New York Giants @ Buffalo Bills

Woof.

That’s the best way to sum up the Giants’ season so far. The team vastly overperformed in 2022 and earned a surprise playoff berth, but they've crashed back to reality hard in 2023. New York is 1-4 through their first five games, and all four of their losses have come by at least 15 points.

Even the Giants' lone win this year was ugly. They managed to fall behind the Cardinals by three TDs before rallying for a comeback win in the second half.

Overall, New York sits at 0-5 against the spread, making them just as bad for bettors as they have been in real life. They’re one of three teams without a cover yet this season along with the Broncos and Panthers, but at least Denver and Carolina have each managed a push. In short, no team has cost bettors more money in 2023 than the Giants.

It’s hard to know where to get started when discussing the Giants’ problems. Their offensive line has massive holes, their defense can’t tackle, and their best skill-position players are all hurt. There literally isn’t a single positive to take away through the first five games.

Oct 2, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley (26) watches from the sidelines during the fourth quarter against the Seattle Seahawks at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

From an offensive standpoint, the injuries to Saquon Barkley and Andrew Thomas have been massive. Without Barkley, the team has had virtually no rushing attack. The Giants currently rank 28th in EPA per rush, and Daniel Jones leads the team in rushing yards through five weeks. Matt Brieda, Eric Gray, and Gary Brightwell have all averaged less than three yards per carry, putting the team into obvious passing situations.

That’s gone about as well as expected for their offensive line. New York's offensive line currently ranks dead last in Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass protection grade, and they’ve surrendered 18 sacks over the last two games. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that Jones suffered an injury at Miami last week.

There was initial optimism that Jones would suit up for this primetime matchup in Buffalo, but he was absent from practice on Wednesday. That’s not a huge concern, but it seems as though sentiment regarding Jones’s status is changing. Given the beating he’s taken of late, it might not be the worst idea to give him a rest.

Whether or not Jones or Tyrod Taylor is under center on Sunday night, the Giants' QB is going to be under duress. The Bills' defense currently ranks ninth in PFF pass rush grade, and they only figure to get better with Von Miller back in the fold. He was on a snap count in his first game back last week and could be limited again this week. That said, Miller had eight sacks in 11 games with the Bills last season, and he’s still capable of making an impact in obvious passing situations.

Buffalo is also likely going to be angry heading into this matchup. They’re coming off their worst showing of the season in London with a loss to the Jaguars. The Bills' offense couldn’t get anything going in the first half, and by the time they flipped the switch, it was ultimately too late.

Still, Buffalo's offense currently ranks third in EPA per play on the year, and Miami's offense just gashed the Giants for 524 yards last week. It’s possible that the Bills can put together a similar bounce-back performance on Sunday night.

Oct 8, 2023; London, United Kingdom; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) during the first half of an NFL International Series game at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Peter van den Berg-USA TODAY Sports

Historically, targeting Josh Allen the week after a loss has been a good decision. He’s 13-9-2 ATS in that split for his career, including 9-5-2 as a favorite.

It is tempting to say that the Giants have become undervalued. After all, teams that have zero ATS wins over a five-week stretch are 109-84-6 ATS in their next contest. However, New York is so banged up heading into this game that they’re impossible to trust.

Until Barkley and Thomas return to the lineup, I want absolutely nothing to do with this team. In fact, if this number dips back below 14 points, I’ll be tempted to take the Bills.