Jets at Vikings (-3.0) – 45.5 total

If I had told you before the season started that Mike White was now starting for the New York Jets in Week 13 (with Zach Wilson 100% healthy) and they had a chance to move to 8-4 this week with a win against Minnesota, would you have believed me? Doubtful. And don’t kid yourselves, even the most prevalent of Jets backers would have taken the L on that one. Wildly enough, that exact scenario is where we find ourselves this week as the Jets visit Minnesota in what will be a very important game for each team’s playoff future. 

Minnesota has already gone 3-0 against the AFC East this year (beating both Buffalo and Miami on the road) but is coming off a somewhat controversial Week 12 win over the Patriots on Thanksgiving. The Vikings allowed Mac Jones to pass for a season-best 10.87 yards per attempt in Week 12 while completing over 71% of his passes. Their defense now ranks sixth-worst in defensive pass DVOA and have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs this year. With Zach Wilson at the helm, this deficiency may not have mattered much. The Jets produced under 160 yards passing in four of Wilson’s last five games as starter and have relied on a defense which has allowed just 4.8 yards per play (second best in the league) to keep them in games. 

However, given what Mike White did last week against another weak NFC North secondary in Chicago, the Jets may once again move the ball through the air a lot more freely than people think. White completed 78% of his passes for 11.2 yards per attempt against the Bears and rejuvenated elite WR talent Elijah Moore, who popped up for a 2-67-TD line. It was Moore’s first time going for over 50 yards since Week 4. Every Vikings cornerback outside of Patrick Peterson has allowed a QB rating over 100.00 when thrown at this season, giving both Moore and rookie Garrett Wilson a chance at a big game this week. 

On the flip side, there will be a ton of attention given to the Justin Jefferson versus Sauce Gardner match-up on the outside. Gardner ranks out with the top grade of all cornerbacks on PFF at the moment while Jefferson just broke an NFL record last week, producing the most yards in NFL history of any WR over the first three seasons of his career. Given that the Jets have only allowed 4.1 yards per carry against this year (7th best in the league), Kirk Cousins may be looking for new acquisition T.J. Hockenson more in this matchup. Hockenson only has one less target than Jefferson over the last two games and played on over 80% of the snaps against New England. 

Given how Mike White performed last week, I fully expect him to carve up this Vikings secondary given the elite WRs he has to work with. Minnesota has been resilient and a team that appears to have a guardian angel on its side at times, so taking the points with New York (who are 4-1 ATS on the road in 2022) is likely the more prudent option than playing for the outright upset. Expect a close, faster paced game with the Jets WRs benefitting from both improved QB play and a matchup with a weak Minnesota secondary.