Giants at Cowboys (-9.0) – 44.5 total

While we fight through the tryptophan haze of Thanksgiving, the blazing Cowboys host the short-handed Giants as nine-point favorites. The 44.5-point total is the second-highest on the slate, but I’m not expecting much out of New York’s offense.

Wan’Dale Robinson is out for the year, and a knee injury kept Richie James out of their Monday walkthrough. Isaiah Hodgins and Darius Slayton are the next men up, with Kenny Golladay in tow. However, the Cowboys’ defensive front had Kirk Cousins under fire on 60.0% of his dropbacks just four days ago. 

We may see Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley on the move to combat Dallas’ pass rush, like Green Bay did in Week 10. Aaron Rodgers had a season-high 47.8% play-action rate (with two touchdowns to Christian Watson), while Aaron Jones slashed through the Cowboys for 138 yards and a score. Barkley’s been more of a boom-bust rusher, but the Giants will need as much help as possible to get anything going on offense.

If the ground game struggles, look for Jones to test the Cowboys’ secondary with Slayton. He owns 33.3% of the team’s intermediate and deep targets over the last two weeks. Golladay may be just enough fodder to keep Trevon Diggs occupied, giving Slayton more room to operate. Otherwise, expect more short-area looks to Barkley and the tight ends to keep the offense moving.

On the flip side, start all your Cowboys. Well, leave Jalen Tolbert on the wire. Since his return, Dak Prescott has been top 5 in EPA per play and CPOE. Between Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard, there’s been a Dallas rusher in the top 12 going back to Week 6. Even Michael Gallup has managed a splash play or two. But CeeDee Lamb will be the most popular play of the slate.

The Giants have ceded an average of 71.0 yards per game to receivers who primarily play on the interior. Even with his dud on Sunday, Lamb was still second in targets and one of Dak’s primary targets when under pressure. With Lamb’s 32.0% target share and high play-action usage, he’s worth building around in DFS.