Jets at Dolphins

This game had so much more intrigue a few weeks ago before things went downhill for both teams. We’ve got the Jets on one side, a team that had feasible playoff hopes on Christmas and can now only play spoiler to Miami. And the Dolphins are doing their late-season tailspin with five-straight losses. They’re staring down their third contest without Tua Tagovailoa under center and need some magic to get into the postseason dance. New York may go down swinging with the Dolphins floundering, but I’ve got my concerns about the Jets’ offense putting up a fight with the offseason on their minds.

I thought Mike White would be the team’s savior in Week 17, but Seattle had other plans. White was under fire on 48.0% of his dropbacks last Sunday. The Seahawks came into the match using zone coverage on 54.9% of their plays. As a result, White’s average time to throw skyrocketed from 2.48 seconds over his earlier three starts to 2.89 against Seattle, per PFF. At -0.37 EPA per play, White was only more efficient than Gardner Minshew, Nick Foles, and Davis Mills. White dragged the rest of the offense down with him, but we shouldn’t see the same against the Dolphins.

Miami’s zone coverage rate over the same span is at 40.1% and last week, the Dolphins only pressured Mac Jones on 22.2% of his dropbacks. While nobody’s looking to White as their QB option, his positive outlook brings his pass-catchers back into play for the season finale. 

Garrett Wilson could get another ten targets and more than his measly 18 yards last week, as other WR1s have had productive days against Miami (Jakobi Meyers 9-48-1, Allen Lazard 11-61-0, and Stefon Diggs 9-60-0). The Dolphins are also dead last in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends, which keeps Tyler Conklin in the top-20 discussion. White may need some improvement from the backfield to keep the offense on schedule (21st in rushing success rate against Seattle). Regardless, a step forward from him boosts the floor of the entire team. Let’s hope either Miami quarterback can do the same for the Dolphins' offense. 

I say either quarterback, as there’s still some uncertainty. Teddy Bridgewater has a dislocated pinky, which cost him the last quarter of Week 17. He still averaged 31.1 yards per drive against the Patriots before a stiff arm sent him to the shadow realm. There’s a chance we see Skylar Thompson, which lowers the ceiling for the Dolphins' skill players, but still gives them a stable floor.

 While the game environment was different for both quarterbacks, they had over 20 dropbacks last week. So, for those considering Tyreek Hill in their Week 18 contests, he’s a large part of the offense regardless of who’s under center. There is some concern for Jaylen Waddle’s opportunity, as Thompson’s 6.0 aDOT favored Miami’s interior options, and Waddle ran the fourth-most routes from the slot. And while Thompson averaged 29.8 yards per drive, he’s at a -7.4% CPOE across his three games with more than 15 dropbacks. So the passing game might take a step back, but the running backs may be in play for Sunday.

Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson Jr. combined for six of Bridgewater’s 19 attempts. Mostert started the game, but Wilson handled both short-yardage carries and 83.3% of the two-minute work. New York’s run defense looked mortal against the Seahawks and finished 20th in rushing EPA allowed. If Thompson does get the start, both deserve a look as high-end RB3s.