Jets at Bills (-9.0) – 44.0 total

This week, the Bills will be looking to avenge a 20-17 they suffered on the road earlier in Week 9 against the Jets. The game will be played in Buffalo, where the Sunday weather is currently calling for temperatures around 35-40° F and a mix of rain and snow to drop during the game. 

While the Jets may be seen as the more rough and tumble team given the elite defense they often rely on and the persona of their head coach, the poor weather forecast in this game likely favors the Bills. The Bills brushed off concerns about their defense giving up too many yards and Josh Allen’s elbow issues to post a convincing 24-10 win last week against the Patriots, a game which saw them rush the ball 37 times. The Bills have now averaged 33.0 rushes per game over their last three starts and have been relying more on rookie James Cook out of the backfield, who played on a season high 43% of the snaps last Thursday. 

Cook and backmate Devin Singletary ran for just 39 yards combined the last time these two teams met, and their success against the Jets’ 11th ranked rush defense will be a factor in how this game plays out. Cook’s player props particularly will be worth looking at this week, as the aura of the Jets defense and the fact that Singletary is still the de facto starter should work to keep his yardage totals suppressed. Buffalo would love to limit Allen’s passing reps before the playoff run as much as possible and should also be wary of top ranked CB Sauce Gardner’s presence. Gardner held Justin Jefferson to just 45 yards last week and didn’t allow Stefon Diggs to find the endzone against him in Week 9. 

On the other side of the ball, the Mike White Tour continues on another week for the Jets. New York has seemingly found a little something special in the 2018 fifth-round draft pick (Dallas) who threw for over 300 yards for the second straight game in last week’s matchup against Minnesota. There were some concerns with White that began to pop up last week though, as he averaged just 6.47 yards per attempt (versus 11.25 the week prior against the Bears) and threw two INTs against an otherwise unspectacular secondary in Minnesota. He’ll be in tough this week against a Bills pass defense that ranks seventh in defensive pass DVOA and is third in the league with 13 INTs on the season. 

White’s regression could also hinder the prospects for Garrett Wilson in this game. Wilson has quickly become the favorite target for White, hauling in 13 catches for 257 yards the last two weeks and hasn’t been shy about his affinity for White (sorry to Zach Wilson’s mom’s friends). The Bills having back CB Tre'Davious White for this game will be helpful in shutting down the rookie, who did pop for an 8-92 line against Buffalo in Week 9. White had a solid game against the Patriots in Week 13 and should be back to a nearly every down role just in time for a match-up with the Jets star rookie. 

The Jets have been a nice story and have made it easier to cheer for them now that Mike White is the quarterback. The storybook season may take a huge road bump this week, however, as they're facing an increasingly healthy Bills team who have been running the ball with fury of late. The spread looks big but Buffalo’s run game and defense were menacing last week and a repeat performance against another AFC East rival seems imminent. A convincing Bills win (and cover) is the most likely outcome between these division rivals.