New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers 

Halfway through the Giants Week 2 game against the Cardinals, and the lookahead line on this Week 3 matchup seemed like it might get to -14.0/+14.0. 

Then Daniel Jones (321-2-1, 59-1) went to work.

Jones threw for over 300 yards for the third time in his career with Brian Daboll as his head coach and made numerous timely runs that kept the Cardinals on their heels and unable to make a stop in the fourth quarter. 

Jones was able to connect on deep balls with Jalin Hyatt (2-89) on multiple occasions as the rookie turned a meager 6% target share in Week 2 into 2 receptions and 89 yards. It’s safe to say that this kind of production was exactly what the Giants expected when they drafted the former track star, and we’re likely to see an increase in his 21% snap rate from Week 2 soon.

Hyatt will face a 49ers secondary that tends to push more action to the outside and could have a solid advantage against bigger corners Charvarius Ward and Deommodore Lenoir—who got beaten to a pulp by Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell in Week 2. 

Jones was also great at getting Darren Waller (6-76) more involved last week. His target share bumped up to 21% against Arizona and he made numerous timely catches over the middle that helped extend the Giants' rally. The 49ers have traditionally been one of the toughest teams to pass against over the middle the past few seasons, and that doesn’t seem to have changed at all under new DC Steve Wilks, who limited Tyler Higbee to just a 3-12 line on seven targets. 

The dark cloud around the Giants' win was that late in the game they lost Saquon Barkley (ankle) to injury—who will miss Week 3 and likely be out at least 2-3 weeks. The Giants will rely on a Matt Breida/Gary Brightwell combination against the 49ers, which could mean another pass-heavy approach from New York. 

Another reason to expect more passing from New York is that their defense has been helpless for 6.5 of 8 quarters in 2023.

Allowing Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to run all over you is one thing, but ceding 7.4 yards per attempt and a 41-1 rushing line to Joshua Dobbs is worrisome, to say the least.  It’s hard to imagine Brock Purdy (206-0-0) not having a decent day in this spot, especially with the Giants having a league-low four pressures through the first two weeks. 

Sep 17, 2023; Inglewood, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws a pass in the first half against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

It’s not all rosy for the 49ers either.

Brandon Aiyuk (shoulder - questionable) missed practice on Monday, and it is plausible that the 49ers hold him out during a short week to ensure he’s ready for Week 4. Making that decision even easier is the matchup with the Giants, who allowed 5.2 yards per attempt and 106-1 line to James Conner.

Christian McCaffrey (20-116-1) catching a potentially tired Giants defense on a short week could win some people their fantasy matchups on Thursday night.

The line on this game moved from 49ers -10.0 to -10.5/-11.0 after the Saquon Barkley news hit, and it’s plausible/likely that it closes somewhere above the key number of -10.0.

New York is 7-2 under Daboll as road underdogs, and with their offense showing some spunk—and the 49ers “potentially” being down a key offensive piece of their own—the Giants are worth a look as double-digit+ underdogs this Thursday.