Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings

The Lions entered this season with higher expectations than in any year in recent memory, and they’re close to securing the division. Detroit can officially clinch the NFC North with a win over Minnesota on Sunday. The Lions haven't won their division since 1993, which is so long ago that more than 85% of current NFL players hadn’t even been born yet.

Detroit had hit a rough patch entering last week’s contest, having lost two of their previous three games. However, they bounced back with a convincing victory over Denver. The Lions racked up 42 points and 448 yards of total offense, and the defense surrendered just 17 points.

While it was nice to see the offense erupt, the defense remains the team’s biggest question mark. Despite last week’s strong showing, this squad still has some very shaky metrics over the second half of the season. Detroit ranks just 23rd in EPA allowed per play on defense since Week 8, which is not great for a team aiming to make it to the Super Bowl for the first time in franchise history.

Nov 19, 2023; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Bears wide receiver DJ Moore (2) catches a pass for a touchdown in front of Detroit Lions cornerback Jerry Jacobs (23)during the second half at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

The Lions did make some changes heading into their last game, the most notable of which was sending Jerry Jacobs to the bench. Jacobs had been a disaster in coverage this season, ranking 89th out of 119 qualifying cornerbacks per Pro Football Focus (PFF). Instead, Detroit featured rookie Brian Branch at nickel cornerback instead of safety. The early returns were promising, but it remains to be seen whether that will fix the Lions' ailing secondary in the coming weeks.

On the other side, the Vikings managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory last Saturday against the Bengals. They held a 14-point lead entering the fourth quarter but ultimately lost the game in overtime, dropping them to just 7-7 on the year.

The big change Minnesota last week was Nick Mullens taking over at QB to replace the ineffective Joshua Dobbs. He's now the fourth QB that the Vikings have started in 2023, and it would seem that Mullens will get a second consecutive start this week.

Dec 16, 2023; Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Minnesota Vikings quarterback Nick Mullens (12) throws a pass against the Cincinnati Bengals in the first half at Paycor Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Katie Stratman-USA TODAY Sports

The Mullens experience is not for the faint of heart. He's a gunslinger a la Brett Favre, which is ironic since both players attended the same university. His decision making is questionable at best, and Mullen is a near-lock to throw an INT in just about every game. He’s now started 18 games for his career, and he’s thrown at least one INT in 14 of those.

Still, what Mullens did largely worked last week at Cincinnati. He passed for 303 yards and two TDs with a 7.87 average adjusted yards per attempt (AY/A). Mullens also finished sixth among QBs last week in EPA + CPOE composite, so it’s hard to call what he did a failure. Though he may not get quite as lucky on some of his more questionable throws in future games, he seems to be the Vikings’ best bet at QB for now.

Ultimately, this feels like a solid spot to try and buy low on Minnesota. While the Lions looked better in Week 15, I still have some major concerns about their defense. The Vikings rank a solid fourth in EPA allowed per play on defense since Week 8, so they have a major edge on that side of the ball.

This game feels very similar to the one that the Lions played two weeks ago against the Bears. The sharps were all over Chicago as a divisional home underdog, and I expect them to follow suit this week with Minnesota. The line is already down to Vikings +3.0 at most locations, so I'd suggest grabbing Vikings +3.5 if you still can.