New York Jets @ Miami Dolphins

This is a critical bounce-back game for the Dolphins following their loss to the Titans on Monday Night Football. 

Losses for the Chiefs and Jaguars mean that Miami is currently in the #2 seed, but with their final three games coming against the Cowboys, Ravens, and Bills, it is critical for Miami to get a win against an inferior Jets team.

For their part, the Jets are coming off one of their most impressive performances of the season. New York crushed the Texans in a game where their defense shined, and Zach Wilson actually looked good. Wilson dropped 301 yards and 2 TDs against a solid Houston defense, but we’ll need to see him play at that level for a while before we can start to trust him at all.

On the season, Miami has been one of the most efficient rushing and passing offenses, while the Jets have been near the bottom of both categories. It would be a major upset for the Jets to go into Miami and win, but there are a few reasons to think that might be possible.

The big question for the Dolphins offense is the health of Tyreek Hill. The NFL’s top WR injured his ankle against Houston and took fans on a rollercoaster of emotions by sprinting off the field but then staying on the sideline for many of the team’s key drives in the second half. Early reporting suggests he has a good chance to suit up in Week 15, but if he is limited in a meaningful way, that could have huge implications for the rest of the Miami offense. 

If Hill is hobbled, it would be a small boost for Jaylen Waddle’s fantasy value but would hurt just about everyone else. We saw how much less effective this Dolphins team is without him against the Titans, and the Jets' defense will be a much tougher matchup.

New York has been the best pass defense all season and is one of the few teams who might actually be able to line up man-for-man against Miami and like their chances, even when Hill is healthy. They did give up 102 yards and a score to him in Week 12, but that is a down game by Hill’s 2023 standards.

The Jets haven’t been nearly as strong at defending the run, so that may be how Miami chooses to attack this game, but they’ll need to at least be able to threaten with the vertical passing game to keep New York from stacking the box to stop Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane.

It is no coincidence that the Jets' best offensive performance in quite some time came in a game where they featured Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson early and often. The dynamic duo accounted for 36 opportunities (carries + targets), and both delivered for fantasy managers. Both players should be in your starting lineup again this week.

If Wilson can play another clean game where he hits on a few big throws, the Jets have a shot to pull another stunning upset. That being said, I’m pretty skeptical of Wilson's ability to keep up that level of play. I expect Miami to get the win at home and wouldn’t be surprised to see them find new ways to use Achane if Hill is less than 100%.