How To Fix The Falcons

The NFL offseason will be in full swing before we know it, with coaching changes, free agency and the NFL draft reshaping the 2023 fantasy football landscape. With that in mind, the Fantasy Life squad is breaking down every NFL team to determine what went wrong in 2022 and identify paths to improvement. Who knows, maybe an NFL GM will read this and realize those fantasy nerds aren’t so crazy after all – we all want the same thing, more points and more wins!!!

How To Fix The Falcons

Oct 23, 2022; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Atlanta Falcons tight end Kyle Pitts (8) catches a pass against Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Chidobe Awuzie (22) in the first half at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

Team Summary

No one knew what to expect from Atlanta to start the season. Arthur Smith’s time with Marcus Mariota in Tennessee made the signing more palatable. Plus, Atlanta added Drake London to pair with Kyle Pitts. With vets like Cordarrelle Patterson already making waves in the fantasy market, it felt like this offense could be productive. We didn’t know how it’d work. We just went off vibes.

But the good times only lasted for about six weeks. Despite being dead-last in the NFC South, Atlanta ranked ninth in EPA per play. The offense averaged 35.5 yards per drive (the league average was 32.1), and the Falcons had at least one top-12 skill player every week except for Week 5. However, despite fantasy-friendliness, the points weren’t going to the right player.

Pitts was coming off a record-breaking rookie campaign, had a third-round ADP, and ended Week 1 with 19 yards. His 26.6% target share ranked ahead of Ja’Marr Chase’s opportunity, but the sophomore TE only earned four red-zone targets. Fantasy managers didn’t know when to start him, and his Week 11 injury likely saved us (and him) from hoping things would turn around. But I’m optimistic.

Desmond Ridder took over for Mariota to close out the regular season, and the results were promising. Ridder lost his first two starts on the road, with both coming against teams who finished the season inside the top 10 in defensive DVOA. But Atlanta still averaged 34.2 yards per drive, with London as the featured receiver and Tyler Allgeier leading the ground game. Adding more young talent would put them on the right track for 2023. However, they could get a bit more out of one of the guys they already have.

Fantasy Fixer Recommendations

Get Ridder on the Move

Give credit to Arthur Smith and his run-blocking designs. He had the 49ers in a bind in their statement win over San Francisco back in Week 6 and nearly two months later, the Falcons were second in rushing success rate during Ridder’s first start against the Saints. But Atlanta’s run game wasn’t limited to C-Patt and Allgeier.

EPA Per Attempt vs Designed Rushing Rate

Before his benching, Mariota had the fourth-highest designed rushing rate at 69.0%. And he largely capitalized on the touches, with the fourth-best EPA per attempt. He had more explosive runs than Kyler Murray and generated the sixth-most first downs among all QBs with his legs. But when Ridder got the starting job, he only had five designed attempts over his four starts. Coach Smith should be using Ridder similarly next season.

I’m not asking Ridder to be Lamar Jackson after the snap (I dig the idea, though). But let’s assume the 23-year-old has more juice than the eight-year veteran. Ridder moved the chains quite often during his final season at Cincinnati. The then-prospect ranked 25th in running first downs out of 66 FBS quarterbacks. His yardage totals weren’t as gaudy as Malik Willis, but PFF’s rushing grade had him in the top 20. If Ridder takes another step as a passer and gets more rushing volume, this offense would have the versatility needed to compete.

Defensive Improvements

Now, let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. Bolstering the defense wouldn’t turn the Falcons into the Chiefs. However, we’d likely get some more plays out of them on a per-game basis. It’s actually kind of surprising to see how Atlanta’s offensive tendencies changed as contests swung in their favor.

Falcons' Pass Rate Over Expected in Different Situations

Traditional thinking would have you milk the clock via run plays to salt away the match. But the Falcons took to the air more often when above an 80.0% win probability. What’s worse is that they were at or exceeded that win probability on just 92 of their 1,000 plays this season. I’ve already talked about getting Ridder on the move to get the offense on track, and I have more thoughts on the passing game. Let’s look at their defense for a bit, though.

The Falcons allowed at least one top-12 fantasy performance from an opposing player every week except Week 16, when they played a depleted Ravens squad. Otherwise, they were the team to target. Their pass rush generated the fewest sacks, and their secondary was bottom-12 in first downs allowed through the air. Atlanta’s playstyle didn’t help, and their defense also contributed to their offense having the second-fewest drives last season. But they do have the means to turn it around next season.

They’re second in cap space, with many marquee defenders set to hit the market. Mocks also have them eyeing an EDGE in the first round. Regardless, adding resources to that side of the ball will take the pressure off Ridder and the offense.

Atlanta Needs More Receiving Options

The prevailing offseason thought was that the passing offense would focus on Pitts and London. With Olamide Zaccheaus and KhaDarel Hodge as ancillary options, the younger stars could live up to their ADPs. London’s route usage aligned with his collegiate skillset. He ran a crossing route on 53.4% of his targets and had a 10.4 aDOT, giving him the runway to create yards after the catch.

The Falcons’ offense ran play action on 44.4% of Mariota’s dropbacks, the highest rate in the league. Those passing concepts allow QBs to push the ball farther downfield, but you need an accurate passer to do it effectively. A deep receiving threat also helps.

Catchable Target Rate vs aDOT

Pitts’ 13.6 aDOT was the second-highest aDOT of any TE. It was up a full 2.5 yards from last year. He’s the fastest on the squad and fell into the clear-out role. Unfortunately, he also had the lowest catchable target rate at 56.9%. Ridder had an 8.4 aDOT at the end of last year. We can’t expect him to open things up in his first full season, but the Falcons could make some moves to get Pitts back into our good graces.

A complementary WR for London would bring the explosive TE back into the intermediate area of the field. When Calvin Ridley was on the field during the first month of the 2021 season, Pitts had an 8.8 aDOT. Either via the draft (Quentin Johnston and Zay Flowers were recent mock candidates) or free agency, new additions would stress opposing defenses. High-percentage targets like those would pull him back in line with the top-10 TEs for next season.

How To Fix The Falcons