Lions at Packers 

For the Packers, the playoffs officially start in Week 18. They control their own destiny, so a win over the Lions would send them to the playoffs for the 12th time in the past 14 years. A loss or tie would officially send them home.

The Lions’ playoff bandwagon has lost steam in recent weeks, and their current playoff odds sit at just 17%. They would be eliminated with a loss to the Packers, but a win would keep their hopes alive. They would also need the Seahawks to lose at home to the Rams, and they’re currently listed as six-point favorites.

The fact that this game is being played on Sunday Night Football creates an interesting dynamic. If Seattle wins their matchup, the Lions would have nothing left to play for in this spot. That creates a scenario where motivation could be an issue. Dan Campbell and his team have fought hard all season, but losing a chance to clinch a playoff spot minutes before taking the field would have to be a bit demoralizing.

Still, the fact that they are even in this position has to be considered a positive. It was looking like another lost year in Detroit after starting at just 1-6 through their first seven games, but they rattled off six wins in a seven-week stretch to put themselves back in contention.

The team now has plenty of promise moving forward, particularly on offense. They’ve been one of the best units in football all season, ranking fourth in points per game and third in yards, and Jared Goff has completely revived his stock after being left for dead. He’s turned in one of the most efficient seasons of his career, averaging 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt with 29 touchdown passes and seven interceptions. The rest of his supporting cast is young and talented, and with a full season from Jameson Williams, this offense could be even better next season.

Detroit’s biggest issue has been the defense, ranking dead last in yards per game allowed. They’re 28th in defensive DVOA, and they’ve been particularly exploitable on the ground.

That doesn’t bode well for the Packers. Despite having a first-ballot Hall of Famer at quarterback, Green Bay has morphed into a running machine this season. They rank third in the league in rushing DVOA, and they’ve been in the middle of the pack in terms of pass rate over expectation. The Packers rumbled for 163 yards last week versus the Vikings, and Aaron Rodgers had just 159 passing yards in a comfortable 24-point win.

Ultimately, I think the best way to approach this game is to wait and see what happens in Seattle. If the Seahawks win, this number is going to shoot up with people knowing that Detroit has nothing left to play for. That creates a scenario where the Lions would become undervalued. There is simply no way that Campbell is mailing in the final game of the regular season, especially since the team is preparing like this is a playoff game.

Historically, there has been value in targeting teams that have been eliminated against teams that need to win. Since 1990, non-playoff teams are a whopping 96-59-4 against teams fighting for a playoff spot over the final two weeks.