Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints

Is there trouble brewing in Detroit? At one point this season, the Lions looked like potential Super Bowl contenders. They were sitting at 5-1 with a top-ranked unit on both sides of the ball and a Coach of the Year favorite in Dan Campbell.

While their offense has remained elite, Detroit's defense has taken a major step back in recent weeks. It started with a blowout loss on the road at Baltimore where they allowed 503 yards and 38 points to the Ravens. Since then, the Lions have allowed at least 26 points in three of their past four games, including a Thanksgiving loss to the Packers as 7.5-point home favorites.

Since Week 7, Detroit has dropped all the way down to dead last in the league in EPA allowed per play on defense. If they can't fix their flaws that side of the ball, the Lions won't stand a chance in the playoffs. The biggest difference between the 2022 Lions and 2023 Lions was their upgraded defense, so this team is probably a bit overvalued as it stands.

A lot of their defensive struggles are due to injuries. C.J. Gardner-Johnson, Emmanuel Moseley, and Justin Houston are all on IR, and they lost impact linebacker Alex Anzalone to a hand injury on Thanksgiving. 

Nov 23, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Detroit Lions linebacker Alex Anzalone (34) pressures Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love (10) in the second half during the annual Thanksgiving Day game at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

He's likely out this week at New Orleans, which would be another blow to this already-struggling defense. Anzalone is currently ranked as the No. 19 linebacker per Pro Football Focus (PFF), and he currently ranks in the top four in sacks, passes defended, and tackles for loss. The Lions have decent depth at linebacker, but his absence would certainly be felt, as Anzalone also leads the team in tackles through 12 weeks.

On the other side, the Saints have dealt with scoring issues for most of the season. They have a top-12 unit on both sides of the ball in yards per game, but that hasn't translated to putting points on the board.

Those issues reared their head yet again in Week 12, as New Orleans had 444 yards of total offense but scored just 15 points against Atlanta. The Saints had turnovers, a Derek Carr INT and a Taysom Hill fumble, and settled for five field goals.

Nov 26, 2023; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Taysom Hill (7) runs against the Atlanta Falcons during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Thus far in 2023, the Saints rank a lowly 29th in converting red-zone opportunities into TDs. Still, their ability to move the ball on offense combined with a strong defense makes them an above-average squad. In fact, they ranked 10th in the Massey-Peabody Power Ratings entering Week 12, though losing top cornerback Marshon Lattimore to IR will likely drop them this week.

Despite that loss, I still think that the gap between the Saints and the Lions is fairly negligible. When factoring in home-field advantage for New Orleans, I think they’re the clear right side from a betting perspective.

The public unsurprisingly loves the Lions in this spot, as Detroit has gotten over 90% of the early betting tickets per the Action Network. That’s driven the Saints up to +4.5 at some locations. With the way the Lions’ defense has struggled lately, I think that this is an outstanding buy-low opportunity on the Saints at home.