Jaguars at Chiefs

Right or wrong, the way Saturday’s game ended influences my perception of Jacksonville’s chances this weekend. I’d be more realistic if it had the same feel as the Bengals’ contest. But the Jaguars did the unthinkable last week. So, asking them to do the same in a few days doesn’t seem as tall of a task. Regardless, we’ll need to contextualize their passing game to find any hope for them to pull off another huge win.

Let’s start with Trevor Lawrence’s accuracy.

After last week, sitting around Tyler Huntley and Tom Brady in CPOE isn’t where a QB wants to be. But throwing four interceptions will get you there. However, I’ll provide some silver linings (i.e., make excuses).

Per PFF, Lawrence had one turnover-worthy throw in the game. His first pick came on a tipped pass, and the rest were on tight-window attempts, which ran counter to what he had done all season. The second-year passer had a 10.8% throw rate into tight coverage during the regular season per Next Gen Stats. Los Angeles ratcheted it up to 27.7% on Saturday as they keyed in on Jacksonville’s route timing. Lawrence could still manage the pocket (two sacks on 12 pressures), so the main concern is his ability to connect with his receivers.

The Jaguars traveled to Kansas City in Week 10, but Evan Engram wasn’t a featured part of the offense. He ran a route on 85.4% of Lawrence’s dropbacks but only earned four targets. Over the last four games, he was third in looks with the second-most red-zone attempts thrown his way. The Raiders’ TEs combined for 45 yards on seven throws from Jarrett Stidham in week 18, and Denver got three scores from their tight ends in their two games against the Chiefs in Weeks 14 and 17. 

Christian Kirk’s slot role (12-105-2 in their last meeting) will be the constant driving force for Jacksonville. However, targets for Engram (and a deep shot to Zay Jones) will give the team the explosive plays it needs to keep up with Patrick Mahomes.

The Jaguars’ run defense is third in rushing EPA allowed over their last four games. So while Isiah Pacheco took 59.0% of the carries since Week 14, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is unlikely to play this week and Mahomes and the passing attack should continue to lead the way. Targeting Jacksonville’s interior should be their first weakness to exploit.

I look at Gerald Everett’s stat line from last week (8-109-1) and instantly think about what Travis Kelce will do. Justin Jefferson (81) is the only player to generate more first-downs than Kelce (79), but Jefferson has 28 more targets. The 33-year-old TE is second on the team in YAC and third in YPRR over the Chiefs’ last six games. But he’s not their only weapon.

Since his Week 15 return, Kadarius Toney has run 48.1% of his routes from the slot. Despite the lack of volume (nine targets in four weeks), he has the second-highest target rate when deployed from the interior. And he still manages to create a highlight or two with the ball in his hands. In their last meeting, Jacksonville ceded 171 yards to Toney, Kelce, and JuJu Smith-Schuster alone. With Toney looking like he’s back to full strength, the Chiefs may unleash him on the Jaguars this weekend.