Lions (-2.5) at Panthers – 44.0 total

This game didn’t figure to have much meaning a month ago, but all of a sudden, it’s vital for both squads. The Panthers are just one game behind the Buccaneers in the NFC South standings, while the Lions are very much in the mix for a Wild Card spot. The Lions currently have a 40% chance of qualifying for the postseason, while the Panthers are at 22%.

That makes the results of this game extremely important for both squads. If the Lions manage to win – their seventh win in their past eight games – their playoff odds would improve to 61%. That means they would become slight favorites to make the postseason after starting the year at 1-6, and the only other team to make the playoffs after such a dismal start was the 1970 Bengals.

If the Panthers win, Detroit’s playoff chances slip to just 19%, while the Panthers’ improve to 34%. This game isn’t quite as important for Carolina, since their final two games are against the Bucs and Saints. Those are their two biggest competitors in the NFC South, so they can still make the postseason if they win both contests. However, if they manage to win each of their final three games, they are guaranteed to represent the NFC South in the playoffs.

This will be an interesting stylistic clash. The Lions have emerged as a legitimate offensive juggernaut this season. That wasn’t necessarily expected with Jared Goff under center, but they rank in the top five in both yards and points per game. They also rank sixth in the league in offensive DVOA, and they’ve scored at least 31 points in four of their past six games.

Their offense was kept in check by the Jets last week, but the Jets have a fantastic defense. And the Lions still managed to rack up 359 yards of total offense, which was the second-highest output they’ve allowed all season.

The Lions typically have to put plenty of points on the scoreboard since their defense is pretty terrible. They did manage to limit the Jets to just 17 points last week, but that stands out as a clear outlier.

The good news for Detroit is that the Panthers are another team that can struggle offensively. They are a one-dimensional team, and when they play well, it’s because they’re able to run the football. In each of the Panthers’ past three wins, the team has racked up at least 185 rushing yards. In their past two losses, they have just 57 total rushing yards.

The Steelers were able to slow down the Panthers’ rushing attack last week, and Sam Darnold was not capable of beating them with his arm. The Panthers were able to score a bit in the fourth quarter to make the final margin look closer than it actually was, but they trailed by 14 points going into the final frame.

The Lions have been slightly better against the run than the pass, and they were able to limit the Jets to just 50 rushing yards on 22 carries last week. They should be able to employ a similar strategy this week, and if they’re successful, I don’t know how Darnold and company can keep up with the Lions high-flying offense. It always feels scary to jump on a “bandwagon team” – and the Lions’ bandwagon is definitely getting crowded – but I think they’re the right side in this matchup.