Jacksonville Jaguars @ New Orleans Saints

The line on this game opened at 1.0, but it moved pretty quickly on Monday afternoon after the market began to digest the Jaguars injury news. As of now, Trevor Lawrence is questionable to play on Thursday night after suffering a knee sprain against the Colts. 

Lawrence did get hammered a couple of times during the game and has been more active as a runner this year (8% designed run rate, 7% scramble rate), so the increased usage caught up with him a bit in Week 6. The official report is that Lawrence’s injury is a "sprain" and that it “is not a significant thing.” Doug Pederson has also suggested Lawrence could split first-team reps with backup CJ Beathard this week. 

This all sounds like it is pointing toward Lawrence playing, albeit with the possibility that he is reduced in mobility and at higher risk of re-injury, which makes the Jaguars a shaky side to back this week. There isn’t as much value with the Saints now that the line has moved to 3.0, but it’s not necessarily a great time to be contrarian with the Jaguars UNLESS we get some great news on Lawrence toward the game. 

The other issue with Jacksonville this week is that they will likely be without top cornerback Tyson Campbell. Campbell (hamstring) left last week’s game and has already missed an early walkthrough. Even if he does play, he’ll be less than 100% and that’s not good against a Saints wide receiver core that went for 224 yards last week against a more competent Texans secondary. 

Campbell being out really puts the Jaguars in a bind as they are already getting hammered by opposing passing offenses. The Jaguars rank 23rd in yards per pass attempt against and have allowed the second most passing yards against, overall. 

Sep 24, 2023; Green Bay, Wisconsin, USA; New Orleans Saints wide receiver Chris Olave (12) reaches to catch a pass during the second quarter against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

With Campbell injured, this opens up the door for another big game from Chris Olave, who led the Saints with 96 yards (7 rec./10 targets) last week and leads the Saints with a 41% air yards share. Olave’s props are still relatively low as of writing (opened at 61.5 receiving yards this week—up from 54.5 last week) and worth looking at again as an over play for betting. 

On the Jaguars' side, what they do and can accomplish on offense will be dictated by the Lawrence injury. Travis Etienne Jr. (55-2, 3-18) has been phenomenal to date for the Jaguars and will certainly be leaned on again here. While his efficiency is down (4.0 yards per carry), the Jaguars have been deploying him far more as a receiver this season (3.5 rec. and 28.6 yards per game vs. 2.05 and 18.6 yards per game in 2022). That trend may continue this week as the Jaguars will not want to attack an elite New Orleans secondary that is 5th in yards per pass attempt against.  

Expect Etienne to be leaned on regardless of whether Lawrence plays or not. The Saints have been decent against the run (14th in yards per carry against—3.9 YPC), but the interior of their defense is likely their biggest weakness, and they gave up a decent day to Devin Singletary (12-58) last week. 

A lot of how to play this game goes will be based on the news we get about the Lawrence injury, but one thing to keep an eye on is the total. This game opened at 41.5 to 42.5 and was at 45.0 on the preseason lookahead line. There are no weather concerns and yet it has still been bet down to 38.5 in spots. The Jaguars will be missing a key piece on defense and have averaged 28.3 points over their last three games. If Lawrence plays and sounds relatively healthy, it may be a good time to buy the overreaction and play the over on Thursday.