One of the best matchups of the week features the Lions traveling to Baltimore to take on the Ravens.

The days of the Lions being an NFL cellar-dweller are long in the past. They’re 5-1 this season, tying them for the best record in the league. The Eagles and 49ers are also 5-1 in the NFC, while the Chiefs and Dolphins are 5-1 in the AFC. That’s pretty elite company.

The Lions have the underlying metrics to back it up. They boast an elite offense for the second straight year, ranking third in the league in yards per game and fourth in points. Jared Goff is quietly having an MVP-caliber season, ranking first at the position in Pro Football Focus grade and fifth in EPA + CPOE composite.

The big difference is that this season, the Lions can also play some defense. They were an abomination on that side in 2022, ranking dead last in yards per game and 28th in points. With that in mind, it’s not surprising that they invested heavily on defense during the offseason.

They were particularly aggressive in upgrading the secondary, acquiring Cameron Sutton, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and Emmanuel Moseley. They also brought in a linebacker in Alex Anzalone and a defensive lineman in Isaiah Buggs, and they spent two premium draft picks on defense as well.

Those moves have paid massive dividends to start the season. They’re all the way up to ninth in points per game allowed and seventh in yards, so they’re a far more complete team than they were last season.

Add it all up, and the Lions are fifth in the NFL in scoring differential and fourth in yardage differential.

On the other side, the Ravens are currently sitting at 4-2, good for first place in the competitive AFC North. They haven’t been quite as impressive as Detroit – they’re seventh in points and yardage differential – but they’re still a very good football team.

Surprisingly, the offense has been what has held this squad back. Their defense has been an absolute force, allowing the second-fewest yards per game, but their offense checks in as roughly league-average. That’s not what you’d expect from a Lamar Jackson-led squad.

Oct 1, 2023; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) looks to pass in the first quarter Cleveland Browns at Cleveland Browns Stadium. Mandatory Credit: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

However, the team has dealt with a bunch of key injuries for much of the early season. They’ve started to get healthier over the past few weeks, with Ronnie Stanley, Morgan Moses, and Odell Beckham Jr. all returning to the lineup. Ultimately, this is a unit that could improve as the season progresses.

Baltimore is going to have to deal with some obstacles in Week 7. In addition to facing a good squad, they’re also going to have to deal with the hangover effect after playing in London last week. That has historically been extremely difficult to overcome. 13 teams have played immediately after a London game without the benefit of a bye week, and 12 of them have trailed or been tied in the fourth quarter.

The Jaguars managed to buck that trend last week vs. the Colts, but they only managed 233 yards of total offense. Indianapolis ultimately gave that game away more than the Jaguars dominated it.

The Ravens have also historically had their issues covering as home favorites. Jackson is a sparkling 11-2 ATS as an underdog, but he’s just 25-32 as a favorite. As a home favorite in particular, his record drops to just 11-21.

That doesn’t match up well with the Lions, who have been outstanding as underdogs under head coach Dan Campbell. They’re 24-15 ATS in that split, including a perfect 1-0 this season.

With that in mind, I’m pretty surprised that this number has moved to Lions +3.0 after opening at 2.5. The betting tickets have been pretty split to start the week, while the Lions have received a slight majority in betting dollars (per the Action Network).

The sharps have liked the Ravens for most of the season, but I would not be surprised if this number dips back down to 2.5 at some point. I’m locking in Detroit +3.0 while I still can.