Jaguars at Titans (-4.0) – 41.0 total

I honestly don’t know if there’s been a tougher team to figure out this season than the Jaguars. Some weeks, they look like they’re on the verge of putting it all together. They played a very competitive game against the Chiefs, and they have wins against the Ravens and the Chargers.

Other weeks, they look like an absolute disaster. They couldn’t stop a nosebleed last week, with the Lions scoring on each of their first eight possessions. They’re also the only team to lose to the Texans this season.

Still, the sharps have shown some interest in the Jaguars in this spot. They’ve received 70% of the spread dollars on just 33% of the bets, which is one of the largest discrepancies of the week. The Jags have even dipped all the way to +3.5 in some locations.

The public unsurprisingly likes the Titans. They’re coming off an uncharacteristic performance last week versus the Eagles, and they suffered a slim defeat against the Bengals two weeks ago. Prior to that, the Titans had been absolutely rolling. They rattled off wins in seven of their previous eight games, with the lone exception being an overtime loss against the Chiefs with Malik Willis at quarterback.

It’s hard to see the Titans struggling again. They have absolutely dominated against the AFC South, with Mike Vrabel and Ryan Tannehill posting a record of 12-6 against the spread. That makes them the third-most profitable head coach-QB combo against divisional opponents since 2019.

The Titans have also historically bounced back well after losses under Vrabel and Tannehill. They’re 11-6-1 against the spread following a loss, including 9-3-1 following a double-digit loss.

So which version of these teams do we see this week? That remains to be seen. The Jaguars have proven they can hang with good teams when they bring their A game, and they’re likely going to need it against what should be a focused Titans squad.