New York Jets at Cleveland Browns

Both teams are coming into Week 17 off of wins, albeit of much different varieties. The Jets blew a 27-7 lead in the second half against Washington but managed to rally and kick a game-winning field goal with time expiring to win 30-28. 

The story for the Jets was once again their defense. They picked off Sam Howell twice and held him to a miserable 6 of 22 passing performance that got him benched in the 3rd quarter.

The Jets' offense did create some scores of their own, but most of the explosiveness came from the run game and the legs of Breece Hall, who broke out for 95 yards and two TDs as a rusher.  The bad news for the Jets is that they once again got extremely poor play from the QB position. Trevor Siemian did manage a TD pass in the first half against the Commanders' league-worst defense, but he also averaged just 4.49 yards per attempt and has now thrown for three INTs and just one TD across his last 75 pass attempts. 

The news out of Jetsland today indicates that Zach Wilson (concussion) will miss another week, meaning Siemian will start against Cleveland. That’s bad news for the Jets, who are admittedly just playing out the string at this point anyways. 

New York Jets running back Breece Hall (20) leaps for a touchdown towards the end of the first half, at MetLife Stadium, Sunday December 24, 2023. The home team was winning, 27-7 at halftime. Credit: Kevin R. Wexler / USA TODAY NETWORK

Cleveland is in a much different position. With their win last week (third in a row) they now have a legit shot at the number one seed in the AFC and are only two games back of Baltimore in the AFC North, who have a tough matchup with Miami this week. Joe Flacco continues to impress as he threw for 368 yards and 3 TDs last week against Houston and is now averaging 7.5 yards per attempt in four starts. 

Flacco’s interception rate is a little alarming (7 INTs in four games), and the Jets do have one of the best secondaries in the league and enter this game with 14 INTs on the season. At the same time, the Browns do have the weapons to counteract the Jets' strong corners. TE David Njoku (6-44-1) caught another TD last week, his fourth in three games, and faces a New York squad that has allowed the third most TDs (7) to opposing TEs on the year. While Cleveland’s inability to run the ball lately is concerning, it should be a good spot for Jerome Ford as well, who remains Cleveland’s most well-rounded back. 

Ford’s receiving prowess didn’t shine through last week, but it’s worth noting that the Jets have allowed an above-average number of receptions and yards to opposing RBs. 

On the other end of the spectrum, the Jets will likely need another career day out of Breece Hall if they are planning to score points this week. Cleveland ranks sixth in pressure rate and is second in yards per attempt against this season. They are slightly weaker against the rush but remain 6th in success rate (against the run) as well. 

The spread in this game opened at 6.5 but now sits at 7.0 to 7.5 at most sportsbooks, and I’m not sure what took it so long to get over 7.0. The Jets survived their ineptitude last week but now face a top-five defense and a QB who is throwing the ball as well as anyone in the league at the moment. The Browns certainly look like the side to target in this game and also sit in great Wong teaser range as they can be taken down to -1.0 or -1.5 as part of a teaser leg (and through multiple key numbers). 

For prop betting, the over on the totals for Njoku and Ford’s receiving props will be of interest, as will the unders on Trevor Siemian’s passing props, who could certainly get pulled for the equally inept Tim Boyle at some point if this game gets really out of hand.