Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys

The gauntlet simply does not stop for the Cowboys. They’ve had to face a brutal schedule recently, having played against the Seahawks, Eagles, Bills, and Dolphins in their past four games. They’re coming off back-to-back losses, and Dallas will face another stiff test on Saturday against Detroit.

The Cowboys' recent losses have basically eliminated any hope of stealing the NFC East crown from the Eagles. They’re still only one game behind Philadelphia in the standings, but the Eagles have the second-easiest remaining strength of schedule with matchups against the Cardinals and Giants. Even if Philadelphia did somehow drop a game in the next two weeks, which seems highly unlikely, there would still be no guarantee that Dallas would win the tiebreaker.

The good news is that the Cowboys have secured a Wild Card spot at the very least. Going on the road in the playoffs isn't an ideal outcome, but they’ve managed to punch a ticket to the postseason for the third straight year.

Meanwhile, the Lions have officially won the NFC North for the first time since 1993. That’s so long ago that more than 85% of current NFL players hadn’t even been born yet.

More importantly, Detroit also still has a shot at the No. 1 seed in the NFC and a first-round bye. They would need the 49ers to lose one of their final two games, but if that were to somehow happen and the Lions could win out, they would get the benefit of home field advantage throughout the playoffs.

Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown dives for a touchdown against Denver Broncos safety P.J. Locke during the first half at Ford Field in Detroit on Saturday, Dec. 16, 2023. Photo Credit: Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

Both of these teams are built around high-flying offenses. The Lions currently rank third in yards per game and fifth in points per game while the Cowboys are sixth in yards per game and second in points per game. Dallas does hold a slight edge in EPA per play, though, ranking second compared to seventh for Detroit.

The big difference between these squads is on defense. The Cowboys haven’t been quite as dominant as they were last year, but they’ve still been quite good. They currently rank fourth in EPA allowed per play defensively, thanks in large part to their monstrous pass-rush. Micah Parsons is the favorite to take home Defensive Player of the Year right now, and Dallas's defense overall ranks second in Pro Football Focus (PFF) pass-rush grade.

The Lions have not been nearly as impressive on defense. They’re just 21st in EPA allowed per play, and they’ve struggled mightily against the pass, ranking just 24th in dropback EPA allowed and 26th in success rate allowed.

However, Detroit has made a few key changes on that side of the ball recently. They’re giving more snaps to rookie defensive back Brian Branch, who responded with a big performance this past Sunday against the Vikings with an INT and a forced fumble. Branch currently grades as the No. 21 cornerback per PFF on the year, and the Lions would be wise to continue giving him more snaps in the coming weeks.

The Cowboys are currently listed as six-point home favorites in this matchup, and that feels like too many points at a glance. Entering Week 16, the Cowboys were considered approximately 4.25 points better than the Lions per the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings, and that gap will likely be a bit closer heading into Week 17.

Dec 24, 2023; Miami Gardens, Florida, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) attempts a pass against the Miami Dolphins during the second half at Hard Rock Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports

However, this is undoubtedly a good spot to buy low on Dallas. Dak Prescott has historically crushed at home and as a favorite. He’s 33-23-1 ATS when at home and 48-32-2 ATS when laying points. Add them both together, and Prescott is 28-20-1 as a home favorite during the regular season.

Additionally, like most good QBs, Prescott has historically fared well coming off a loss. He’s 22-15-1 ATS in that split, good for a +15.3% ROI.

Given that all the trends are working in the Cowboys’ favor this week on top of their edge on defense, I’d lay the points with Dallas in this matchup.