Giants at Vikings (-3.5) – 47.5 total 

On a week where many of the games will be played in cold weather with winds that could wreak havoc on some of the league’s top passing games, New York versus Minnesota figures to be a potential offensive delight played within the the dome environment of US Bank Stadium. 

The Vikings continue to be a great matchup for opposing passing games. Teams playing Minnesota over the past three weeks have averaged 43.2 pass attempts against, and the Vikings rank second-to-last on the season in terms of yards per pass attempt allowed. Minnesota also has four cornerbacks on the team that have allowed passer ratings above 100.00. In terms of matchups, this is as good as it gets for Daniel Jones, who is also fifth in rushing yardage among all quarterbacks on the season. 

Jones tore up Detroit – another weaker passing defense – in Week 11 for 341 yards in a game where the Giants trailed for most of the second half. A similar script could play out this week for New York, who are currently +3.5-point underdogs. If you’re looking to back Jones for a big day, consider doing the same for some of his receivers. Minnesota’s nickel corner Chandon Sullivan has allowed a 78% completion rate this year and a 102.2 passer rating. Slot receiver Richie James leads the Giants in targets over the last two weeks and has caught TDs in three of his last five games. 

Saquon Barkley could be in a tough spot from a rushing perspective, as the Vikings’ defense has been serviceable in that area, allowing just 4.1 yards per carry against at home. Barkley’s rushing total likely makes for a good under target, although don’t be shocked if he breaks out as a receiver. He’s only posted more than 40 receiving yards once in a game this year, but has averaged four catches per game over his last four starts. He faces a weak coverage unit that’s allowed the fifth-most receiving yards to RBs. 

On the other side of the ball, the matchup between the Giants’ corners and Justin Jefferson will be interesting to watch. Jefferson has torn up the league with 23 catches and 346 yards during the last two weeks, but will face one of the stingier secondaries in the league in New York. The Giants’ secondary has shown signs of regressing lately, giving up five TDs to opposing WRs in their last four games, along with three separate 100-yard performances. Even if Jefferson’s yardage dips, he likely finds the end zone again this week. 

The most likely outcome for the rest of Minnesota’s offense is that T.J. Hockenson, Adam Thielen, and last week’s hero K.J. Osborn all take turns exploiting New York, who had issues dealing with the speed of Jahan Dotson last week. New York’s defensive line dominated against Washington at times and they’ll need to step up again to limit one of the most explosive passing units in the game right now. Kirk Cousins turned into a pumpkin early in that now-famous win against the Colts – who sacked Cousins seven times last week – but when Indianapolis went into prevent, the results changed drastically, as Cousins went for 417 yards in the second half and OT alone. 

The Giants were lucky to escape Washington with a win. Their defense eroded down the stretch in that game and it’s asking a lot for them to come in and dominate on the road against such a deep core of offensive talent. Minnesota should push the Giants out of their comfort zone and into a pass-heavy game script. Expect bigger passing days from Jones and Cousins, which could push tertiary players like T.J. Hockenson and Richie James into big days as well. Also look to fade the Giants’ rushing attack with Barkley, whose early-week rushing yardage projection on Fantasy Life sits at under the 60.0 mark, as of writing.