Jets at Seahawks

I’m fascinated by this game for multiple reasons. A win for either team puts them back in the playoff picture. So, the short-term impacts are obvious. But let’s look toward the offseason. The optimistic vibes from Seattle during the midseason are starting to dwindle. Meanwhile, we’ve got the Jets making their third (fourth? Wait, fifth?) quarterback change. 

Both teams could use a positive bump as the regular season nears its finale. At least New York is doing all they can to position themselves to go down swinging.

After last Thursday night, Mike White taking over as the starter was all but inevitable. In Zach Wilson’s two starts after taking over for White, his 60.9% on-target rate from a clean pocket was 33rd amongst all passers. But most of us weren’t looking to start a Jets’ quarterback in this game. 

If you are, I’m sorry. 

Regardless, it’s more about what White brings to the players attached to the offense.

 The Jets’ PROE did tick down from -1% to -5% with Wilson under center. But such a shift shouldn’t equate to nearly 20.0% cuts in their yards per drive and plays per game. White lifts the floor for the offense, with his pass-catching options averaging 17.3 yards after the catch over his three starts. It might be tough to trust the receivers after consecutive duds, but a matchup against Seattle should give us a bit more hope.

Garrett Wilson has led the team in routes, targets, and yards over the last two weeks. So even after the poor results in Week 16, the rookie should stay in your starting lineup. Travis Kelce’s 113-yard day against the Seahawks might funnel folks to Tyler Conklin or C.J. Uzomah. But they’re not running routes like Kelce. Or George Kittle for that matter. Wilson is a top-24 receiver with WR1 upside, but the Jets’ running game will also be a factor. The only problem is that it’s tough to decide who to start.

Zonovan Knight remained the early-down workhorse in their Week 16 loss, but Michael Carter mixed in on 66.7% of the third down snaps and took half of the two-minute touches. Carter’s receiving usage (11 targets since Week 15) makes him more favorable in PPR leagues, especially against a defense allowing 38.5 YPG to RBs since their bye. However, with the touch gap closing over the last few weeks, both are low-end RB2s in Week 17.

I thought Geno Smith had a chance to pull off the upset, but I forgot how important Tyler Lockett was to the offense. And no, I’m not talking about the toe-dragging shows he puts on in the red zone (although one or two of those would’ve been nice). I mean his ability to keep the offense on schedule. Seattle could barely make it to Kansas City’s 20-yard line without him.

 Since the Seahawks’ Week 11 bye, Lockett and DK Metcalf had the same number of targets on third down. And of Smith’s 15 third-down conversions, Lockett was responsible for six of them. It’s tough to ask an injured Marquise Goodwin to replicate the same skill at creating separation in a pure-passing situation. Lockett’s got a shot to play this week, but let’s hope Shane Waldron was taking notes on Thursday so he can feature another of his offensive weapons.

The plan for the Jaguars was simple; just get the ball in Evan Engram’s hands. Luckily, Noah Fant has played a similar role. He came into Week 16 with two missed practices, so without any in-game setbacks, Fant is a high-end streaming option for Week 17. But let’s not forget Kenneth Walker III.

The rookie RB was also on the injury report for most of the week but still cracked the century mark for the fourth time this season. Walker handled 75.0% of the short-distance totes and worked alongside DeeJay Dallas on 42.9% of the two-minute work. Even with Quinnen Williams back, the Jets were 23rd in rushing EPA allowed last Thursday. Despite the lack of passing work, Walker remains a mid-range RB2 in Week 17.