New York Jets @ Dallas Cowboys

I see this game, and I feel bad. 

I feel bad for Zach Wilson.

The kid (rightfully) had to take a back seat to a future Hall of Fame QB, watched the offense rebuilt in Aaron Rodgers’ likeness, and suddenly got thrust back into a difficult position.

Wilson’s volatility makes him a liability. I hope he performs well, but we’ll get to his Week 2 outlook in a bit.

I also feel bad for the fans.

The Jets had everything in place to compete in the AFC East. They even had a storybook ending to cap off their season opener.

And now, they head to Dallas with their backup QB to face a defense that just shut out their first opponent.

Things may look bleak, but there may be a few slivers of hope to keep the game competitive.

Well, maybe. Let’s start with the good.

Wilson appeared more competent than in past seasons. He was 10th in completion percentage over expected (CPOE) at +6.4% after spending the entirety of the ’22 season ranked behind Carson Wentz (-3.6%) and Davis Mills (-3.8%).

As a result, the Jets had an efficient offense. They were league-average in yards per drive (26.3) and ninth in EPA per drive. But I still see the same flaws when zooming in on his performance.

Wilson had an average time to throw of 3.3 seconds. He’d hesitate with receivers waving for him in the end zone before running around behind the line of scrimmage. And then throw the ball about 4.2 air yards. The Jets had zero explosive passing plays.

Breece Hall’s two long runs of 20 and 83 yards accounted for 37.7% of New York’s total offense. That was just two of their 49 plays. Something has to change before facing Dallas, or else Wilson’s 45.8% pressure rate will look much worse.

The Jets’ coaching staff could pull some inspiration from the “Mike White experience.” The legendary backup had a similar aDOT in 2021 and relied on his receivers' YAC ability. We just watched Breece Hall take a screen from behind the LOS for 20 yards. And, granted, it’s just one week, there are three Jets’ pass-catchers in the Top 25 in YAC per reception not named Garrett Wilson.

So, assuming Wilson continues to dominate the targets while making big plays, the Wilson under center can stay upright throughout the game.

Sep 11, 2023; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; New York Jets wide receiver Garrett Wilson (17) celebrates his touchdown reception in front of Buffalo Bills cornerback Tre'Davious White (27) during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

For Dallas, we should expect to see more of the offense. (Again) Well, maybe.

The Cowboys ran 55 plays on Sunday night. It’s a mark they exceeded in all but one game last season. But you can take the night off when your defense only allows 171 yards of offense. However, it’s not like Dak Prescott didn’t play well.

Prescott was fifth in EPA per dropback while layering targets to eight receivers. But the breakdown didn’t go as expected. Newly-acquired Brandin Cooks led the team in air yard share (22.1%), and TE Jake Ferguson hoarded the targets (28.0%). Luckily, CeeDee Lamb (like he usually does) made the most of what he earned. 

While 11.7 PPR points don’t look like much, Lamb had the third-most YAC per reception on the week. And if it was third down, Dak was looking his way as Lamb had most looks from Prescott in obvious passing situations.

So, after seeing Stefon Diggs’ stat line (10-102-1) with his lone score coming from the slot, fantasy managers should feel confident about Lamb getting back into the WR1 ranks in Week 1. And you should be comfortable with Tony Pollard’s Week 1 results, too.

At first glance, Pollard having just 53.8% of the RB carries would be concerning, even with the two touchdowns. Rico Dowdle (6 carries) and Deuce Vaughn (6) mixed in enough to make the backfield look like a full-blown committee. But let’s apply some context.

The score was 16-0 by the end of the first quarter. At that point, Pollard was the only RB with a carry or target. When the halftime score was 26-0, still, it was just Pollard with the most routes and looks from Prescott along with 70.0% of the carries. Plus, the former Memphis RB was also the only rusher with a red-zone carry.

James Cook was 11th in yards after contact per attempt among all RBs (min 5 carries) against the Jets’ defense. With Pollard’s usage as both a rusher and receiver, he’ll get enough opportunity to maintain his RB1 status.