Giants at Vikings

My natural inclination was to pick the Giants over Minnesota. Just look at the discourse surrounding this team. The vibes out of New York are immaculate. They rested their starters in Week 18 and still held the Eagles (with Jalen Hurts at less than 100%) to their fourth-lowest point total of the season. So, my lean towards the G-Men isn’t based solely on their confidence level. And since they’re only three-point road underdogs, I’m not the only one that believes they have the talent to pull off an upset this weekend.

We can’t assume the Giants will reuse their Week 16 playbook. But let’s look at a couple of its core tenets. Daniel Jones only eclipsed 300 passing yards twice this season, and once was against the Vikings. So it makes sense they’d tap into some of their previous success if they can.

Minnesota sent five or more pass rushers on 28.6% of Jones’s dropbacks. As a result, we saw more of his quick game. Jones rifled the ball to his receivers in less than 2.5 seconds on 42.9% of his throws. He only missed two attempts, and we saw the rise of Richie James Jr. in the offense.

Since Week 12, the fourth-year veteran receiver is 25th in YPRR ahead of Mike Evans and Stefon Diggs. Granted, James primarily operates from the slot, but he’s also earned Jones’s trust once the team gets into scoring position and he has the most red-zone targets. And even if the Vikings switch up their man-heavy defensive approach, James is still set up for success.

He tallied 90 yards on 11 targets the last time they faced, and Allen Lazard tagged Minnesota for about half of James’s damage the week after (6-59-0). The Colts dropped 100 yards on the Vikings from the interior, and three of Detroit’s WRs found the paint running routes from the slot. Jones can use James, or any of the other pass catchers, to help him move the chains through the air. But the Giants’ ground game will also keep their offense on schedule. 

Surprisingly, Jones didn’t record a designed rushing attempt in Week 16. However, Saquon Barkley posted a 50.0% success rate, and half of Jones’s scrambles went for first downs. Efficiency, mixed with a few explosives, brought them within a field goal of beating the Vikings before. With Minnesota ranked 23rd in rushing EPA allowed over their last six games, more of Jones as a runner may push them over the top.

I already made the case about our new ELO model overrating Minnesota. But they’re still favored to win and Justin Jefferson can still griddy his way past the Giants’ defenders. Clearly, I’m playing both sides so I come out on top, but Kirk Cousins should be able to handle what Wink Martindale has in store for him.

The Giants’ defense ranked 11th in EPA per play over the last month and ended the season 7th in pressure rate. The passing ability of Cousins when under duress has been debated, with multiple turnovers against the Packers. However, there’s some hope for the Vikings’ passing game.

Starting Center Garrett Bradbury was back at practice on Wednesday. Cousins has seen pressure on 30.5% of his dropbacks without Bradbury in the lineup. The silver lining is that Cousins has the tenth-highest adjusted completion rate among all QBs over Bradbury’s five-game absence. So, with his protection improved, Kirk should be able to find time to connect with his favorite target.

Even when pressured, it should be no surprise Jefferson is ahead of all the other receiving options in Minnesota. The league’s receiving yardage leader torched them for 133 yards and a score last time. And while the previous two weeks may have given the Giants a blueprint on how to limit the All-Pro WR, the Vikings have another answer.

T.J. Hockenson is second in targets since Week 13. He hasn’t been the most efficient with his looks (1.48 YPRR), but he’s become one of Kirk’s most-trusted options. The veteran tight end’s 0.29 TPRR on third downs is the highest on the team. He’s also overtaken Adam Thielen as a redzone option. With the Giants ending the regular season ranked 26th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs, Kirk will need another strong performance from Hockenson so the Vikings can advance.