New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

Things continue to go from bad to worse for the Giants. They’ve already regressed badly from last season at 2-7 on the year, and things could get even uglier down the stretch.

Daniel Jones suffered a season-ending knee injury in his return to the lineup in Week 9, and backup QB Tyrod Taylor is currently on IR. That leaves the Giants with the worst group of QBs in football.

Tommy DeVito is the incumbent starter heading into this game, but his performance thus far has been uninspiring, having averaged just 3.9 adjusted yards per attempt with one TD and two INTs.

Nov 5, 2023; Paradise, Nevada, USA; New York Giants quarterback Tommy DeVito (15) is pressured by Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) during the fourth quarter at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports

If the Giants decide that they’ve seen enough of DeVito, they could always opt for Matt Barkley, who was signed to the practice squad prior to last week. They also signed Jacob Eason to the practice squad this past Tuesday.

DeVito is the most likely option for Sunday’s matchup against the Cowboys, but whoever is under center for New York is going to be in a world of hurt. The Giants have had major issues on their offensive line all season, and they currently rank dead last in Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass blocking grade.

There was some hope that the offensive line would improve in Week 9 with Andrew Thomas and Evan Neal both returning to the lineup. Thomas was one of the best offensive tackles in football last year, but unfortunately, his presence had minimal impact last week.

The Giants allowed eight sacks against the Raiders, bringing them to a grand total of 49 sacks allowed on the season. The Commanders are the only other team that’s even in the same stratosphere (44 sacks allowed), and Sam Howell has dropped back at a significantly higher rate (72% for Washington vs. 62% for New York's QBs).

If that sounds like a bad recipe for success against Dallas, it’s because it is. The Cowboys have one of the most potent pass rushes in the league, having logged seven sacks in their first meeting against the Giants back in Week 1. That game was with Thomas in the lineup, and Dallas still won 40-0.

Nov 5, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Dallas Cowboys linebacker Micah Parsons (11) stops Philadelphia Eagles running back D'Andre Swift (0) short of the goal line during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

The Cowboys also beat the Giants by a TD or more in both of their 2022 matchups. That said, a TD won't cut it for Dallas on Sunday. They’re all the way up to -16.5 at some locations, making them the biggest favorites of the 2023 season thus far.

While that might be scary, I’m not afraid to lay the points with Dallas. I’ve already locked in a play at -14.5 in the NFL Bet Tracker, but I’d be willing to play them at anything less than -17.0.

The Cowboys are coming off a disappointing loss last week against the Eagles, making this a strong bounce-back spot. Dak Prescott is 21-14-1 ATS in his career following a loss, and he’s also a sparkling 25-11 ATS overall against NFC East opponents.

Dallas is also good at beating up on inferior opponents. They already have four wins of at least 20 points this season, and they’re 20-11-1 ATS against teams with a 40.0% win rate or lower with Prescott under center.

I expect the Cowboys to continue to do what they’ve done for most of the season: establish a lead and let their pass-rushers pin their ears back. Don’t be surprised if they even add a defensive score in this game, something they’ve already done four times this season.