Giants at Eagles

I love the reality of the Giants and Eagles as playoff teams. But their expectations couldn’t be further apart. Philadelphia has the third-highest chance of winning the Super Bowl and could use the bye week to get healthy. Meanwhile, New York is just happy to be in the conversation. But both teams have to get through this weekend first. 

The Giants can’t change their seeding, leaving Philadelphia as the only team with any motivation. As a result, rumors continue to swirl around the G-Men resting their starters but as fantasy managers, we should know what to expect.

Tyrod Taylor should get the start with Matt Breida at his side instead of Saquon Barkley. Traditionally, Taylor’s rushing upside would give him some fantasy appeal. Last year in Houston, he had a 78.9% scramble rate and was fifth in EPA per attempt. And the Eagles are 17th in rushing EPA allowed over the last two weeks as they work through their injuries. But if any of the starting pass-catchers take a seat to avoid missing time in the playoffs, our focus should be on the Eagles’ offense.

The 14-point spread and positive reports from Nick Sirianni are strong indications of a Week 18 return for Jalen Hurts. Comparing him to Gardner Minshew is simple. The backup with the cool mustache was a cog in the engine of Philadelphia’s offense; Hurts is the driver.

The Saints highlighted Minshew’s limitations under duress. The interceptions didn’t come while he was under fire, but he still took six sacks on 13 pressures. In similar situations, the ability of Hurts to scramble is what gave the Eagles a chance at another set of downs.

Over his last four games before injury, Hurts led all quarterbacks in yards and first downs on scrambles when pressured. He was averaging 1.02 EPA per attempt on his rushing attempts. Minshew was at -2.26. His mobility can’t be understated ahead of their rematch against the Giants.

In their last meeting, New York sent five or more rushers on 47.2% of his dropbacks. If Minshew were under center, there’d be cause for concern. But Hurts excelled against the Giants’ pass rush. He averaged 0.12 EPA per play for 111 yards and a score. And when forced to tuck and run, he was able to secure a first down and move the chains. There’s no question that Hurts should be in our lineups tomorrow, but the game environment may be a concern.

The Giants potentially waving the white flag has blowout potential for Philadelphia. Fantasy managers may way to shy away without a full four quarters of Hurts on the field. However, when the Eagles have led by 10-plus points through the first half, it’s because of Hurts. He’s been a top-4 QB in six of those seven contests. However, we’re not just targeting Hurts.

DeVonta Smith (43 targets) and A.J. Brown (42 targets) accounted for 51.8% of Hurts’s attempts in those games. Brown was the better fantasy asset, as he doubled Smith’s touchdown count (7 to 3). However, the defensive matchup tilts in Smith’s favor.

The sophomore receiver has the most looks from the slot, which has been the weakness of the Giants’ secondary (Michael Pittman Jr. 6-41-1, Justin Jefferson 6-72-1, Jahan Dotson 4-86-0). So both Smith and Dallas Goedert (highest slot target rate) have high floors. But WR1s have also flourished (Terry McLaurin 10-105-1, CeeDee Lamb 10-106-0), given the Giants’ blitz-happy tendency, setting up Brown for a nice day. 

There’s no question Hurts still has the potential to be a top quarterback in Week 18. Luckily for fantasy managers, even with his mobility, he brings along his receivers, too