI)
adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A)
expected points added (EPA)
success rate (SR)
completion percentage over expectation (CPOE)
defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA)
AirYAC (air yards and yards after catch)
Weighted opportunity rating (WOPR)

Sports Betting Data: Odds are as of Wednesday, Sep. 6, and from our Fantasy Life Game Hub.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 1 QBs

Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs) vs. Lions

Chiefs: -4.5 (-110, BetMGM)
O/U: 52.5
Team Total: 30.5

I like Mahomes. Real original, right? But sometimes, the obvious needs to be emphasized.

In an era with great fantasy QBs, Mahomes is still the best. Since his first year as a starter (2018), Mahomes is No. 1 in FPPG (26.9), AY/A (8.7) and composite EPA + CPOE (0.175, per RBs Don’t Matter). In his five seasons as a starter, he has five Pro Bowls, two MVPs, and two Super Bowls. He could retire today and still make the Hall of Fame.

Last year he led the league with 5,250 yards and 41 TDs passing — not to mention 123 red zone pass attempts — and he has lowkey high-floor rushing ability (20-plus rushing yards per game in each of the past three years).

He was a QB1 last year in all but two games (per RotoViz). The Chiefs have the highest implied team total on the slate (30.25 points) and in 2022, they were No. 1 in the league in dropback over expectation (9.04%). The Lions were No. 1 last year in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (19.1 FPPG, per our Defense vs. Position page).

I have a bet on Mahomes to win Offensive Player of the Year at +3000 (DraftKings) in our 100% FREE bet tracker.

Justin Herbert (Chargers) vs. Dolphins

Chargers: -3
O/U: 51
Team Total: 27

In 2020, Herbert had maybe the best passing campaign ever for a first-year QB (4,336 yards, 31 TDs) on his way to winning Offensive Rookie of the Year, and in 2021-22, he was No. 3 with 9,753 yards passing.

Pro Bowl LT Rashawn Slater will return to stabilize the offensive line after missing most of last year with a biceps injury, and the offense could be more explosive with the additions of proven OC Kellen Moore and first-round WR Quentin Johnston.

The Dolphins were No. 2 last year in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (17.2) and are without No. 1 CB Jalen Ramsey (knee).

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Anthony Richardson (Colts) vs. Jaguars

Colts: +4.5
O/U: 45
Team Total: 20.25

Richardson — the No. 4 pick in the draft — has a relatively soft matchup for his NFL debut, going against a Jaguars defense that was No. 30 last year in pass DVOA (19.7%, per FTN).

He started just one year in college, and he had an uneven campaign (53.8% completion rate, 7.6 AY/A), but he flashed his strong arm and dual-threat ability (103-654-9 rushing, including sacks).

Without RB Jonathan Taylor (ankle/back, PUP), the Colts might give Richardson extra designed runs this week

At just 21 years old and one of the most athletic QB prospects the NFL has ever seen (4.43-second 40-yard dash at 6'4", 244 pounds), Richardson will likely be volatile throughout his rookie season, but he has the upside to develop into a Josh Allen-esque producer.

Jared Goff (Lions) at Chiefs

Lions: +4.5
O/U: 52.5
Team Total: 23.75

Goff is a nonentity as a runner, but he compensated for it as a passer in 2022 with efficiency (8.0 AY/A, No. 4) and volume (34.5 attempts per game, No. 6).

Despite being selected No. 1 overall in the 2016 draft, and despite making three Pro Bowls (including last year), Goff is a talent-limited player, but OC Ben Johnson maximizes his potential through intelligent play design and sequencing: For example, Goff had a league-high 1,445 yards passing on play action last year.

He could have a big game in a shootout with the Chiefs, who were No. 5 last year in most fantasy points allowed to QBs (16.4 FPPG), and the Lions are 20-9 ATS (32.1% ROI) under HC Dan Campbell (per Action Network).

Geno Smith (Seahawks) vs. Rams

Seahawks: -5.5
O/U: 46.5
Team Total: 26

Smith had a great campaign last year, throwing with accuracy (league-high 71.4% completion rate) and avoiding dangerous passes (league-low 11.6% bad throw rate) on his way to winning Comeback Player of the Year.

With a respectable rushing floor (21.5 yards per game in 2022), proven WRs (D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett), and an up-and-coming OC/play-caller (Shane Waldron), he should be able to exploit a soft matchup against the Rams, who have the No. 32 secondary in our unit rankings.

Against the Rams last year, Smith had a 67.1% completion rate for 580 yards and four TDs passing (with three INTs) and 6-54-0 rushing. Under HC Pete Carroll, the Seahawks at home are 78-34 ML (13.7% ROI) and 62-47-3 ATS (10.7% ROI).

Russell Wilson (Broncos) vs. Raiders

Broncos: -3.5
O/U: 44
Team Total: 24

Wilson in 2022 had career-worst marks with a 60.5% completion rate, 6.9 AY/A, 36.7 QBR, and league-high 55 sacks, and this week he’ll be without WRs Jerry Jeudy (hamstring), Tim Patrick (Achilles, IR), and K.J. Hamler (heart, released).

That said, new HC Sean Payton as a QB whisperer could revitalize Wilson, who did well (26.9 FPPG, albeit in only two games) after the team fired former HC Nathaniel Hackett in Week 17.

Last year the Raiders were No. 31 in both defensive dropback EPA (0.150) and pass DVOA (21.4%) and allowed Wilson a splits-positive 18.8 FPPG (vs. 14.9 FPPG for all other opponents). If Wilson underperforms in this matchup, there’s almost no chance I’ll feature him in this piece again for the rest of his career.

Jordan Love (Packers) at Bears

Packers: +1
O/U: 43
Team Total: 21.25

Love has only one NFL start to his name, but he’s a first-rounder who has spent the past three years in HC/play-caller Matt LaFleur’s system, learning as much as he can from future Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers.

He was raw in his one start against the Chiefs in 2021 (55.9% completion rate, 4.9 AY/A), but in his four brief relief appearances last year, he flashed real upside (66.7%, 10.2 AY/A). The Bears last year were No. 32 in defensive dropback EPA (0.212).

Sam Howell (Commanders) vs. Cardinals

Commanders: -7
O/U: 38
Team Total: 22.75

Howell — as a second-year fifth-rounder — could be bad, but last year he was No. 1 in the league with 0.77 fantasy points per dropback (albeit in just one game, a Week 18 start). A moxie-filled dual-threat three-year starter in college, he might be one of the rare late-round QBs who carves out a decent NFL career.

Last preseason, he completed 62.3% of his passes for 547 yards and one TD (to one INT) and flashed 13-94-2 rushing. This preseason, he bumped his completion rate up to 75.7% and converted 37 attempts into 265 yards and three TDs with no turnovers.

Granted, that’s the preseason, but the Cardinals are essentially an exhibition team: They ranked No. 31 in defensive pass SR (51.2%) last season.

Freedman’s Favorite Week 1 RBs

Bijan Robinson (Falcons) vs. Panthers

Falcons: -3.5
O/U: 39.5
Team Total: 21.75

Robinson is a 21-year-old five-star All-American Doak Walker Award-winning No. 8 overall rookie with a good athletic profile (4.46-second 40-yard dash at 5-11 and 215 pounds) and elite production (1,894 yards, 20 TDs in 12 games in 2022).

With a three-down skill set (60-805-8 receiving in college), he is the top RB prospect to enter the league since Saquon Barkley (2018, No. 2) — and he’s probably a more consistent down-to-down runner than Barkley.

In an offense that last year was top-five in rush EPA (0.004), rush SR (45.1%), rush DVOA (8.1%), and Y/A (4.9), Robinson should have the opportunity to dominate, especially as a home favorite.

Tony Pollard (Cowboys) at Giants

Cowboys: -3
O/U: 46.5
Team Total: 25

Pollard has put up 2,434 yards from scrimmage over the past two years as a No. 2 RB, and now he gets the chance to lead the Cowboys backfield without former No. 1 RB Ezekiel Elliott, without whom Pollard has racked up 407 yards and six touchdowns on 48 carries and 16 targets in three starts.

Last year the Giants were No. 32 in defensive rush DVOA (12.1%), and the Cowboys are 27-7 ML (32.3% ROI) and 24-10 ATS (27.7% ROI) in division with QB Dak Prescott.

Saquon Barkley (Giants) vs. Cowboys

Giants: +3.5
O/U: 46.5
Team Total: 21.5

Barkley had a triumphant 1,650-yard, 10-touchdown return to form last year as the engine of a Giants offense that could be better in HC Brian Daboll’s second season with the team.

The Cowboys have a great defense — but they also did last year when Barkley had 16.9 FPPG (vs. 15.7 for all other opponents). Despite sitting out Week 18, he had a position-high 856 snaps in 2022.

Derrick Henry (Titans) at Saints

Titans: +3
O/U: 41.5
Team Total: 19

Henry is a mythological creature who should probably be featured in this article every week until he retires. Since his earth-shaking Week 14 breakout in 2018, he has averaged 127.5 yards and 1.1 TDs on 22.6 carries and 2.0 targets across 59 games.

He’s 29 years old and destined to slow down eventually, but in 2022 he had a league-high 349 carries and a career-high 41 targets.

Last year the Saints had a below-average run defense — No. 19 in rush EPA (-0.061) and No. 21 in rush SR (42.0%) — and they lost DTs David Onyemata, Shy Tuttle, and Kentavius Street this offseason.

Aaron Jones (Packers) at Bears

Packers: +1
O/U: 43
Team Total: 21.25

Jones has dominated the Packers backfield for the past decade with 6,657 yards and 56 touchdowns from scrimmage. Even at 28 years old, he’s still efficient as a runner (5.3 yards per carry last year) and capable enough as a receiver (5.5 yards per target).

Last year, he put up 220 yards and two TDs on 24 carries and eight targets against the Bears, who were No. 30 in defensive rush DVOA (9.5%).

Joe Mixon (Bengals) at Browns

Bengals: -2.5
O/U: 47.5
Team Total: 25.0

Mixon has averaged 94.5 yards and 0.7 TDs per game over the past half-decade and 92.8 yards and 0.81 TDs per game over the past three years with QB Joe Burrow.

With the departure of No. 2 RB Samaje Perine this offseason, Mixon could see more overall usage this year, and the Browns in 2022 were No. 32 in defensive rush EPA (0.045).

J.K. Dobbins (Ravens) vs. Texans

Ravens: -10
O/U: 43.5
Team Total: 27

Dobbins — now another year removed from the ACL injury that sidelined him for all of 2021 — should have less of a “hitch in his giddyup” (that’s a technical term) this year than he did last year, when at times, he looked like a low-upside plodder.

But even then, he averaged 5.7 yards per carry and had 100% of the carries inside the five-yard line in the games he played. The Texans last year were No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (25.7 FPPG).

Cam Akers (Rams) at Seahawks

Rams: +5.5
O/U: 46
Team Total: 20.5

Akers was sluggish at the end of 2021 as he returned from an Achilles tear, and for the first half of 2022, he saw minimal action and openly feuded with the team — but from Week 12 on, he started every game and was the focal point of the offense with 648 yards and six TDs on an efficient 4.9 yards per carry and 8.3 yards per target in seven games.

Because of the team’s heavy use of three-WR sets and HC Sean McVay’s intelligent play designs, Akers saw the second-lowest rate eight-man boxes (10.1%, per Next Gen Stats), and I’d expect him to see comparably light fronts this year.

In his three career games against the Seahawks as the team’s lead back (including playoffs), Akers has put up 364 yards and three TDs on 66 carries and six targets.

Alexander Mattison (Vikings) vs. Buccaneers

Vikings: -6
O/U: 45.5
Team Total: 25.75

Mattison has amassed 693 yards and five TDs on 19.5 carries and 4.5 targets per game in his six contests without former No. 1 RB Dalvin Cook, whom the team released this offseason. Still just 25 years old, Mattison is in his prime, and last year was No. 4 with 31% missed tackles forced per attempt.

He has a tough matchup against the Buccaneers, but his two-year contract (almost fully guaranteed) suggests that he’ll inherit as much of Cook’s 2022 workload as he can handle, including Cook’s top-five mark of 15 carries inside the five-yard line.

Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) vs. Lions

Chiefs: -4.5
O/U: 52.5
Team Total: 30.25

Pacheco broke out last year as an early-down Day 3 rookie, ranking as the No. 3 RB with a 57.1% rushing success rate and flashing with 4.9 yards per carry.

He’s underutilized as a receiver (14 targets in 17 games), but that might not matter in Week 1 when he could benefit from a run-leaning game script as a sizable home favorite.

Last year the Lions were No. 28 in defensive rush SR (44.8%).

Khalil Herbert (Bears) vs. Packers

Bears: -1
O/U: 43.5
Team Total: 22.25

Herbert flashed as a backup and change-of-pace option over the past two years with 1,317 yards and seven TDs, and now he gets the opportunity to start following the offseason departure of former No. 1 RB David Montgomery.

Last year Herbert was No. 1 in rushing yards over expected per attempt (1.29) and No. 2 in yards after contact per carry (2.5) among RBs with 100-plus carries.

The Packers in 2022 were No. 31 in defensive rush EPA (0.044), SR (46.6%), and DVOA (10.6%), and not much has changed in their defense from last year to this year.

Samaje Perine (Broncos) vs. Raiders

Broncos: -4
O/U: 44
Team Total: 24

Perine has established himself as a premium No. 2 back over the past three years with 213-941-6 rushing (4.4 yards per carry) and 76-549-5 receiving (5.8 yards per target).

He’s likely to see significant usage given that lead RB Javonte Williams (knee) is returning from a significant injury, HC Sean Payton tends to deploy split backfields, and the Broncos are home favorites of more than a field goal.

Last year the Raiders were No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to RBs (19.7 FPPG).

Raheem Mostert (Dolphins) at Chargers

Dolphins: +3
O/U: 51
Team Total: 24

Mostert is 31 years old and unlikely to stay healthy for the entire campaign — but he’s healthy this week, and No. 2 RB Jeff Wilson (midsection/finder, IR) isn’t, so Mostert could see an expanded workload, especially since he should be fresh at the beginning of the season.

With 5.4 yards per carry for his career, he’s a playmaking back who can still produce (1,093 yards from scrimmage last year).

The Chargers in 2022 were No. 29 in defensive rush EPA (0.038), SR (44.8%), and DVOA (6.68%), and the Dolphins are 8-8 ML (29.8% ROI) and 10-5-1 ATS (25.9% ROI) as underdogs with QB Tua Tagovailoa.

Jan 8, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Miami Dolphins running back Raheem Mostert (31) runs the ball against the New York Jets during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

Freedman’s Favorite Week 1 WRs

Ja’Marr Chase (Bengals) at Browns

Bengals: -2.5
O/U: 48
Team Total: 25.25

Chase already has 2,501 yards receiving through two seasons despite missing five games last year.

He’s just one of three WRs in NFL history to hit the 2,500-yard mark before turning 23 years old: The other two are Justin Jefferson and Randy Moss. Burrow (calf) seems likely to return to action for Week 1 following his preseason injury, and Chase had 125 yards and a TD on 15 targets, 10 receptions, and one carry in his one game against the Browns last year.

Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions) at Chiefs

Lions: +4.5
O/U: 52.5
Team Total: 23.75

St. Brown has 146-1,626-11 receiving on 197 targets and 16-156-1 rushing in 19 games since his Week 12 breakout in 2021 (minus three consecutive injury-impacted games in 2022).

With his inside/outside versatility, St. Brown is hard for any team to scheme away, and the Chiefs were No. 1 last year in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (26.1 FPPG).

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Chris Olave (Saints) vs. Titans

Saints: -3
O/U: 41.5
Team Total: 22.5

Olave flashed last year as a rookie with 1,042 yards receiving and 8.8 yards per target, and the Titans were No. 28 in defensive dropback EPA (0.114) and pass DVOA (16.3%).

Lining up primarily in the slot, he will likely play most against CB Roger McCreary, who allowed a not-so-nice (for him) 69.2% catch rate in 2022 as a first-year starter.

D.K. Metcalf (Seahawks) vs. Rams

Seahawks: -5.5
O/U: 46
Team Total: 25.5

Metcalf is an alpha beast with Calvin Johnson-like athleticism (4.33-second 40-yard dash at 6-3 and 228 pounds) and 306-4,218-35 receiving in his first four seasons with the Seahawks. In his five most recent games against the division rival Rams, he has 27-413-5 receiving on 44 targets.

Without All-Pro CB Jalen Ramsey (traded this offseason), the Rams don’t have a perimeter cover man capable of outmuscling Metcalf, who was No. 1 in the league last year with a 40% red zone target share.

Tyler Lockett (Seahawks) vs. Rams

Seahawks: -5.5
O/U: 46
Team Total: 25.5

Lockett is an always-underrated producer with 5,284 yards and 45 TDs receiving over the past half-decade. Last year he had 13-182-2 receiving on 19 targets against the Rams, who were No. 28 in defensive dropback SR (49.3%).

Lockett has elite inside/outside versatility and could see extra targets without first-round rookie WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba (wrist), whom I think is likely to miss Week 1.

Calvin Ridley (Jaguars) at Colts

Jaguars: -4.5
O/U: 45
Team Total: 24.75

Ridley missed all of 2022 (suspension) and most of 2021 (mental health break), but in 2020 — while playing on a broken foot — he had 90-1,374-9 receiving on 143 targets in 15 games for the Falcons.

Now on the Jaguars, he seems to be in a good head space and back to his prior self: In the preseason, he turned 16 routes into five targets and 5-71-0 receiving.

The Colts secondary could struggle without CBs Stephon Gilmore, Isaiah Rodgers, and Brandon Facyson and SS Rodney McLeod, all of whom the team lost this offseason.

Christian Watson (Packers) at Bears

Packers: +1
O/U: 43
Team Total: 21

Watson had an ignominious NFL debut last year when he dropped what would’ve been a 75-yard TD on the team’s first offensive snap, and he paid the price for it with just 13 more targets for the next two months, but for the final eight weeks of the season, he emerged as a big-time playmaker with 31-523-7 receiving (10.1 yards per target) and 4-61-1 rushing.

The Bears were No. 32 last year in defensive pass DVOA (26.3%).

Drake London (Falcons) vs. Panthers

Falcons: -3.5
O/U: 39.5
Team Total: 21.5

London was respectable last year as a rookie with 72-866-4 receiving on 117 targets, finishing the season as the No. 14 WR with 2.07 yards per route.

He’s limited within an offense likely to rely on the running game, but the Panthers last year were No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (24.1 FPPG).

D.J. Moore (Bears) vs. Packers

Bears: -1
O/U: 43
Team Total: 22

Moore is likely to be inconsistent in his first season with the Bears, but he was productive (5,201 yards receiving, 335 yards rushing) and efficient (8.4 yards per target, 8.6 yards per carry) with the Panthers for the first half-decade of his career despite dealing with subpar QB play.

Last year he was No. 1 with a 33.1% target share, 53.4% air yard share, and 86.9% WOPR, and he looked good in the preseason with 2-102-1 receiving on three targets and nine routes.

Jahan Dotson (Commanders) vs. Cardinals

Commanders: -7
O/U: 38
Team Total: 22.5

Dotson impressed as a rookie last year with 35-523-7 receiving (8.6 yards per target) despite missing five games and dealing with a hamstring injury throughout the season.

He could see extra opportunities with No. 1 WR Terry McLaurin (toe) uncertain to play, and I expect him to be matched up most with CB Kei'Trel Clark — a sixth-round rookie forced into extended action because of offseason departures and injuries.

Mike Evans (Buccaneers) at Vikings

Buccaneers: +6
O/U: 45.5
Team Total: 19.75

Evans is aging (30 years old) and suffered a severe QB downgrade this offseason (Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield), but he still has big-play ability (8.8 yards per target for his career, 8.9 last year) and is the only player in NFL history to open his career with nine 1,000-yard receiving seasons.

He could benefit from a pass-heavy game script as a sizable road underdog, and the Vikings might be vulnerable to explosive downfield plays early on, given that this offseason, they lost CBs Patrick Peterson, Chandon Sullivan, Cameron Dantzler, and Duke Shelley (their top four corners last year) and will likely play an aggressive and risk-seeking man coverage defense under new DC Brian Flores.

Courtland Sutton (Broncos) vs. Raiders

Broncos: -3.5
O/U: 44
Team Total: 23.5

Sutton was great for the Broncos in 2019 with 72-1,112-6 receiving, but he missed most of 2020 with a torn ACL and hasn’t had the same production (122-1,605-4 receiving in 2021-22) or playmaking ability (7.8 yards per target in 2021-22 vs. 8.8 in 2018-20) since returning from injury.

Still, he could see more volume without Jeudy (hamstring), and he was productive last year in two games against the Raiders (10-132-1 receiving, 9.4 yards per target).

Michael Pittman (Colts) vs. Jaguars

Colts: +5.0
O/U: 45
Team Total: 20

Pittman has 2,007 yards and 10 TDs receiving over the past two seasons despite poor QB play. He was No. 1 with a 99% route rate last year, and in his one game against the 2022 Jaguars, he went off for 13-134-0 receiving on 16 targets.

He’ll be a boom/bust producer this season, but this feels like an eruption-friendly matchup.

Brandin Cooks (Cowboys) at Giants

Cowboys: -3
O/U: 46.5
Team Total: 23.5

Cooks is still just 29 years old and has had 1,000 yards receiving in all six seasons in which he has played 15-plus games. Acquired via trade this offseason, Cooks has had success everywhere he has been (Saints, Patriots, Rams, Texans).

Although he can play in the slot, with the Cowboys, he’ll line up primarily on the perimeter, where he’ll face rookie CBs Deonte Banks and Tre Hawkins, both of whom are physical and athletic but perhaps lacking the finesse and technique to hang with a savvy veteran in their first NFL game.

Michael Thomas (Saints) vs. Titans

Saints: -3
O/U: 41.5
Team Total: 22

Thomas was dominant in his 2019 Offensive Player of the Year campaign with an NFL-record 149 receptions, but he has played just 12 games (including playoffs) since because of ankle and foot injuries.

Even so, he was productive in his two full games last year with 11-122-3 receiving on 17 targets (three within the 10-yard line), and he’s healthy right now (presumably). The Titans last year were No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (23.9 FPPG).

Adam Thielen (Panthers) at Falcons

Panthers: +3.5
O/U: 39.5
Team Total: 18

Thielen has seen his efficiency decline in each of the past five seasons (9.0 yards per target in 2018, 6.7 last year), and rookie QB Bryce Young could struggle with consistency early in his career, but Thielen looked good in the preseason (6-63-1 receiving on seven targets and 26 routes), and the Falcons last year were No. 29 in defensive dropback EPA (0.121) and pass DVOA (19.7%).

Playing in the slot, he’s likely to run most of his routes against CB Dee Alford, who was decent last year as an undrafted rookie rotational slot man (7.3 yards per target) but might be outclassed as he moves into the starting lineup.

Marvin Mims (Broncos) vs. Raiders

Broncos: -3.5
O/U: 44
Team Total: 24

Mims is a 21-year-old second-round rookie who put up 1,083 yards receiving as a true junior and a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the combine.

Without Jeudy, Patrick, and Hamler, Mims should see steady playing time right away. Mims has the ability to line up all over the formation, and the Raiders were No. 29 last year in defensive dropback SR (49.5%).

Marquez Valdes-Scantling (Chiefs) vs. Lions

Chiefs: -4.5
O/U: 52.5
Team Total: 30.25

Valdes-Scantling is an inconsistent producer, but he’s likely to lead a rebuilt Chiefs WR group in snaps, and he has a downfield playmaking skill set (8.7 yards per target for his career).

For MVS to hit, he pretty much needs a long TD — he has scored a TD in 20.5% of his games (including playoffs), and in those games, he has averaged 83.4 yards receiving — but the Lions feel like a team that could allow MVS to find the endzone on a long completion, especially since they could have four new starters in their secondary.

Last year, the Lions were No. 30 in defensive dropback EPA (0.125).

Jayden Reed (Packers) at Bears

Packers: +1
O/U: 43
Team Total: 21

Reed is a second-round rookie who led Western Michigan with 56-797-8 receiving as an 18-year-old true freshman before transferring to Michigan State, where he had 1,000-plus yards receiving and 13 all-purpose touchdowns as a junior.

He’s locked in as the team’s slot receiver, but he has inside/outside versatility and could overtake Romeo Doubs as the No. 2 WR sooner rather than later. The Bears were No. 32 last year in dropback pass SR (51.7%).

Jalin Hyatt (Giants) vs. Cowboys

Giants: +3
O/U: 46.5
Team Total: 21.5

Hyatt — a third-round rookie — is likely to be no more than a rotational receiver early in the year, but he has deep speed (4.40-second 40-yard dash) and was a four-star All-American Biletnikoff Award-winning dominator at Tennessee (67-1,267-15 receiving as a junior).

The Giants have played him mainly on the outside, where he’ll match up with CB Trevon Diggs, who is willing to gamble and give up big plays (9.2 yards per target) in order to get more turnovers (17 INTs).

Hyatt is the kind of receiver who could give Diggs trouble on double moves, and the Cowboys last year were No. 3 in most fantasy points allowed to WRs (24.6 FPPG).

Rashid Shaheed (Saints) vs. Titans

Saints: -3
O/U: 41.5
Team Total: 22

Shaheed balled out last year as an undrafted rookie with an electric 14.4 yards per target and 14.3 yards per carry, which he leveraged into 545 yards and three TDs from scrimmage.

He’s unpolished as a receiver and bound to regress, but his big-play ability is unquestioned: Last year, he was No. 2 with a 138.4 QB rating when targeted.

He could see exceptionally soft coverage playing alongside Olave and Thomas.

Dec 24, 2022; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed (89) runs with the ball after a catch during the first half against the Cleveland Browns at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Freedman’s Favorite Week 1 TEs

T.J. Hockenson (Vikings) vs. Buccaneers

Vikings: -6
O/U: 45.5
Team Total: 25.75

Hockenson just signed a four-year extension with the Vikings, who acquired him last year via an in-season trade. Miraculously, Hockenson (who had been dealing with an ear infection and back stiffness throughout the preseason) is feeling much better — about $68.5M better, to be precise.

In his 10 full games with the Vikings (including playoffs), he had 69-632-3 receiving on 96 targets. The Buccaneers last year were No. 4 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (9.8 FPPG).

David Njoku (Browns) vs. Bengals

Browns: +2.5
O/U: 47.5
Team Total: 22.75

Njoku has averaged 8.1 yards per target in his three seasons in HC Kevin Stefanski’s offense, and in his one game against the Bengals last year with QB Deshaun Watson, he had 7-59-1 receiving on nine targets.

The Bengals could be especially exploitable against tight ends early in the season without SS Vonn Bell and FS Jessie Bates, both of whom left via free agency.

Tyler Higbee (Rams) at Seahawks

Rams: +5.5
O/U: 46
Team Total: 20.5

Higbee has never lived up to the promise he exhibited at the end of 2019 (43-522-2 receiving on 56 targets in five games), but last year he had a career-high 108 targets and 72 receptions, and he could see extra targets with No. 1 WR Cooper Kupp (hamstring) uncertain/unlikely to play.

The Seahawks last year were No. 5 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (9.8 FPPG) and will be without SS Jamal Adams (quad).

Hayden Hurst (Panthers) at Falcons

Panthers: +3.5
O/U: 39.5
Team Total: 18.25

Hurst is nothing special, but neither is any other pass catcher on the Panthers, and he should at least be on the field regularly. The Falcons last year were No. 1 in most fantasy points allowed to TEs (11.6 FPPG).

Plus, this is a #RevengeGame: “How all occasions do inform against me and spur my dull revenge! Oh, from this time forth, my thoughts be bloody or be nothing worth!”

Noah Fant (Seahawks) vs. Rams

Seahawks: -5.5
O/U: 46.5
Team Total: 26

Fant was effective (7.7 yards per target) but underutilized (63 targets) last year in his first season with the Seahawks, but they parted ways with No. 3 WR Marquise Goodwin in the offseason, and with his replacement likely to miss Week 1, Fant could see extra opportunities against the Rams, who lost their primary TE defenders (LB Bobby Wagner, SS Taylor Rapp, and FS Nick Scott) this offseason.

Hunter Henry (Patriots) vs. Eagles

Patriots: +4
O/U: 45
Team Total: 20.75

Henry is supremely unsexy, but he has 91-1,112-11 receiving (8.3 yards per target) since joining the Patriots two years ago, and this could be his best season with the team given that QB Mac Jones is entering his third campaign and OC Bill O’Brien is bringing some normalcy to the offense.

The Eagles could be vulnerable against TEs early in the year without LBs Kyzir White and T.J. Edwards, SS C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and FS Marcus Epps.

Jake Ferguson (Cowboys) at Giants

Cowboys: -3
O/U: 46.5
Team Total: 23.5

Ferguson seems to have won the starting job as the replacement for Dalton Schultz, who put up 198-2,000-17 receiving on 282 targets for the Cowboys over the past three years.

Ferguson played sparsely but well last year as a rookie, ranking as the No. 8 TE with 1.66 yards per route.