Jaguars at Texans 

The Jaguars take on the Texans this week in what is, for all intents and purposes, a meaningless game. The Jaguars’ playoff hopes now come down almost exclusively to their Week 18 matchup against Tennessee, where a win would give them the AFC Division crown. Luckily for us, Head Coach Doug Pederson has already come out and stated that Jacksonville will be playing for the win this week and has chosen not to rest starters. 

That means we’ll be getting Trevor Lawrence for a full game against a bottom-tier Houston defense that ranks just 18th in defensive DVOA against the pass. Houston has been decimated by injuries of late and will still be without rookie corner Derek Stingley, making this a better matchup for Zay Jones, who caught just one ball last week on four targets against the Jets. Jones had been on a tear prior to the tough matchup with Sauce Gardner, grabbing four TDs in his two previous games.  

This week’s game will be played in the comfy confines of NRG Stadium, giving Jones a great chance at a bounce-back game. He’s projected for 66.5 receiving yards on Fantasy Life this week and makes for a great over target on BetMGM, where he currently has a 44.5 receiving prop. 

The Texans’ offense has improved somewhat over their last three games and if they manage to keep this game close, expect it to be because of a big day from Davis Mills. Mills has been held under 200 yards in each of his last three games, but has shown increased efficiency with Brandin Cooks back in the lineup. Considering how strong the Jaguars’ front is against the run, Cooks is in a good spot to potentially push for 8+ targets once again.

Cooks will take on a Jaguars secondary who ranks second-last in defensive pass DVOA and has been burned by elite WR1’s all season, most recently giving up a 7-126 line to CeeDee Lamb. Cook’s projection of 60.9 receiving yards on Fantasy Life also makes him a solid over target this week. Game flow seems likely to work in his favor and he’ll have one of the best matchups a WR1 could ask for. 

This line has moved down to -3.0 after opening around -4.5 in favor of the Jaguars. While there seems to be some concern among bettors of a Jaguars letdown, the fact that their coach has emphasized playing starters makes that seem somewhat unlikely. Jacksonville is the far superior team on offense and should be able to get enough pressure to disrupt an erratic Houston pass game. A decisive Jaguars win is worth playing for on the -3.0 spread.